The Miami Dolphins (2-5) and Buffalo Bills (6-2) will begin the Sunday slate of NFL Week 9 at 1 p.m. ET from Higmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will be live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+, YouTube TV and other services. The Bills are favored by 6 points over the Dolphins (Bills -6) with the over/under set at 49.5 points. The Bills are -275 on the moneyline to win and Miami is +225 to pull off the upset.
The Bills won 31-10 last week over the Seahawks. Josh Allen threw his first interception of the season but remains in MVP-like form, having led the Bills to 3 straight wins and a strong start to the season. The Dolphins lost 28-27 last week at home to the Cardinals and have now lost 5 of their last 6 games. However, the Dolphins are a completely different team with Tua Tagovailoa under center.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs. Bills prediction and my NFL picks for Week 9.
Dolphins vs. Bills Expert Picks
Spread
I'm passing on the spread for this game and am focused on a player prop that is one of my favorite bets of the season.
Moneyline
Buffalo has won 12 of its last 13 games against the Dolphins, including a blowout win in Miami earlier this season. That said, I'm not betting the moneyline on a six-point favorite.
Over/Under
While this could be a very high-scoring game, I'm passing on the over/under.
Player Prop
The Bills play a very conservative style of defense that takes away big plays. The position that has thrived against them this season in the passing game, though, is running back.
As I lay out below, De'Von Achane is poised for a potentially huge game this week.
My pick: De'Von Achane Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 49.5 -110 / -110 | +225 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 49.5 -110 / -110 | -275 |
- Dolphins vs. Bills Spread: Bills -6
- Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under: 49.5 points
- Dolphins vs. Bills Moneyline: Bills -275, Dolphins +225
- Dolphins vs. Bills Best Bet: De'Von Achane Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
- 71% of bets and 84% of the money are on the Bills to cover the spread.
- 78% of bets and 94% of the money are on the over.
- 92% of bets and 93% of the money on the moneyline are on the Bills.
My Bills vs. Dolphins pick is a De'Von Achane player prop. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs. Bills NFL Week 9
I teased this on our Sunday night recap episode of “The Action Network Podcast” last week. De’Von Achane is a totally different player with Tua Tagovailoa. With the Dolphins’ QB1 under center, the field opens up and makes Achane a much more dangerous player.
This week, Miami might have to lean on Achane more than usual. The Bills tend to play a lot of two-high-safety coverage, which helps prevent explosive plays from the opposition. That will be a key focus this week against the Dolphins given their playmakers. Buffalo’s hope will be that it forces Miami to create longer, extended drives, which it struggles to do.
If the Dolphins can’t get their shots down the field, Achane will be a factor in the passing game as other running backs have against Buffalo this season. Because of the coverage that the Bills tend to play, opposing running backs have 51 receptions for 434 receiving yards against them this season, both of which are the most allowed in the NFL.
Achane had six catches for 50 yards last week, and he had seven for 76 and seven for 69 (and a touchdown) in the Dolphins’ first two games of the season, which Tagovailoa played. In total, he has caught 20 of 22 targets in the three full games that Tagovailoa has played this season.
This might be the Dolphins’ best chance of creating explosive plays against Buffalo. It hasn’t been a great matchup for Miami, which has lost 12 of its last 13 games to the Bills.
I’m starting with over 32.5 receiving yards but am going from there. I’d recommend Achane to get 50+ receiving yards at +230 over at BetMGM.
I’d also recommend over 3.5 receptions. The Bills have allowed more than three receptions to nine running backs this season and at least six targets to an RB six times this season. Breece Hall went for five receptions for 56 yards, Justice Hill had six for 78, and even Dare Ogunbowale had six for 57.
This is one of my favorite plays of the season, and I’d recommend looking at ladders for Achane’s receiving yards.
Pick: De'Von Achane Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Highmark Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Nov. 3 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS / Paramount+ and YouTube TV |
Bills vs. Dolphins is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET start time, live from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, on Sunday, Nov. 3. The game is broadcasted live by CBS and is streaming on Paramount+ and YouTube TV.
NFL Weather
