The Chiefs and Bills will face off in the AFC Championship Game at 6:30 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will be live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
The latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds have the Chiefs as -125 moneyline favorites and the Bills as +105 underdogs. The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites on the spread; the game total is 49.5 points.
Let's get into our Chiefs vs. Bills AFC Championship Game predictions, picks and props.
Chiefs vs. Bills Predictions — AFC Championship Game
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Total
- Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-110), Bills +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 49.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -125, Bills +105
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday at 5 p.m. ET.
Chiefs vs. Bills Against the Spread Prediction
By Matt Trebby
Buffalo can beat Kansas City in the regular season, but the playoffs have been an issue. This might be the Bills' best matchup in their recent playoff history against the Chiefs.
The trends surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ playoff career lead me to a simple thought: When Mahomes is an underdog or favorite of three or fewer points, I’m not going to bet against him.
Mahomes is 3-0 both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) against Josh Allen in the playoffs, and he has covered by 6.7 points per game.
Here are the heavyweight trends, though.
1) In freezing temperatures, Mahomes is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home.
2) In those aforementioned situations where Mahomes is an underdog or favorite of three or fewer points, he’s 27-9-1 ATS in his career.
3) Mahomes is 15-2 SU in home or neutral-site games. His only losses came to Tom Brady and Joe Burrow in the 2019 and 2021 AFC Championship Games.
Chiefs vs. Bills Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
This is a very different Chiefs team than the one that's engaged in so many shootouts with the Bills in the past; K.C. is bereft of many of the weapons that made those big scores possible.
Not only do we know that, but the Chiefs do too. Their best shot is to slow the game down, keep Josh Allen off the field and be in a position to win late if the game stays close.
While I like this pick on its own, I especially like it when paired with the Chiefs spread since I make them considerably more likely to cover in a low-scoring game than a high-scoring one.
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
By Charlie Wright
Patrick Mahomes typically ramps up his production on the ground in the playoffs. We saw it in the Divisional Round against Houston, against which he ran a season-high seven times. A pair of kneeldowns helped, but those are in play once again this week. This bet is live until the final whistle.
With the seven carries last week, Mahomes is now averaging 5.1 attempts in 19 career playoff games. He's at 3.9 attempts across 112 regular-season games. Mahomes has 6+ carries in 4 straight playoff games, with his last miss being in a blowout of Miami in last year's Wild Card Round.
Buffalo was stingy against quarterbacks on the ground in the regular season, but they've struggled through 2 games in the playoffs. Bo Nix and Lamar Jackson combined for 82 yards on 10 carries. Buffalo played zone 73% of the time during the regular season. That number has ticked down to 61% in the playoffs. The Bills were at 66% the first time these teams played back in Week 11. More man coverage would mean more opportunities to scramble for Mahomes.
Josh Allen Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
By Brit Devine
Going to be looking at a few Bills passing props this week, starting with Josh Allen.
First, the weather for this game looks like it will be in the mid-30s with little wind and sun. That's good news for the passing games here.
The Bills seem to let Allen put these games in his hands against the Chiefs. He has at least 40 pass attempts in each of his past three games against Kansas City dating back to last season, including a season-high 40 attempts in the meeting during the regular season against the Chiefs. In the 2023 regular season, Allen attempted 42 passes and last year in the playoffs it was 39.
Allen's low volume of dropbacks in the Ravens game is keeping this number too low. Allen only attempted 22 passes while the Bills had 36 rush attempts.
Chiefs vs. Bills Anytime Touchdown Props — Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt Anytime TD Scorer (+190)
By Grant Neiffer
While this backfield continues to be a two-headed monster between Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, Hunt has been the guy getting more work in the red zone recently.
Hunt has three touchdowns in the last three games compared to Pacheco's one touchdown on the season. The snap share has leaned more in Hunt's favor by a heavy margin over the last three games, and Hunt has six red-zone opportunities to Pacheco's two in the last three games.
I have the true odds around +165, making this a good bet.
