Dolphins vs. Bills Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
This Josh Allen bet has legs.
Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey hasn't called a designed quarterback run for his mercurial franchise QB all season, and for good reason. Buffalo has faced off against mediocre opponents — what's the sense in risking their main guy?
But, for massive games, the Bills step it up with the QB draws and rollouts, digging into the well in order to utilize one of Allen's key strengths: his ability to bulldoze his opponents with his legs.
Over the last two seasons, it's clear the Bills have made a concerted effort to save Allen's legs for big-time opponents:
- 22 games vs. non-playoff teams: 6.4 carries a game for 39.5 yards
- 16 games vs. playoff teams: 8.7 carries for 53 yards. Allen has rushed for 44+ in 10-of-16
Overall, Allen increases his rushing attempts and yards by about 34% against playoff-caliber opposition.
These stats are courtesy of my colleague Brandon Anderson, who recommends Allen's rushing yards props strongly.
The best price on the market is with DraftKings at +210 for Allen to rush for 50 or more yards.
If you're feeling more conservative, the best market price for his regular rushing yard prop — 35.5 — is with FanDuel at a vig of -113.
In terms of an actual pick on this game, perhaps the most value lies in the Bills' futures. After an opening week loss against the Jets, Buffalo's futures got a whole lot cheaper. They might crater in value if they beat the Dolphins — read more here for more insight.
