The Denver Broncos (10-7) and Buffalo Bills (13-4) will square off in the NFL Wild Card Round on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. The game will broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
The Bills are 8.5-point favorites over the Broncos on the spread (Bills -8.5), with the over/under set at 47.5 total points. Buffalo is a -450 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +375 to pull off the upset.
Bo Nix and the Broncos punched their ticket to the playoffs with a 38-0 rout of the Chiefs' backups in Week 18. Nix completed 26-of-29 passes for 321 yards and 4 TDs. But MVP favorite Josh Allen and the Bills are still heavy favorites against Denver in the opening round of the playoffs. Allen and his offensive weapons look poised for a deep run, currently boasting the fourth-shortest Super Bowl odds.
Let's get to my Bills vs Broncos predictions and NFL picks for this Sunday.
Broncos vs. Bills Prediction
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in today's Broncos-Bills game.
Over/Under
My best bet for this matchup is on the Under at 48 total points.
As I detail in my analysis below, the Broncos and Bills both benefited from facing not-so-great defenses throughout the regular season.
My Pick: Under 48
Broncos vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Broncos vs. Bills spread: Bills -8.5
- Broncos vs. Bills over/under: 47.5 total points
- Broncos vs. Bills moneyline: Broncos +350, Bills -450
- Broncos vs. Bills best bet: Under 48
MyBroncos vs. Bills best bet is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Wild Card Round Preview
This game features offenses that have scored a combined 950 points this season compared to 838.7 by Expected Score, putting this game strongly in expected scoring regression territory.
Led by Josh Allen, the Bills have a fantastic offense — but their 525 points are 83.5 over expected. And while you may be inclined to say that an Allen offense should come in above expected, our Expected Scores adjust for the QB and offense quality — as well as the opposing defense quality — and Buffalo is still scoring at an unsustainable rate relative to the game situations they've found themselves in.
Case in point: The Bills came in just 12 points over expected last year, and 11 points under expected the year prior. That nets out to essentially right at expectation for two years.
That unsustainable scoring rate is inflating the Bills' team total, but I also think there's room for Denver to stay under as well.
Bo Nix had a strong rookie season, but he's still a rookie starting in his first playoff game, on the road, in cold weather. There's also questions as to the quality of defenses Nix has faced, with Denver facing the eighth-easiest opposing defensive schedule.
Buffalo loves to play two-high safety zone looks, which should keep explosive plays down for the Broncos. Nix tends to struggle against zone coverages as well, throwing nine of his 12 interceptions this year against zone.
It gets even worse, as Nix's best zone performance is against Cover 3, but that single-high safety coverage is the one Buffalo plays the least relative to league averages.
Instead, the Bills rank inside the top 12 each in Cover 2, 4 and 6 usage. Nix's adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) is just 4.96 compared to 6.98 against Cover 3 and 7.48 against Cover 1.
The Luck Total in this game is -5.7, and Luck Unders in the NFL playoffs are 23-8 (74.2%) to the under since 2018. Both offenses have faced bottom-eight opposing defensive schedules, meaning these defenses are significant upgrades compared to what they've faced on average this year.
Given both 48 and 47 are the two most key numbers between 44 and 51, I'll grab under 48 considering my recency-weighted, schedule-adjusted Expected Scores have this a shade under 47.
My Pick: Under 48
Bills vs. Broncos Betting Trends
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