PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards
| Prop | Deebo Samuel Over 56.5 Receiving Yards |
| Matchup | Rams vs. 49ers |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
With Jimmy Garrappolo back at quarterback for the 49ers, I’m loving the value on Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop.
Dating back to last season, the versatile receiver is 11 for 16 to the over on this line when Garrappolo takes at least half the snaps under center.
In 2021, Samuel was second in the NFL picking up 2.98 yards per route run. After a pedestrian first two games as a receiver this season, he registered 2.52 yards per route run last week with the game plan geared more toward Garrappolo’s strengths.
MNF Boost: Kupp to Have 80+ Receiving Yards & Deebo to Have 80+ Rushing & Receiving Yards
While the Rams might be perceived as a tough matchup, I love this spot for Samuel. Dating back to 2020, he’s 5-for-5 to the over on this line against Los Angeles. I'm not expecting Jalen Ramsey to shadow Samuel tonight.
In fact, the Rams have struggled against their opponent's best receivers. Stefon Diggs, Drake London and Marquise Brown all put up massive lines against the Rams so far this season (122, 86 and 140 yards, respectively).
Also, the Rams’ rush defense ranks second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, so this should serve as a great spot for Samuel as a receiver.
This line is too light for Samuel with Jimmy G. back under center. I have the versatile All Pro’s receiving yards projected in the low 70s and would play this up to 60.5.
