PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Davis Mills Completions
| Prop | Davis Mills Under 22.5 Completions (-120) |
| Matchup | Texans vs. Jaguars |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
A year after finishing in the bottom three of the NFL, the Texans and Jaguars have had very different starts to their 2022 seasons. While there is significant reason for optimism with the 2-2 Jaguars, the same can’t be said for the winless Texans.
And even though the Texans come into Duval County as 7-point underdogs, I’m looking to fade quarterback Davis Mills’ completions prop.
Mills has stayed under this line in three out of his four games this season, with one miss by virtue of overtime. His completion percentage of 62% ranks 22nd amongst qualified quarterbacks.
The Jaguars pass defense, which ranks seventh in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric, has been stingy with opposing quarterbacks. Jacksonville has only allowed 21 completions per game on the eighth-lowest completion percentage (59.6%).
But where I see the most value on this play is with the pace. The Jaguars are one of the more run heavy teams in the NFL (44% run play percentage ranks 11th). Against Houston’s bottom barrel rush defense (29th in DVOA), the Jags should have no issue moving the ball and controlling the clock.
With the Texans likely to get their rookie running back Dameon Pierce going early, I just don’t see the volume Mills needs to go over this line.
I have the second-year signal caller at just shy of 20 completions on Sunday.
