The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) will visit the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) on Monday Night Football to close out NFL Week 9 on November 4. The game is set to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.
Read below for PropBetGuy's Baker Mayfield player prop for Buccaneers vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
For our best bets and expert picks for tonight's game, head over to our full guide for Chiefs-Bucs.
PropBetGuy's Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Player Prop
- Baker Mayfield Longest Completion: Under 35.5 Yards (-126, Caesars)
In our Monday Night matchup for Week 9, we have the Buccaneers traveling north to Kansas City to face the undefeated Chiefs. For this game, I’m keying in on Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield staying under his longest completion line of 35.5 yards.
Mayfield has remained under this line in six of his eight games this season, with only four of his 202 completions traveling at least 36 yards. Three of those were in one game against the Saints, and his two longest completions this season were both to Chris Godwin.
Godwin and Mike Evans will both be sidelined for this game, leaving Mayfield with the bottom end of the Bucs’ wide receiver depth. Even rookie Jalen MacMillan, who is tied for the Bucs lead with seven targets at least 20 yards downfield, is questionable to suit up tonight with a hamstring injury.
Overall, Mayfield has really leaned into his check-downs this season, something I see continuing without his main targets on the outside. At a 6.8 average depth of target, Mayfield ranks 36th out of 40 quarterbacks in passing depth.
And against two-high safety looks, a scheme that the Chiefs employ at the league’s second highest rate, Mayfield’s aDOT drops to 5.1 yards, with a 3.8% deep pass percentage. Both of those metrics have him in the bottom four of qualified quarterbacks (all via Fantasy Points Data).
Tack on some very questionable weather being called for in Kansas City tonight, with heavy rain expected. Even in a matchup where Mayfield will likely be throwing, I have his longest completion projected closer to 32 yards.
Pick: Baker Mayfield Longest Completion: Under 35.5 Yards (-126)
