We struck gold last night with Justice Hill’s receiving yards prop cashing on the third play of the game. While I’m not expecting the same tonight, I’m once again finding an edge with a running back’s receiving yards prop.
Josh Jacobs enters his first season in Green Bay as the unquestioned lead back. In fact, both of his backups, rookie MarShawn Lloyd (who missed virtually all of training camp) and Emmanuel Wilson are questionable for this game.
Jacobs should not only command the bulk of the running back carries, but targets as well. Last season, Jordan Love targeted running backs at a 16% rate, at an average of 5.5 targets per game.
Jacobs has shown proclivity as a pass catcher, averaging 5.7 yards per target over his five NFL seasons. Now in arguably the best offensive environment of his career, with limited positional competition, I’m expecting him to command 4-5 targets per game.
The Eagles are entering their first season under Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme. Under Fangio’s tutelage last season, the Dolphins were 21st in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA against running backs in the passing game.
From a personnel perspective, Jacobs should have a strong advantage against the Eagles linebacker core. And with the safeties expected to provide help over the top against the dynamic Packers receivers, Jacobs should thrive in one-on-one coverage.
I have the sixth-year pro projected at 21 receiving yards, and would play this line comfortably to over 18.5.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 17.5 Receiving Yards at -125 (Play to 18.5) via DraftKings
