Jalen Hurts Passing + Rushing Yards
| Prop | Over 284.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114; playable to 298.5) |
| Matchup | Commanders vs. Eagles |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
We’re treated to an NFC East clash featuring the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. For my favorite prop, I’m keying in on the Eagles' dual-threat quarterback.
Jalen Hurts has eclipsed this line in five of his eight games this season. He dismantled the Commanders through the air in Week 3, accumulating 340 passing yards to pair with 20 rushing yards.
In the three games in which Hurts stayed under this line, Eagles running backs accumulated 113, 120 and 172 rushing yards. The Commanders boast a terrific run defense, ranking 2nd in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric, while allowing the 10th fewest running back rush yards per game (85.1).
So while Miles Sanders has been terrific, the Eagles are more likely to exploit the Commanders where they struggle — the passing game.
Washington ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA. Hurts is second in the NFL with 8.5 yards per attempt, establishing himself as one of the better throwers this season. We’ve seen Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni lean on the pass in these types of matchups, and I expect that to happen again.
And yes, I’m tacking on Hurts’ rushing yards here. The Commanders generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks at the third highest rate in the league (26.6%, per Pro Football Reference). Hurts scrambles at a high rate when facing pressure (11% of his dropbacks; 8th highest amongst qualified starters).
Tonight reads as a big day for the MVP candidate. I have Hurts’ total yards projected at around 310, and I would play this line up to 298.5 yards.
