NFL Divisional Round Odds, Picks: Bets for Every NFL Playoff Game

Here's everything you need to know about NFL Divisional Round odds, picks and bets for every game and every team as we preview the first weekend of the 2024 NFL playoffs.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team, capped by my full betting card at the bottom of this article.

NFL Divisional Round Odds, Picks: Bets for Every NFL Playoff Game

Game	Road Pick	Home Pick
Texans vs Ravens
Packers vs 49ers
Buccaneers vs Lions
Chiefs vs Bills

Get additional NFL coverage, including Divisional Round picks and previews, Super Bowl odds, head coaching news and much more.

Buccaneers vs Lions Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 21

3:00pm ET

Buccaneers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+6.5 -110	49.5 -114o / -106u	+250

Lions Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-6.5 -110	49.5 -114o / -106u	-310

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• These teams played in Detroit back in Week 6. The Lions won a 20-6 snoozer, and the key takeaway may have been the huge run-pass splits. The teams combined for just 38 rushes for 86 yards, and they called only 35 runs to 90 pass plays. Both teams abandoned the run, and Detroit largely won because Jared Goff threw for 353 yards while Baker Mayfield had a poor game.
• This is the one game of the weekend with no weather impact since Detroit plays indoors. Just don't ask Todd Bowles about that.
• Divisional Round favorites with at least a 75% regular-season win rate are just 17-32 ATS (35%), and home favorites this round are 32-44-1 ATS (42%), both over the past two decades. Notably, though, this is the first 3-seed ever to play at home this round.
• Season-long trends may not help much here. The Lions are now 13-5 ATS, best in the NFL, but the Bucs are right behind at 12-6 ATS. Lions overs went 11-6 but Bucs unders went 11-6.

• Both run defenses are outstanding. The Bucs led the league in run defense DVOA over the final six weeks of the season with Vita Vea stuffing up the middle, while the Lions actually rank first for the full season and are even better with Alim McNeill back. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in Run Block Win Rate, so the Bucs in particular should not be able to run. Expect a very pass-heavy game.
• A pass-heavy game could make this very unpredictable since we have no idea what to expect from Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff on this stage. The Lions' defense ranks top five in variance on the season, and the Bucs are top five as a team in variance. Both pass defenses are weak spots and beatable against top receivers. You want passing overs and running unders in this game, and if you like an outlier outcome, the unpredictability factor here could make anything possible.
• Don't be surprised if things start out a bit slower. Tampa Bay's offense is much worse with its defense much better in the first half, and Detroit's defense is better in the first half, too. If you like an under, you may want to play just the first half, or consider just the second half for an over.

If it's not clear yet above, I'm expecting a very pass-heavy game light on running, especially from the Bucs. Tampa Bay is one of the league's rushing teams, up against the best run defense by DVOA, and I'm expecting Ben Johnson and especially Dave Canales to move away from the run like they did in the Week 6 matchup when we saw 90 pass plays to just 35 runs.

Rachaad White ran only seven times for 26 yards in that one, both his lowest numbers of the season. He's taken on a bigger role for the Bucs late in the season but still sees pretty high variance from game to game, in part because he's averaging just 3.6 YPC behind the league's worst Run Block Win Rate line.

Look at White's massive rushing splits in wins and losses. He's had 17 or more carries 10 times, but nine of those were in Bucs wins, six by double digits. That's not a likely outcome here on the road as a TD underdog. But White has 15 carries or fewer in eight games, and seven of those were losses. He averages only 12.3 carries for 48 yards in a loss, and he's rushed for 42 yards or fewer eight times already.

I just don't see White finding much traction on the ground here. This line is way too high. I'd price it closer to 13.5 and still like the under, so I'll take a rare de-escalator here. Grab under 16.5 rush attempts if you can, but you can also play under 15.5 for even odds or go under 13.5 at +175 via ESPN Bet. If you only have yards available, alt unders like under 41.5 at +210 and under 30.5 at +500 (DraftKings) both look sharp.

