Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here! Action Network NFL betting expert Sean Koerner has identified his top spread and total bets for Sunday, September 8. Let's get take a look at his expert NFL picks against the spread & over/under for today's slate.
Sean Koerner's NFL Week 1 Picks (Sept. 8)
Koerner's Cardinals vs Bills ATS Pick: Bet on Arizona to Cover the Spread
The Bills are a team with a ton of turnover on both sides of the ball. They lost their entire starting secondary from the beginning of last season and will be without LB Matt Milano who was placed on IR. They face a Cardinals offense that will be much better this year. They also landed one of the top WR prospects we’ve seen in Marvin Harrison Jr, who should provide an immediate boost to the offense
Kyler wasn’t able to make his season debut until Week 10 last year following his 2022 ACL tear. I have to imagine he was never really 100% recovered, which impacted his mobility. A full season removed, he should be closer to 100%
The Cardinals defense should still be an issue, but they added some players in free agency and through the draft which could provide some help. The Bills offense lost their top two WRs with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
Josh Allen will have a handful of new pass catchers he’s throwing to, which means it could take the offense a few weeks to start to jell. I like the Cards here, as they are a team I’m expecting quite a bit of improvement from (at least on offense), while the Bills could take a step back this year and get off to a bit of a slow start.
Koerner's Cowboys vs Browns Over/Under Pick: Take the Under
The Browns offensive line has always been one of their strengths, but they are dealing with some key injuries on the 0-line. LT Jedrick Wills has already been ruled out. It’s unclear if they are going to slide RT Jack Conklin to the left side or have James Hudson (who struggled big time last year) fill in. Conklin himself is questionable with a knee injury.
Not a good time to be shuffling the o-line, as they face the Cowboys in Week 1, who led the league in pressure rate last season. Deshaun Watson struggled when facing pressure, finishing outside the top 40 in all key metrics. He’s also taken a sack on 24% of pressure he’s faced since joining the Browns which is one of the worst rates in the league over the last two seasons.
The Cowboys offense should take a step back this year. They lost Tyron Smith up front, so now first-round pick Tyler Guyton has to face off against Myles Garrett in his debut. CeeDee Lamb could be somewhat limited due to his hold out lasting through most of training camp.
I expect the Cowboys offense to get off to a slow start against a Browns defense that ranked second in DVOA last year and played especially well at home, allowing a league low 13.9 points per game. The Cowboys averaged almost 14 more points per game at home than they did on the road (‘yea…here we goooo’ cadence by Dak?).
We should see winds around 15-20 mph, which could also have a slight impact on the passing game.
