Our betting analysts have made four Jaguars vs. Bills picks & predictions for Monday Night Football, which will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y on ESPN. The Bills (2-0) are favored by 5.5 points over the Jaguars (0-2), with the over/under installed at 45.5 points.
Josh Allen has played like an MVP so far this season for the Bills but barely had to break a sweat in Week 2 against the Dolphins. Allen has 3 passing touchdowns and 2 more rushing, while James Cook has 3 touchdowns and 198 total yards of offense.
Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, is struggling. The Jaguars QB only completing 51% of his passes and has just one passing touchdown. The Jacksonville offense has only scored three touchdowns this season, with Travis Etienne scoring two of those on the ground.
Let's get into our Jaguars vs. Bills bets for Monday Night Football and our NFL picks and predictions to close Week 3.
Jaguars vs. Bills Picks, Predictions
Click on a Jaguars-Bills pick below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 7:30 p.m. | |
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Nick Giffen's Jaguars vs. Bills Pick Against the Spread
By Nick Giffen
The Jaguars are coming off of two one-score losses, including last week against Cleveland when the 21.8-18.6 Expected Score we get from the underlying play-by-play metrics said they should have won.
Meanwhile, Buffalo's blowout of Miami was closer than it looked. The two teams had similar success rates, but Miami couldn't finish drives with points after moving the ball well. When you move the ball that well, you'll tend to finish more of those drives. That means Buffalo was lucky.
This one has had some conflicting signals regarding which direction the line will move. Six points is no longer available and DraftKings is even down to +5. I'll take the 5.5 now since I make this spread closer to four points, which is where the line was when it opened on the lookahead market.
Pick: Jaguars +5.5 (-110)
John LanFranca Bets the Jaguars-Bills Over/Under
The Jacksonville offense has produced the most explosive plays in the NFL this season through two weeks, with 12 such plays of 20 yards or more. Trevor Lawrence is the only quarterback in the league with a 20% deep pass rate, which means he's consistently trying to push the ball down the field. This style isn't surprising given that's how receivers Brian Thomas and Gabriel Davis will thrive.
The Jaguars are also the fourth-best offense on first down this season, averaging 6.7 yards per play. It's a near certainty the Jaguars will benefit from some positive regression on second and third downs, as Lawrence bests only Anthony Richardson in completion percentage at this point in the season for quarterbacks that have played two games.
The Jaguars defense, ranking just 18th in the league in DVOA, has been one of the most aggressive units we have seen in the NFL in recent memory. Jacksonville has played man coverage at the league's highest rate (64%). Josh Allen can undoubtedly take advantage of their aggressive nature, excelling this year when facing man coverage, averaging eight yards per attempt and throwing three touchdowns despite only facing the coverage on 16 dropbacks.
I'm expecting a high-scoring affair on Monday night and am putting my bet on it happening.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)
Matt Trebby's Brian Thomas Player Prop
By Matt Trebby
Thomas has shown some real promise in his first two NFL games. He had 47 yards in Week 1 against the Dolphins and then 94 against the Browns last week. Against Miami, he could have had a 40-yard touchdown if Jalen Ramsey didn’t take him down with defensive pass interference instead of conceding the score.
It’s clear that Thomas has immediately become a big-play threat for this Jacksonville offense, averaging 23.5 yards per catch so far.
Thomas’ receiving yards total at BetMGM is 40.5, and he’s gone over that in both of his NFL games. Sean Koerner, entered Week 3 scorching hot, has Thomas projected for 48.4 receiving yards.
I’m very confident he’ll go over this again in what should be a tightly contested Monday Night Football matchup.
Pick: Brian Thomas Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