If you're looking for a more positive Bucs play, Mike Evans is priced too long at +140 for an anytime TD at Caesars. He's scored in 11-of-18 games (61%) and the Lions have allowed 22 WR receiving TDs, third-most in the NFL.

Again, we want rushing unders and passing overs here. Detroit may not be quite as stark, since the Lions have two good backs and the far better rushing attack and may also be playing with a lead. Still, it's hard not to like Amon-Ra St. Brown to have another big game.

St. Brown has caught 90 yards in 11-of-17 games already this season, hitting this over 65% of the time. That includes a monster line against the Bucs, with 12 catches for 124 yards and a score on 15 targets. These pass defenses allowed the third and fourth-most yards to receivers this season, and the Bucs have allowed 10 WRs already to hit 100 yards, plus three more at 90+ that would hit this prop.

Yards are always a bit less predictable with ARSB so I typically prefer receptions, but at 7.5 receptions that's a tough line that offers little value. I don't mind adding 6+ catches to a parlay boost — it's -350 but he's done it in all but three games — otherwise, I'd rather sprinkle 10+ catches at +270 (bet365) or even 12+ catches if your book offers it, since he's done that three times, with one of those against the Bucs.

My strongest read of the weekend is on the pass-run splits I'm expecting in this game. I'm expecting a heavy pass script from both sides, but especially from the Bucs. That means this White rushing attempts under is my favorite prop and the best way to play that angle, and I like the de-escalator angles too if your books allow it. Passing overs makes sense too, so I'll play the St. Brown angle as well.

I do think this game could be unpredictable. A lot of the usual trends offset each direction, and a pass-heavy game would mean relying on Mayfield and Goff variance to determine a winner. I honestly don't know which of those QBs has a big game. I'm not playing a side, but if I did it would be Bucs +260 on the moneyline. That's just too long a number for how even these sides have looked late in the season and how unpredictable the QB play could make an outcome.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Chiefs vs Bills Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 21

6:30pm ET

CBS

Chiefs Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+2.5 +100	45.5 -115o / -105u	+128

Bills Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-2.5 -122	45.5 -115o / -105u	-152

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Chiefs have a significant rest advantage. Remember, Buffalo had to delay its game until Monday afternoon, giving Kansas City two days extra to rest. The Chiefs also rested Week 18 while the Bills played that Sunday night game in Miami, and Buffalo has effectively been playing playoff games for six weeks. That attrition could matter in a grueling game.
• Kansas City will also have a big health advantage. The Chiefs bring no notable injuries, while the Bills' injury report is long and significant. The Bills have already ruled out WR Gabriel Davis, CB Christian Benford, S Taylor Rapp and LB Baylon Spector. They're also listing five key players as questionable: CBs Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson, LBs Tyrel Dodson and Terrel Bernard and P Sam Martin. Those five are game-time decisions, and even if they start, they may not be healthy enough to finish. Notice the cluster injuries at linebacker and corner — and don't forget, Buffalo is already missing LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. Buffalo's defense ranked near the bottom of the league midseason when the injuries piled up, nearly costing Buffalo its season. Is it happening again?
• Weather could be a factor, with Buffalo temperatures in the low 20s and 10+ MPH winds expected. There's a low chance of snow during the game but the Bills have already requested shoveling help to clear the field, and remember, they just played on that frozen field on Monday. Believe it or not, this will be the first road playoff game of Patrick Mahomes' career!
• When Mahomes is an underdog or favored by three or fewer, he's 15-6-1 ATS in the regular season (71%) and 5-2 ATS in the playoffs (71%). He's 8-1-1 ATS (89%) as an underdog, and Andy Reid is 8-3 ATS (73%) as a dog over the past two decades. The Bills were 7-10 ATS in the regular season, worst of any playoff team. Advantage, Chiefs?

