Bills vs Patriots Prediction & Pick: NFL Week 17
Bills vs Patriots odds have the Bills as 14-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 40 total points for this NFL Week 17 AFC East clash. My Bills vs Patriots prediction and pick for NFL Week 17 for this game isn't a pretty one, but I like the underdog catching two touchdowns.
The Bills host the Patriots on Sunday in Orchard Park as they aim to get revenge for a bad loss to the Patriots in Foxboro in October. Buffalo survived a real scare last week in Los Angeles against Easton Stick and the Chargers, needing the final possession to escape with a 24-22 win.
Shaky win aside, the Bills have officially become the "team no one wants to play in January," which is a textbook sign that we're at the peak of the market on them, and the market is probably overvaluing Buffalo for the remainder of the season. The Bills are two wins away (vs. New England, at Miami) from finishing the season with five straight wins. They could climb as high as the No. 2 seed in the AFC with two wins and a Miami loss to Baltimore.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction & Pick
Pick: Patriots +14 (Play to +13) |
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| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | -950 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | +625 |
Bills vs Patriots Preview
The Patriots defense is elite against the run, ranking first by EPA per rush allowed. The Bills have leaned heavily on the run game in the last month to make up for the fact that the pass offense is lacking versatility. It’s been Stefon Diggs or bust for Buffalo, and Diggs has been held below 50 yards in five of the last six games. The only game he went over was against Philadelphia and its poor secondary.
Whether Diggs isn’t healthy, isn’t happy or isn’t connected with Josh Allen, the pass offense around him is extremely fragile and can be slowed down if he isn't effective. Allen has used his legs a ton to extend drives and targeted James Cook out of the backfield to make up for the receivers' lack of production. It will be hard to make that work consistently against a quietly elite Patriots defense that ranks top 10 in yards per drive allowed.
Bills vs Patriots Picks | FanDuel
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There are some injury questions to be answered for New England between Friday's final injury report and Sunday's kickoff. They had nine players listed as questionable who were limited in practice, most notably Jabrill Peppers, Kyle Dugger, Myles Bryant, Jonathan Jones and Hunter Henry.
That's the entire starting secondary for the Patriots, and I'm only interested in backing New England if most of those four are able to go. Bill Belichick is sure to use bracket coverage on Diggs and force literally any other receiver to beat him, but the Patriots won't be able to contain Allen without most of the starters on the back end of their defense.
Given how little the Bills get from the non-Diggs wideouts, Buffalo's offense could struggle to get margin.
New England played last week with a makeshift offensive line and very limited offensive weaponry. The one key for Bailey Zappe is that while he's not particularly good at anything, he's not afraid to throw the ball down the field. A healthy Demario Douglas plus Henry gives them the ability to use the middle of the field and hit an explosive play or two to stay competitive.
It's not easy to show where New England has any real advantages, but the Patriots have the better defensive unit and they're catching two touchdowns in a divisional game.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction & Pick
The betting market views Buffalo as the third-best team in the NFL right now, behind only San Francisco and Baltimore. Even though the situational spot isn't great for New England with back-to-back road games, the Patriots should be up to play spoiler once again.
Buffalo remains unreliable to get margin, and much like last week, I'm fading them as a huge favorite against a vastly inferior opponent. Hold your nose and bet the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots +14 (Play to +13) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
