Chiefs vs Bills Anytime Touchdown Props: James Cook, Justin Watson TD Bets
In the table below, you'll find each of Gilles Gallant's Chiefs vs Bills Anytime Touchdown Props for the AFC Divisional Round. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific Anytime TD bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:30 p.m. | |
| 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Chiefs vs. Bills
James Cook
Anytime Touchdown (+150)
The second-year RB has been a frustrating player to bet in this market because Josh Allen has consistently vultured him at the goal line. The good news for Cook is this is a decent matchup for him as the Bills' main pass-catching back, a profile of player the Chiefs have struggled with this season. K.C. ranks 21st in DVOA against RB as receivers and has allowed four TDs.
Cook has 18 red-zone touches over the last five games and dropped an easy touchdown on Monday against the Steelers. Also, for what it’s worth, he scored when the Bills faced the Chiefs during the regular season and finished with five catches and 83 yards in that game.
Cook's odds aren't sexy at +150 but when the Bills get to the goal line, they’re not going to be so predictable and have Allen carry the ball right away until they need to have it. Cook will at least get the first few goal-line opportunities, whether that's a carry or a quick pass to the end zone.
I had expected odds for Cook at +120 given his recent volume carrying the football and the Chiefs ranking 27th in DVOA against the run. At +150, you could also potentially wait until closer to kickoff to see if the odds go up more.
Pick: James Cook Anytime Touchdown (+150)
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Justin Watson
Anytime Touchdown (+550)
I took a long shot last week with TE Noah Gray at +800. While he didn’t come through, I still am in the camp of taking a Chiefs player with longer odds, like Justin Watson at +550 or Marques Valdes-Scantling at +850.
We know Patrick Mahomes will find a way to buy time in the pocket with his legs, which means downfield threats like Watson and MVS can hopefully get open.
The Bills ranked 23rd in DVOA against deep passes and 25th in DVOA against opposing WR2s, so I’d likely opt for Watson. He’s playing the second-most snaps of any Chiefs receiver and he has had flashes of success against both man and zone defense. Meanwhile, Valdes-Scantling hasn’t been effective against any defense this year.
Watson was one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs offense in the second half of the season, catching all three of his touchdowns after the team's Week 10 bye.
Pick: Justin Watson Anytime Touchdown (+550)
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