• Buffalo's defense ranked near the bottom of the league the middle part of the season but rebounded to fourth in DVOA the past six weeks, including third against the pass. The Chiefs' defense looked great against the Dolphins in the cold, but Kansas City actually ranked bottom 10 defensively by DVOA over its final six games before that one, and the Chiefs rank 27th against the run for the full season and 31st in Run Stop Win Rate. Kansas City's defense has also been around league average on the road, way worse than its No. 5 DVOA ranking at home. Are we positive the Chiefs' defense is elite? I'm not.
• With both pass defenses great — if Buffalo's is healthy enough — this could come down to the run game. Both teams have added a power rushing attack this year with Isaiah Pacheco and James Cook, but Buffalo's improved run game has been especially notable late in the season under Brady. Allen and Mahomes are both great, but Allen's power running ability could be a big advantage.
• These teams played just over a month ago in Kansas City, and the Bills won 20-17. Buffalo led 14-0 early, then needed a late field goal drive to break a tie before surviving that infamous Kadarius Toney neutral zone penalty that wiped away a spectacular Travis Kelce play for what looked like the winning TD. James Cook had a big game with 141 combined yards and a score, but it was a low-scoring affair.
• Even including that one, Mahomes vs. Allen has averaged almost 54 PPG in six meetings. The series is split 3-3 despite all but one game coming in Kansas City, though Mahomes is 2-0 when it counts in the playoffs. The road team is 4-0 in the regular season but 0-2 in the playoffs.
• The Chiefs could have a significant special teams advantage. Harrison Butker is nails, especially in bad weather, while Tyler Bass was shaky for Buffalo last week and P Sam Martin is hurt.

We're used to fireworks when Mahomes and Allen play, but that really hasn't been Kansas City football this season. Chiefs games average just 38.8 PPG this season and have only topped 46 three times all season, none since November. Chiefs unders are 13-5 now, best of any team, and Kansas City second-half unders are a wild 16-2.

Winter weather favors the run game, and so do the matchups here with both pass defenses so good and both run defenses vulnerable. More running means long drives chewing up the clock and keeping the other QB on the sidelines, and that means less scoring. Remember, we only got 37 points between these teams in December. Bills unders are 11-7 themselves, and games with 10+ MPH winds are 64% to the under over the past three seasons.

These are different teams right now than what we've seen, and I'm expecting this battle to take place mostly on the ground. But I think I'll avoid that second-half under, despite the trend. Both teams have scored in all six meetings between Mahomes and Allen, averaging 14.5 PPG in the fourth quarter. In fact, I like both teams to score in the fourth quarter at -160 over at bet365.

This thing will be low-scoring and close, and you just know Allen or Mahomes will have the ball late with a chance to win. And this year, the defenses will be ready.

I really wanted to get there on betting the Bills, but it's right at the key number and the injuries and rest disadvantage are really scary.

If the Bills do win, you better believe Allen will be the reason. He always shows up for these Mahomes battles, and he unleashes his running in the biggest moments too — see also that spectacular TD run against the Steelers.

Allen has become Buffalo's goal-line back. The Bills have their own Tush Push sneak now, and Allen has repeatedly plowed over defenders to find the end zone. He's run for a score in 13 of Buffalo's 18 games (72%), and nine of those scores came over the final seven games, including one against the Chiefs last time and one against the Steelers on Monday.

The Bills save Allen's legs for the biggest moments, and it doesn't get any bigger than this. Allen scored twice on the ground in three of the last six games, so there's value on 2+ TDs at +600 too.

I really do like the Bills here. It feels like the new-look Bills are built to win this with a dominant power rushing attack and a defense that rebounded and is good enough to hang with this tepid Mahomes offense. This feels like now or never for Buffalo.

But there's a real chance the Bills lost this game against Pittsburgh, when that blocked field goal got the Steelers back into the game and forced Buffalo to push all the way, adding some key injuries on the way. All those little edges — rest, health, special teams and coaching — tilt slightly Kansas City's way. That plus the Mahomes mystique is enough to get me to stay away from a side and enjoy.

