Jaguars vs Bills Odds Week 5 (London)
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
Another week, another NFL game in London. This time, we’ve got Jaguars vs. Bills odds for the AFC clash at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The Bills are clicking on all cylinders and have handled each of their last three opponents with blowout victories, most recently derailing the Dolphins hype train. As tempting as it may be to back the hottest team in the AFC, I'm going to avoid that side because of Doug Pederson’s history of success when installed as an underdog.
However, digging into some advanced metrics has revealed the potential for points, which is key to my Jaguars vs. Bills pick and prediction.
Jaguars vs. Bills
Matchup Analysis
The Jaguars defense ranks a respectable 11th in total defensive DVOA. But when digging a little deeper, there's cause for concern.
Jacksonville's adversaries have included C.J. Stroud, Desmond Ridder and Anthony Richardson (in his first NFL start). Despite a relatively easy schedule, on a yards per play basis, Jacksonville is 22nd in the league and surrendering 5.4 yards per play.
Josh Allen has been red-hot over the past three games and now gets to face a defense allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt (18th). Jacksonville's 37% pass rush win rate is a major reason why the Jags have struggled to limit passing attacks. The Jaguars are one of 11 teams with fewer than 10 sacks this season, and five of their nine sacks fall under the category of the quarterback's fault, according to FantasyPoints data.
The Jaguars have had 58% of all yards against them come after the catch, which is the second most in football. Their inability to get pressure has allowed quarterbacks to deliver the football accurately, which allows receivers the opportunity to create additional yardage.
Jacksonville's defense opts to play zone over 80% of the time in coverage. The Bills' coaching staff knows what the gameplan will be.
Allen has shown more patience recently, which has led to the second-best adjusted completion percentage in football when factoring in throwaways, drops and batted passes. If the Jaguars aren’t able to make Allen uncomfortable in the pocket, the Bills' signal-caller is going to carve them up.
All signs point to another big day for a Bills offense that already leads the league in points scored per drive (3.14).
Bet Jacksonville vs. Buffalo at FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence has had a slow start to 2023, but it’s not entirely his fault.
His pass-catchers have a 7.0% drop percentage, the second highest in the league. Lawrence's accuracy has been there as he's one of only seven quarterbacks with an off-target throw rate below 13% (Allen leads in this metric). Pro Football Focus ranks Lawrence eighth in their quarterback power rating over the first month of the season, and a lot of that has to do with his extremely low 1.74% turnover-worthy throw rate.
This Jags offense has yet to fully take off, but a regression to the mean for Lawrence will facilitate some big statistical days moving forward.
Another factor that will assist in making life on the Jaguars quarterback easier is the ability to create explosive runs. This is becoming a real concern for the Bills defense as they give up rushes over 10 yards on 19.2% of running plays. If the Jaguars can hit a few of these explosive runs, they'll have more scoring opportunities.
The loss of Tre'Davious White will also make life much more difficult for the Bills defense. The Jaguars' passing attack should have plenty of chances to make plays with Dane Jackson and Christian Benford on the outside of Buffalo's defense. Jackson has only played 62 snaps on defense this season and Benford ranks 77th in coverage grade (out of 111 qualifying cornerbacks), according to Pro Football Focus.
Buffalo will also be without Gregory Rousseau, its third-highest rated defender and the 17th-best edge defender in the league, according to PFF.
Jaguars vs. Bills
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Bills putting the clamps on Tua Tagovailoa, combined with Trevor Lawrence's slow start, created an artificially low total for two elite quarterbacks.
Any concerns about Buffalo's offense traveling overseas shouldn’t be bothersome as Allen has played two neutral-site games in his career and those contests finished with 58 and 54 total points.
Let’s ride the hottest offense in football and expect positive regression for Jacksonville.
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