DeAndre Hopkins Receptions
| Prop | Over 6.5 Receptions (+115; playable to -105) |
| Matchup | 49ers vs. Cardinals |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
After another wild NFL Sunday, we shift our focus to Mexico City for a matchup between the 49ers and Cardinals. My favorite prop of the game is on Arizona receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
Due to a suspension, Hopkins got a late start to this season. However, in four games played since returning, he’s reeled in 36 catches, including at least 10 in three of those contests. His target share over that span is a robust 32%, easily pacing the Cardinals.
Colt McCoy will be taking the snaps, which you could argue is a boost to Hopkins.
In McCoy’s four starts over the last two seasons, 82 of his 127 (65%) passes have gone to wide receivers; he's completed 74% of those throws. These numbers compare favorably to Kyler Murray’s — 54% wide receiver target share; 74% completion percentage.
McCoy excels at getting the ball out quickly, with a 2.2-second time to throw per dropback, compared to 2.6 for Murray. Short passes will remain in vogue against the 49ers' stout pass rush.
Hopkins has seen a higher percentage of short targets, with a 9.0-yard average depth of target (vs. 13.0 last season). Of Hopkins' 46 targets, 26 have traveled less than 10 air yards (57%).
Coming in as 10-point underdogs, the Cardinals should find themselves in plenty of passing situations. The 49ers also possess a very strong rush defense, ranking 4th in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric. And in an already brutal matchup for tight ends (the 49ers allow the 10th-fewest tight end receptions per game), Arizona will be without Zach Ertz.
Hopkins dealt with a hamstring issue this past week, but reports are that he’s good to go. I’ll take my chances on the All-Pro’s health, as I have him projected for eight catches.
