The Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills play the first game of the NFL Wild Card Sunday tripleheader. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Bills are 8.5-point favorites on the spread over the Broncos with the game total set at 47.5 points. The Bills are -500 moneyline favorites and the Broncos are +375 underdogs.
Let’s get into our Broncos vs. Bills predictions, props, parlay and more for Saturday afternoon.
Broncos vs. Bills Odds
- Spread: Broncos +8.5 (-110), Bills -8.5 (-110)
- Total: 48 (-110/-110)
- Moneylines: Broncos +375, Bills -500
Odds via bet365. Get the latest NFL odds here.
Broncos vs. Bills Predictions
- Against the Spread: Broncos +9 (-110)
- Over/Under Pick: Over 47.5 (-112)
- Player Props: Keon Coleman Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Broncos vs. Bills Parlay
You can parlay our three picks (the spread and over/under) at DraftKings for a +675 same-game parlay.
- Broncos +8.5
- Over 47.5
- Keon Coleman Under 29.5 Receiving Yards
Broncos vs. Bills SGP: +675
Broncos vs. Bills Prediction Against the Spread
By John LanFranca
I like the Broncos to make this a competitive game on Sunday.
It's not often you get to back a team that has a defense as Denver's as an underdog this large. The Broncos finished as the second-best defense in yards per play allowed (4.9) and opponents scored touchdowns on just 16% of possessions against them — the lowest rate for any defense in football.
The Bills rested their players in Week 18, but from Week 9-16, no team played worse pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks had a 105.1 passer rating against Buffalo, as the Bills surrendered the most touchdown passes in the NFL over that span.
Buffalo allowed the third-highest completion percentage and generated the fourth-fewest amount of sacks over that span as well. Opposing passers were both comfortable and efficient, which could spell trouble against a surging Bo Nix.
According to ESPN data, Denver was second in the NFL in pass block win rate. Sean Payton has implemented an offense around Nix's strengths and it has been a perfect fit — 28% of Nix's attempts have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, the third most in the league. Buffalo will struggle to get pressure on Nix, which should help the Broncos offense avoid negative plays.
Avoiding negative plays and turnovers is crucial when facing the Bills as they led the NFL in points off turnovers and turnover differential. The Broncos offense should be able to stay on schedule and they have enough individual playmakers to hit explosive plays.
Even if the Bills offense comes out firing on all cylinders, a backdoor cover is absolutely in the cards. If the Buffalo offense starts slow against a Broncos defense that is top five in DVOA against both the run and pass, Denver may cruise to an easy cover.
Pick: Broncos +9 (-110); Bet to +8
Broncos vs. Bills Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The 47.5 point total in this game breaks down to the Bills being implied for 28 points, while Denver coming in just under 20.
That feels overly pessimistic for the Broncos. Their offense turned a corner late in the season, mostly thanks to the emergence of rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Since mid-November, Nix and the Broncos have scored at least 24 points in every game, topping 30 in four of those seven games. They've played some tough defenses in that span, including the Chargers (ninth in DVOA).
The Bills defense ranks just behind the Chargers defensively at 11th, so I'd be fairly surprised to see the Broncos get shut down. I also would be surprised to see this turn into a close game — which means the Bills and Josh Allen also putting up points in the process.
Despite being in Buffalo in January, the weather also isn't expected to be much of an issue with temperatures around 30 degrees and just a light breeze. A major change in the forecast is the one thing that would keep me from betting the over.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-112 to -120)
