The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) face the Buffalo Bills (2-0) on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bills are 5.5-point favorites with the game total set at 45.5. Buffalo is a -250 favorite on the moneyline, while Jacksonville is +200 to pull off the upset. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and can be streamed on platforms like YouTube TV.
The Jaguars have fallen flat on their face out of the gate. Trevor Lawrence hasn't played very well to start the season, and the Jags offense is sputtering as a result. The Bills, meanwhile, are 2-0 behind an MVP-like start from Josh Allen. James Cook led the way against Miami last week with three first-half touchdowns.
Let's get into my Jaguars vs. Bills prediction for Monday night and my NFL picks and predictions for Week 3.
Jaguars vs. Bills Picks
SPREAD
I'm betting the Jaguars (+5.5) against the spread in this Jaguars vs. Bills Monday Night Football matchup.
MONEYLINE
I'm not betting the Monday Night Football moneyline.
TOTAL
The over/under, set at 45.5, is a pass for me.
Jaguars vs. Bills Pick: Jaguars +5.5
Jaguars vs. Bills Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Jaguars vs. Bills Point Spread: Bills -5.5
- Jaguars vs. Bills Total: Over/Under 45.5
- Jaguars vs. Bills Moneyline: Bills -250, Jaguars +200
Jaguars vs. Bills: NFL Monday Night Football Picks
In many ways, these teams are mirror images of one another.
Both feature franchise quarterbacks leading a cast of characters on offense where the quarterback is the star and everyone else is mostly a role player. Both teams have strong, underrated defenses and veteran coaches with a ton of success.
But the Bills version is just a bit better at all those areas. There are some questions about Doug Pederson's leadership and offense, and the young Jaguars defense has played well enough, but the Bills just stopped the Dolphins offense cold. And then there's the quarterback disparity as Trevor Lawrence hasn't quite lived up to all those measurables, while Josh Allen has settled in as "The Greatest Non-Mahomes Quarterback Alive".
Buffalo has the better run game and has leaned into its run identity with Cook. The Bills are also playing at home on extra rest after a Thursday night game.
So, why has the money come in on Jacksonville all week and pushed the line toward the Jags?
Best Bet for Jaguars vs. Bills
This is a great spot for the Jaguars and a great chance to buy low on a team that's 0-2, but could easily be 2-0 after close, competitive losses to Browns and Dolphins teams expected to contend for the playoffs.
The trends all line up for Jacksonville.
- Teams that are 0-2 and playing a team with at least one win are 53-32-2 ATS (62%) since 2010. Those trends get even stronger for teams like the Jaguars, who were favored in their previous game (73% ATS), or against opponents like the Bills, who were underdogs last time out (72% ATS).
- Road underdog 0-2 teams facing a team with at least one win are 8-14 SU since 2018, and though that may not seem great on the surface, it's provided a 30% ROI for moneyline bettors.
- Road underdogs of seven or less have historically been profitable in Week 3 and are 59% ATS over the past two decades — regardless of their record the first two games.
It turns out that two weeks of game data is just enough for bettors and the books alike to get a little too confident in what's been seen, and it's a great spot to buy low on teams everyone's ready to write off.
It's also a great opportunity to sell high on teams folks are a bit too confident in. Buffalo won big in Miami last week as an underdog, but teams like that haven't fared well historically their next time out.
Teams that won by 17 or more points as underdogs of seven or less are just 35% ATS since 2010 in their following game. That trend is even more exaggerated early in the season, when those huge wins feel even more monumental. Those teams off huge wins are just 12-40-1 ATS (23%) in the first five weeks.
Even with the line moving Jacksonville's direction all week, this is still a Jaguars spot at anything longer than +4. Take the best line you can find, and if you like the Jaguars a lot, you have good reason to sprinkle the moneyline and watch for a Monday Night Football upset.
Pick: Jaguars +5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Betting Trends
- 63% of bets and 54% of the money are on the Bills to cover the spread.
- 60% of bets and 75% of the money are on the over.
- 97% of bets and 97% of the money on the moneyline are on the Bills.
How to Watch Jaguars vs. Bills
| Location: | Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. |
| Date: | Monday, Sept. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Jacksonville vs. Buffalo is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET live from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and can be streamed on platforms like YouTube TV.
Jaguars vs. Bills Weather
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