Bills vs Dolphins Prediction & Pick for NFL Sunday Night Football
My Bills vs Dolphins prediction & pick for NFL Sunday Night Football targets the game total. The latest SNF Bills vs Dolphins odds have the Bills installed as 3-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 48 total points.
Entering Week 18, the potential playoff scenarios in the AFC were pretty wild, primarily as a result of the possible paths of the Dolphins and Bills, who face off for the AFC East crown. Not only will the winner take the division, but they will also secure the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC playoffs.
The Bills have already locked up a wild-card spot — at the very last — thanks to the Titans' upset of the Jaguars. With a loss on SNF, Buffalo would fall to the No. 7 seed and have a rematch with the Dolphins in Miami next weekend. If the Bills win, they host the Steelers.
The Dolphins will be shorthanded on Sunday Night Football as WR Jaylen Waddle, RB Raheem Mostert and CB Xavien Howard are among their inactives. The Bills, on the other hand, will get a boost on defense with the return of LB Von Miller, who was inactive last week.
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
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Bills vs Dolphins Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 48 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 48 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Bills vs. Dolphins
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Dolphins match up statistically:
Bills vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 4 | 19 | |
| Pass DVOA | 3 | 18 | |
| Rush DVOA | 5 | 21 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 3 | 12 | |
| Pass DVOA | 2 | 9 | |
| Rush DVOA | 3 | 18 | |
Buffalo has won five of six — the one loss coming in overtime against Philadelphia — to get back into the thick of the playoff race and an improbable AFC East title. How did the Bills turn the ship around?
Well, they have benefited from better luck in closer games, and the offense and defense have also gone through drastic changes on both sides of the ball. Buffalo replaced Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady at offensive coordinator before this surge, which has led to a significant shift in philosophy.
The Bills have leaned into the run game, spearheaded by James Cook. Their rush attempts per game have gone up from just over 25 to 37, with Josh Allen also almost doubling the use of his legs. That has led to a higher time of possession and fewer turnovers for a much more heavy ball-control scheme.
Meanwhile, the defense has also turned things around after a severe dip in production midway through the season due to injuries at all three levels. First, Buffalo acquired cornerback Rasul Douglas from the Green Bay Packers to replace Tre'Davious White. Douglas has fit perfectly in McDermott's zone-heavy scheme from the jump and has alleviated the ask from the other defensive backs.
McDermott made a few other schematic changes while some of the lesser experienced players have improved with more reps. With DaQuan Jones recently returning along the interior of the defensive line, this unit should continue to trend up.
Bill vs Dolphins Picks | FanDuel
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Similar to the Bills, the Dolphins are one of seven teams I thought could realistically win the Super Bowl since the beginning of the year. Not only does Miami sport one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, it also has a defense with a ton of talent that I expected to peak heading into the playoffs after gaining familiarity with Vic Fangio's scheme.
However, I have soured a bit on the potential ceiling of the Dolphins, primarily due the inordinate amount of injuries they have suffered in recent weeks. The offensive line still isn't fully healthy, and Jaylen Waddle's status remains in doubt for a second straight week. Even Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are not quite at 100%, which makes Mike McDaniels' offense much easier to contain.
The defense lost Bradley Chubb in garbage time in Baltimore, which hurts the pass rush even more after previously losing Jaelan Phillips. Starting cornerback Xavien Howard is also expected to miss this game after getting carted off in the first half against the Ravens. That's not ideal against Buffalo's elite offensive attack.
It's just going to be hard for Miami to reach its potential without a full deck of cards.
Bills vs. Dolphins
Betting Picks & Predictions
After adjusting for the situation and injuries, I make Buffalo close to a field goal favorite, so I don't see much value in the spread.
I will say the Bills do match up pretty well with the Dolphins on paper since their defense can generate pressure without blitzing and excels at guarding the middle of the field, where Tagovailoa loves to attack.
If I were to look at any bet in this game, it would be the under. Buffalo now features run-heavy, ball-control offense that isn't hitting the frequency of explosive plays down the field we have been accustomed to seeing. I also expect Miami to lean on its run game a bit more with the injuries it is dealing with at quarterback, wide receiver and offensive line. And while Miami's defensive injuries aren't minor, it does have decent depth at some of those positions.
Both defenses do a decent job of preventing explosive plays by design, which is always conducive to an under. And with so much at stake, you could see each team play a bit tighter with more conservative play calling, especially early on in a contest between familiar foes.
