The Buffalo Bills (13-3) will face the New England Patriots (3-13) in NFL Week 18. Kickoff is scheduled 1 p.m. EST from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
Let's get into my Bills vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks for today's game.
The Bills are favored by 3.5 points over the Patriots (Bills -3.5), while Buffalo is -175 on the moneyline and New England +145. The game total is 34.5 (-115o / -105u).
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction
Spread
I'll pass on betting this spread. We don't have much information on how much of Josh Allen we'll see, so I'll shift my bet to the total.
Over/Under
While I'm not looking to bet either side, I'm looking to fade both of these defenses.
The Bills allowed 21 points at home to these Patriots two weeks ago and gave up 40 in the two previous weeks. New England’s defense, meanwhile, is so bad that I think Buffalo gets at least two touchdowns.
My Pick: Over 34.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Patriots Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 34.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -118 | 34.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
- Bills vs. Patriots spread: Bills -3.5 (-102), Patriots +3.5 (-118)
- Bills vs. Patriots over/under: 34.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Bills vs. Patriots moneyline: Bills -175, Patriots +145
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs. Patriots Betting Preview
- 69% of bets and 70% of the money on the spread are on the Bills to cover.
- 85% of bets and 78% of the money are on the OVER.
- 87% of bets and 95% of the money on the moneyline are on the Bills.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Picks
Obviously, this is a difficult game to handicap. We don’t have concrete information on how long we’ll see Josh Allen or Drake Maye, or how much of the Bills' starters we’ll see in general.
Mitch Trubisky is likely to take most of the snaps under center for Buffalo, but it sounds like Mike White is going to see some action, as well. It sounds like the Bills are going to treat this one as a glorified preseason game.
Maye, meanwhile, is questionable due to a hand injury. Head coach Jerod Mayo has said his team will be playing to win the game, although Patriots fans might be rooting for Buffalo with New England entering the final week of the regular season in possession of the No. 1 overall pick.
So, that’s not much help.
The only sure thing about this game is that the Patriots are not a good football team. Are they better than the Bills’ backups, though?
I’d love to say we should find a way to bet on Maye here. He has shown impressive flashes during his rookie season, and the Bills defense isn’t playing very well down the stretch.
I’m going to do just that — but not by betting on the Patriots.
New England allowed 40 points to the Chargers last week and is going to be without CB Christian Gonzalez this week. Whoever is under center for Buffalo should be able to lead the offense to points.
As of Saturday afternoon, this total was 36.5 points across the board. Our experts, Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon, have this total projected at 39.5 and 38 points, so I’m playing the over up to 37.
Obviously, it’s not ideal to bet an over when you aren’t 100% sure who’s going to be under center. Neither defense is trending upward, though, and there are clear skies in the forecast despite winds in the mid teens.
Plug your nose and bet this over up to 36.
My Pick: Over 34.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Patriots Weather
