The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) and Buffalo Bills (8-2) are set for another marquee clash in NFL Week 11. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+, YouTube TV or other similar streaming services.
The Bills are favored by 2 points over the Chiefs (Bills -2) with the game total set at 46. The Bills are -130 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Chiefs are +110 underdogs.
The Chiefs won 16-14 over the Broncos last week thanks to a blocked field goal as time expired. Patrick Mahomes has underwhelmed this season with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions in nine games, but Kansas City is the NFL’s last undefeated team nonetheless. The Bills won 30-20 last week over the Colts. Buffalo is in control of the AFC East after winning five straight games.
Let's get into my Bills vs Chiefs predictions and NFL picks.
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Bills -2
- Chiefs vs. Bills over/under: 46 points scored
- Chiefs vs. Bills moneyline: Bills -130, Chiefs +110
- Chiefs vs. Bills best bet: Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
MyChiefs vs. Bills best bet is on Kansas City. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
This is a prime spot to bet on Patrick Mahomes, who has thrived as an underdog in his career. While the Bills will be a tough test for Kansas City, history says you should take points when Mahomes is getting them.
Moneyline
I'll take the points with Mahomes and not bet on the Chiefs moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet on the over/under for this game. Kansas City is likely to bounce back.
My Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
Chiefs vs. Bills NFL Week 11 Preview
Yes, the Chiefs are fortunate to still be undefeated. Yes, they’re first in our NFL Luck Rankings.
There’s this idea floating around, though, that they’re like the 2022 Steelers or 2023 Eagles and not actually a good football team. The numbers tell a different story, though.
The Chiefs are third in total DVOA, 10th on offense and fourth on defense. There are four teams in the NFL that rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense (Lions, Chiefs, 49ers and Bills), and they’re clear Super Bowl contenders.
Should Kansas City have lost last week to the Broncos? Yeah, probably. That’s a reasonable assumption.
Could they have lost to the Ravens and Bengals to start the season? Sure. That doesn’t take away from the fact that the two-time-defending champs are still among the NFL’s elite.
We’ve also heard in the past about how the Chiefs start slowly and need to pick it up eventually after a “slow” start to the season. Well, they’ve won back-to-back Super Bowls.
If you were looking for a chance to bet on the Chiefs this season, this is probably it. The trends say this is an ideal spot to bet Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes is 11-3 straight-up (SU) in his career as an underdog, and he’s 12-1-1 against the spread (ATS) when getting points. That is the best SU record as an underdog in the Super Bowl era for a quarterback with at least 10 starts.
As a favorite of three or fewer points, or an underdog, Mahomes is 25-10 SU and 26-8-1 ATS. The man simply doesn’t get blown out — and most of the time, he wins.
Playing away from Arrowhead hasn’t been a problem for Mahomes either. He’s 48-12 SU in his career on the road or at a neutral site, and he’s 19-5 as a favorite of three or fewer points or an underdog.
There are some trends that indicate this is a spot to back Josh Allen, too. He’s 7-3 SU and ATS as a favorite of three or fewer, or as an underdog, and is covering by 9.6 points per game. Two of those losses, though, were against Mahomes.
These teams are evenly matched, but the Chiefs are undefeated while the Bills have lost to the two best teams they’ve played this season in the Ravens and Texans.
This is a time to avoid overthinking things and simply bet on Mahomes.
My Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
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