With the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers set to duke it out on Monday Night Football, I’ve put together a two-leg, same game parlay featuring star receivers from each side.
Check out my Cowboys vs. Chargers SGP picks and analysis below.
Keenan Allen
Over 6.5 Receptions (-136)
Allen has assumed a premier volume role in the Chargers' passing offense. With 44 targets in four games, Allen has amassed a 30% target share from quarterback Justin Herbert.
The 11-year veteran has a 34.7% first-read share, per Fantasy Points Data, which ranks 12th in the NFL. With Mike Williams sidelined for the season, I expect Allen’s usage to continue on an upward trajectory over the course of the season.
The Cowboys employ man coverage at the league’s third-highest rate (per Pro Football Focus). Not only does Allen have the Chargers' highest target rate against man coverage (33%), it’s a tougher matchup for Austin Ekeler (19% target rate against man coverage in 2022) in his return to action.
Allen has cleared this line in three of four games, and I have him slated for close to eight catches tonight.
CeeDee Lamb
50+ Receiving Yards (-310)
There's been a lot of discussion regarding Lamb and the volume of targets he’s been getting, capped off with Jerry Jones’ curious comments about wanting to get the ball to his tight ends.
I’m looking past all of that, because Lamb remains the primary target in the Cowboys passing game, and he has a quality matchup tonight.
The Chargers have allowed five wide receivers to clear this line in their four contests, including big games allowed to Tyreek Hill (218 yards), Justin Jefferson (149) and Davante Adams (75).
Lamb has gone over this line in three of his five games this season (with one miss at 49 yards) despite the Cowboys playing the majority of their games in fluky game scripts.
Dak Prescott and Lamb reportedly met to talk through the receiver's frustrations around his volume over the last two games (11 targets). I expect the resolution to be a few more targets Lamb’s way.
I have the Cowboys receiver projected at 75 yards.
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