If Tom Brady leaving New England to end a dynasty that has ruled the NFL for the better part of the past 20 years is 'A New Hope,' then Cam Newton signing with the Patriots is 'The Empire Strikes Back' — at least according to our model.
After simulating the season 10,000 times with Newton as the starter, the Patriots saw significant boosts across all their 2020 projections.
Let's take a look at how their Super Bowl and playoff chances improved, what their projected scores are for all 16 games, and how this all shifted the postseason hopes for the other 31 teams.
Patriots Super Bowl & Playoff Chances With Cam Newton
| Patriots Chances | With Cam | Before Cam |
|---|---|---|
| To Win the Super Bowl | 5.73% | 1.21% |
| To Make the Super Bowl | 11.42% | 2.92% |
| To Make AFC Championship | 24.00% | 7.96% |
| To Win the AFC East | 57.46% | 30.21% |
| To Make the Playoffs | 74.36% | 43.78% |
The Patriots now have the sixth-best chance to win the Super Bowl, according to our model's projections. That's even better than the current betting market: The Patriots' 20-1 odds position them in a three-way tie for the seventh-best at PointsBet.
The Patriots' chances to win the AFC (11.42%) are the third-best, behind only the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs (27.33%) and the Ravens (24.12%).
Following the NFL's schedule release in early May, our model actually gave the Bills the best chance to win the AFC East with a 39.26% to 30.21% edge over the Patriots. But now with Newton on board, New England is back in the driver's seat with a 57.46% projected chance to win its 12th straight division title.
Projected Scores For Every Patriots Game
Along with significant boosts to their projected postseason chances, Newton also bumped the Patriots' average wins from 7.79 to 9.45 in our model.
New England is projected to be favored in 12 games compared to an underdog in only two (and a pick'em in the other two).
Here's how our model is projecting scores and spreads for all 16 of their games:
| Week | Proj. Score | Proj. Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dolphins 18.6 @ Patriots 24.4 | -5.8 |
| 2 | Patriots 23.1 @ Seahawks 23.1 | PK |
| 3 | Raiders 17.5 @ Patriots 25.1 | -7.6 |
| 4 | Patriots 22.5 @ Chiefs 26.3 | +3.8 |
| 5 | Broncos 17.3 @ Patriots 23.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | BYE | |
| 7 | 49ers 22.8 @ Patriots 25.1 | -2.3 |
| 8 | Patriots 20.8 @ Bills 19.4 | -1.4 |
| 9 | Patriots 22.2 @ Jets 17.7 | -4.5 |
| 10 | Ravens 23.5 @ Patriots 23.5 | PK |
| 11 | Patriots 23.0 @ Texans 20.8 | -2.2 |
| 12 | Cardinals 21.5 @ Patriots 25.6 | -4.1 |
| 13 | Patriots 21.3 @ Chargers 19.9 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Patriots 21.2 @ Rams 23.4 | +2.2 |
| 15 | Patriots 23.0 @ Dolphins 20.1 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Bills 18.2 @ Patriots 21.9 | -3.7 |
| 17 | Jets 16.1 @ Patriots 23.9 | -7.8 |
Updated NFL Super Bowl & Playoff Projections
Finally, for a full understanding of how Newton heading to New England impacts the NFL overall, below are our model's updated projections for all 32 teams (in alphabetical order).
Arizona Cardinals
- Projected Win Total: 8.08
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 14.02%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 40.39%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.31%
Atlanta Falcons
- Projected Win Total: 7.54
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 11.12%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 31.33%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.98%
Baltimore Ravens
- Projected Win Total: 10.59
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 60.46%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 87.48%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 14.52%
Buffalo Bills
- Projected Win Total: 8.05
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 24.61%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 46.10%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.59%
Carolina Panthers
- Projected Win Total: 6.12
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 2.76%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 10.71%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.12%
Chicago Bears
- Projected Win Total: 6.92
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 11.25%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 22.26%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.30%
Cincinnati Bengals
- Projected Win Total: 6.5
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 3.40%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 16.40%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.12%
Cleveland Browns
- Projected Win Total: 7.16
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 5.83%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 24.88%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.26%
Dallas Cowboys
- Projected Win Total: 9.49
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 60.25%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 74.83%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 6.18%
Denver Broncos
- Projected Win Total: 6.95
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 7.00%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 23.57%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.31%
Detroit Lions
- Projected Win Total: 7.89
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 23.36%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 39.85%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.23%
Green Bay Packers
- Projected Win Total: 8.07
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 26.36%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 43.14%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.79%
Houston Texans
- Projected Win Total: 7.13
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 10.96%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 26.55%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.64%
Indianapolis Colts
- Projected Win Total: 9.43
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 48.29%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 71.53%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 5.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Projected Win Total: 6.02
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 4.03%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 12.04%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs
- Projected Win Total: 10.71
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 75.67%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 89.88%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 15.99%
Los Angeles Rams
- Projected Win Total: 8.2
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 15.51%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 43.18%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.75%
Los Angeles Chargers
- Projected Win Total: 7.94
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 14.40%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 41.36%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.06%
Miami Dolphins
- Projected Win Total: 7.22
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 13.71%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 30.17%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.40%
Minnesota Vikings
- Projected Win Total: 8.67
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 39.03%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 55.88%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 3.29%
New England Patriots
- Projected Win Total: 9.45
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 57.46%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 74.36%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 5.73%
New Orleans Saints
- Projected Win Total: 10.04
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 56.25%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 79.64%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 10.19%
New York Giants
- Projected Win Total: 6.56
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 8.66%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 18.18%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.36%
New York Jets
- Projected Win Total: 5.81
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 4.22%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 10.13%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.07%
Las Vegas Raiders
- Projected Win Total: 6.21
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 2.93%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 13.06%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles
- Projected Win Total: 8.23
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 28.95%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 48.22%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 2.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Projected Win Total: 9.37
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 30.31%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 68.76%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 4.21%
San Francisco 49ers
- Projected Win Total: 10.14
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 53.34%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 80.01%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 10.83%
Seattle Seahawks
- Projected Win Total: 8.29
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 17.13%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 44.84%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 2.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Projected Win Total: 9.06
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 29.87%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 62.36%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 4.24%
Tennessee Titans
- Projected Win Total: 8.98
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 36.72%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 63.73%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 3.30%
Washington Redskins
- Projected Win Total: 5.18
- Projected Odds to Win Division: 2.14%
- Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 5.18%
- Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.00%
