Prop Bet Guy will be contributing to Action Network's NFL coverage this season, also tracking his bets in the Action Network app. Follow him on Twitter.
NFL Playoffs Player Prop | Packers vs. 49ers
There aren’t many receivers with standalone rush yard props – in fact, there might only be one. But Deebo Samuel isn’t solely used as a wide receiver in the traditional sense.
Samuel finished the regular season with 225 rushing yards across 15 games. While that is his lowest total since Kyle Shanahan unleashed him as a dual threat in 2021, I do expect Samuel to see enough volume on the ground to clear this number.
Shanahan has been open about limiting Samuel’s workload on the ground until the games start to matter more. The divisional round of the playoffs would fit that mold; Samuel has registered at least three rush attempts in each of the 49ers' six postseason games over the last two seasons.
Running back Elijah Mitchell has failed to establish himself as a reliable No. 2 behind Christian McCaffrey, and Jordan Mason has been used primarily in mop-up duty. I expect Samuel to essentially operate as the backup to McCaffrey today.
And it’s a plus matchup, with the Packers allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season, which ranks 24th in the NFL. They’ve shown some susceptibility on the outside, especially on jet sweeps and end-arounds. In three of their last five regular-season contests, the Packers allowed a wide receiver to clear this line.
Rain is also expected in San Francisco tonight. While I’m not expecting that to hinder the 49ers' high-powered passing attack, we could see Shanahan err on the side of conservatism and dial up Samuel on the ground a bit more.
At six yards per carry this season, we only need three totes from the South Carolina product to clear this line. In a plus matchup, with some edges around added volume, I have Samuel’s rushing total projected in the low 20s.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
