The Buffalo Bills (1-0) and Miami Dolphins (1-0) will start Week 2 on Thursday Night Football live on Prime Video. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points over the Bills, while the game total is 48.5.
Buffalo hits the road to face the division-rival Dolphins in primetime. Josh Allen led Buffalo to a come-from-behind win over the Cardinals in Week 1 that was powered by a run-heavy attack with James Cook. The Dolphins were down 10 points to the Jaguars but got big plays from Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill to beat the Jaguars. Raheem Mostert is out for Miami tonight, while De'Von Achane is questionable and a true game-time decision.
Let's break down my Bills vs. Dolphins prediction.
Bills vs. Dolphins Picks
SPREAD
My Thursday Night Football pick is backing Buffalo against the spread. I'm willing to back the Bills +2.5, but be sure to monitor the latest NFL odds in case it moves to +3.
MONEYLINE
I have this matchup closer to a pick'em, which means there’s also likely some value on the Bills moneyline at +120. I'd rather take the +2.5 (or even buy the half point to +3, -125 at DraftKings) considering the potential rain and showers that could lead to some missed extra points that can throw us off of the key number of three.
TOTAL
I am in line with the over/under here.
My Pick: Bills +2.5
Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
- Bills vs. Dolphins Point Spread: Bills +2.5 (-105) | Dolphins -2.5 (-115)
- Bills vs. Dolphins Total: Over/Under 48.5
- Bills vs. Dolphins Moneyline: Bills +120 | Dolphins -145
My Thursday Night Football Preview & Pick
The Bills were trailing the Cardinals 17-3 late in the first half but rallied to outscore them 31-11 for the rest of the game. I anticipated the Bills might start slowly, which is why I backed the Cardinals +6.5. The Bills had significant turnover on both sides of the ball, especially on offense by moving on from their top wide receivers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. With so many new pass catchers for Josh Allen to integrate, I thought it could take a game or two for the offense to gel.
However, in typical Allen fashion, he took matters into his own hands — or rather, his legs — by rushing nine times for 39 yards and two touchdowns. I expect the Bills' offense to continue improving as Allen builds chemistry with his new targets.
Defensively, I expected the Dolphins to start slowly after losing Christian Wilkins and with Bradley Chubb beginning the season on the PUP list. They also transitioned from defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to Anthony Weaver, who came over from Baltimore, and it may take some time for players to adapt to the new scheme.
Jalen Ramsey played through a hamstring injury in Week 1 and while that didn’t show up in the box score, rookie Brian Thomas Jr. burned him deep on a potential 40-yard touchdown. Ramsey opted to tackle him for a blatant pass interference call, giving the Jags a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line instead of allowing the touchdown. It’s hard to see Ramsey being much closer to 100% on a short week.
With the Dolphins defense still not at full strength, I believe Allen and the Buffalo offense should be able to move the ball effectively on Thursday night. It’s also worth noting that Allen has routinely had success against Miami, throwing for at least two touchdowns in all 13 of his career starts against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are a team that tends to dominate weaker opponents but often struggles against Super Bowl-caliber teams. This was especially evident in their matchups against the Bills last season which saw them lose 48-20 and 21-14.
The Bills have done an excellent job in the past of containing the focal point of Miami’s passing attack: Tyreek Hill. The perennial All-Pro has been limited to receiving lines of 7/69/0, 7/82/1, 3/58/0, 9/69/1 and 2/33/0 in his five games against Buffalo since being traded to the Dolphins.
Despite the potency of the Dolphins offense, they were due for some regression on third-and-long heading into this season. Last year, Miami averaged +0.13 EPA/play on third-and-long, ranking second in the league. While we’d expect an offense like Miami’s to be above average in these situations, maintaining that level of efficiency was unlikely. Sure enough, the Dolphins ranked closer to the middle of the pack in Week 1, sitting 15th with a -0.18 EPA/play on third-and-long.
Additionally, their running game struggled in Week 1. After ranking third in Rush DVOA last season, Miami is 24th after one week. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane both had tough outings, with Mostert posting -3.0 rushing yards over expected and Achane at -1.9, according to NextGenStats.
Mostert has already been ruled out, and Achane is expected to be a game-time decision due to an ankle injury. We could see Jeff Wilson and rookie Jaylen Wright handle the RB snaps on Thursday night.
If the running game continues to struggle for a second straight week, the Dolphins could find themselves facing more third-and-long situations, where they were already due for regression.
My Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
Both teams rallied from double-digit deficits to secure wins in Week 1, but I think the Bills are more likely to carry that momentum into Week 2. Their 34-28 victory had an expected score of 39-21 based on the metrics that fuel our Luck Rankings, while the Dolphins' 20-17 win was closer to an expected score of 22-21.
The Bills typically have the edge in this divisional rivalry since their game plan typically relies on Allen improvising and taking control. The short week could play to their advantage.
Additionally, there’s a chance of rain or showers in the forecast, which could put more emphasis on the run game. The Bills seem to have an edge in rushing efficiency after Week 1, while the Dolphins might be without at least one of their top running backs — and maybe two. That further tilts the scales in favor of Buffalo.
Pick: Bills +2.5
Betting Trends
- 73% of bets and 47% of the money are on the Bills to cover the spread.
- 28% of bets and 70% of the money are on the under.
- 80% of bets and 47% of the money on the moneyline are on the Dolphins.
How to Watch Thursday Night Football
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
Bills vs. Dolphins is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Thursday Night. The game will be broadcast live on Prime Video.
