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Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
| Prop | Patrick Mahomes Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-115) |
| Matchup | Chargers vs. Chiefs |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
In a game that features two of the league’s best passing offenses, both flush with production from skill positions, going with Patrick Mahomes' rushing prop might raise some eyebrows. But that’s exactly where I see the most value on the board.
Let’s start with the basics.
Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Mahomes is 19-of-33 (58%) to the over on this line, with both his mean and median yardage sitting at 21-22% more than our line of 16.5. Last season, he ran for 32 and 45 yards against the Chargers.
The low line could be an overreaction to Mahomes’ five-yard output last week. What's notable about that game, though, is that the Cardinals blitzed Mahomes on a ridiculous 68% of his dropbacks, by far the highest single-game rate of his career.
It was a questionable strategy, as Mahomes excels against the blitz, as evidenced by his 360-passing yard, five-touchdown performance. Last season, Mahomes was the NFL’s eighth-highest-rated passer when facing extra pressure at 114.4, compared to 95.5 when he wasn’t blitzed.
And as is the case with most quarterbacks, Mahomes’ scramble rate is more than twice as high when he’s not blitzed (7% to 3%). Last season, he led the NFL with 45 scrambles when he wasn’t blitzed.
The Chargers, with their star pass-rushing duo of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, will be more inclined to let their defensive front generate pressure. The duo combined for 4.5 sacks in Week 1, with the Chargers blitzing at a 16% rate (eighth lowest for Week 1).
In what should be a fast-paced game, I have Mahomes projected close to four scrambles. With his two-year average running at 7.8 yards per scramble, I have the Texas Tech alum pegged for 25 yards rushing on Thursday night.
I'd play this prop up to 18.5.
FanDuel Quickslip: Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards
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