NFL Best Bets: Props, Picks for Saturday (Week 16)
Week 16 features a Saturday doubleheader, and we have NFL best bets for the Bills vs Chargers nightcap. Our NFL betting staff is all over the player props market, with picks for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and James Cook.
Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | NFL Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Steelers vs. Bengals
By Nick Giffen
Freiermuth's longest odds for an Anytime TD over the last two years was +500. Last year, he was no longer than +330, so we're getting into territory where he's nearly value just based off historical odds.
That said, this is also a great matchup against the Bengals, who are 31st in defensive DVOA against tight ends while allowing the fourth-most target volume. As a result, the Bengals have allowed the most yards per game to tight ends.
I'm not downgrading the Steelers offense much with Mason Rudolph, who's adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) is 5.1 compared to 5.0 for Kenny Pickett and 4.9 for Mitch Trubisky (during his time as a Steeler).
This game is also a luck over, so I expect more scoring than the current total suggests, adding more fuel to Freiermuth’s fire.
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Bills vs. Chargers
By Matt Trebby
Over the next month or so, you’ll hear a lot about how Josh Allen uses his legs a lot in big games, which is true. Especially in the playoffs, the Bills QB likes to keep the ball and make plays himself more than in the regular season.
This isn’t one of those big games. This is a matchup against what might be the worst team in the NFL right now.
The Chargers are without their two most-important offensive players in QB Justin Herbert and WR Keenan Allen, while RB Austin Ekeler is having the worst season of his career. Also, Los Angeles was just embarrassed in Week 15 and fired its coach and general manager immediately after.
Buffalo, meanwhile, is hot. This game should not be close. If it isn’t, there’s a clear pick on Allen’s rush attempts prop.
The Bills have won five games this season by double digits. Allen has stayed under 6.5 rush attempts in four of them. The one exception was last week against the Cowboys, although the Bills’ offensive game plan was very different for that game. James Cook ran wild and Allen only attempted 15 passes.
Sean Koerner is projecting Allen for 6.1 rush attempts on the dot for this one, and it was available at plus money on Friday. I’d play this anywhere below -120.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (+104)
Bills vs. Chargers
James Cook has shown some good things in his first 30 games as a pro. He’s been a receiving threat since Day 1 and he’s made strides in pass protection. That combination makes him a potential three-down back, which is a rarity in the modern NFL.
Cook’s ceiling was fairly defined by former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. In 2023, with Dorsey as his play-caller, Cook averaged 83.7 yards from scrimmage (61.5 rushing/22.2 receiving). Digging deeper, Cook averaged 12 carries and 2.8 targets per game.
Once Joe Brady took over Dorsey, everything changed for Cook. His carries have increased from 12 to 17 per game. His targets have shot up as well, jumping from sub three to a hair below five per game.
He’s the Bills’ workhorse and that isn’t likely to change in this game for two reasons. First, the Chargers have a bottom-five defense – they give up the second-most passing yards to running backs (48.5) and are middle of the road against the run. And the second reason is what a heavy workload for Cook means for Josh Allen.
By featuring Cook prominently in the running and passing game, Brady is limiting potential turnover-worthy throws by Allen. Allen’s yards per attempt have dipped with more checkdown throws, many of them heading Cook’s way — and it’s working.
The Bills are 3-1 straight up with Brady at the controls and I don’t see him flipping the script against a sinking Chargers squad. With the Bills installed as a massive favorite, game flow could dictate another 20-plus carries for Cook as well.
All signs point to another big game from Cook and I would play this all the way up to 106.5 yards.
Pick: James Cook Over 96.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
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Bills vs. Chargers
The Bills barely had to throw the ball in their victory last week but Diggs still earned a 33% target share on 31 snaps.
Josh Allen and the Bills’ passing attack have had to face the Cowboys, Chiefs, Broncos and Jets in four of their last five games. Those are three of the best eight pass defenses (according to DVOA) and the Broncos successfully tasked Pat Surtain with slowing down Diggs. Things will get much easier for the Allen and Diggs duo on Saturday night.
The Chargers simply don’t have the personnel on the back end to stop Diggs. They surrender 7.7 yards per pass attempt (29th), which matches their 29th overall DVOA ranking at defending opposing WR1s.
Los Angeles has allowed 87 yards per game to the top target of the opposing team – just last week, it was carved up by Davante Adams for over 100 yards despite the game being a blowout.
Consider Diggs a great candidate for the squeaky wheel treatment as he gets back to his ways of producing similarly to his 92.6 yards per game average he had during the first nine weeks of the season.
I'd play Diggs over 68.5 up to 73.5.
I don't have a ton of hope that this game stays close, but I still expect a big game out of Diggs.
He's been underwhelming over the last five weeks, but he's had some tough matchups against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Jets and Broncos. The volume has been solid all season and the matchup is fantastic with the Chargers, who rank 27th in yards allowed per attempt, 28th in pass DVOA and 30th in passing yards allowed per game.
I expect close to 10 targets for Diggs in a plus matchup. I would hit this line all the way up to 73.5.