But I can't have nothing on the biggest game of the year. I think this particular Mahomes vs. Allen battle is waged on the ground, and that means advantage Allen. Books have mis-priced his anytime TD odds all year, so I'll play one more time.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

• Nico Collins over 77.5 receiving yards & escalators
• Isaiah Likely over 34.5 receiving yards & escalators
• Packers +9.5
• Green Bay futures escalator: Packers ML +360 | To win NFC +1000 | To win Super Bowl +3000
• Rachaad White under 16.5 rushing attempts & de-escalators
• Amon-Ra St. Brown over 89.5 receiving yards
• Josh Allen Anytime TD +100

Completed Games from Earlier

Texans vs Ravens Odds, Picks

Saturday, Jan 20

4:30pm ET

ESPN

Texans Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+9.5 -110	43.5 -110o / -110u	+330

Ravens Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-9.5 -110	43.5 -110o / -110u	-420

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

What you need to know:

• It's Baltimore in January. We're expecting temperatures in the 20s with sustained winds in the high teens and gusting much higher at times. It looks like we may get snow and ice leading up to the game too, which could also have an impact. Games with 10+ MPH winds are 64% to the under over the last three regular seasons. Both teams rank high in variance, and ugly weather could mean further variance. That often favors a big underdog, though it could help Baltimore's strong run game too.
• It's a relatively clean bill of health, with two big Ravens exceptions. Houston's entire defensive line remains limited in practice but is expected to play. Baltimore will be without star corner Marlon Humphrey, who also missed the Week 1 matchup, and Mark Andrews also looks pretty unlikely to return despite practicing this week.
• These teams met all the way back in Week 1. Both Andrews and Humphrey were out, and that was the debut for C.J. Stroud and this green Houston coaching staff as well as for Todd Monken's Baltimore offense. The Texans played the Ravens surprisingly well considering their youth and a flurry of late injuries on the offensive line, and the game was 7-6 at the half and quite even statistically. Both quarterbacks were bad, taking nine sacks combined. Neither offense did much, but Houston's was worse in a rookie QB debut and Baltimore's defense won the day as it has most of the season.

• The Ravens went 14-3 ATS in the first half this season, and Lamar Jackson is 67% ATS in first halves for his career. The Texans' offense ranks 21st by DVOA in the first quarter, average in the middle two quarters and seventh in the final quarter. That could set up for an early Baltimore lead with Houston pushing for a back door, especially if Bobby Slowik's offense comes out run-heavy like usual, but beware — Jackson is just 1-3 ATS in playoff first halves and it's been a long layoff for the Ravens so rust could be in play. A big early Ravens lead could also set up for another late Baltimore collapse if Stroud can keep the Texans close and keep his magic going late.
• Houston's biggest relative strength is its run defense, which ranked second by DVOA over the final six weeks, though it was gashed by Indianapolis in that important Week 18 battle. Run defense is Baltimore's biggest relative weakness, around league average down the stretch, but Houston has struggled to run the ball effectively.
• For all their defensive success, the Ravens haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of quarterbacks this season. Joe Burrow was injured in both matchups, and Justin Herbert may have been too. Baltimore demolished Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa late, but you know about the system questions for both. Matt Stafford was probably the toughest test all season, and he dropped 31 on the Ravens and pushed the game to overtime. Houston's passing attack has ranked top five by DVOA outside of the three Stroud injury games, so this could be a real test, especially with Humphrey out.

I really want to ride with Texans Island and bet the cover here but I can't quite get there — I explain why below — so instead I'm pivoting to Houston's star receiver. Nico Collins has been a revelation for this team, and at this point with Tank Dell and Noah Brown out, he's about the only capable Texans receiver left.

Baltimore has actually been relatively average against opposing WR1s, just 12th by DVOA on the season, and Humphrey is a big miss for Baltimore. Check out some of the lines put up by opponent WRs against the Ravens with Humphrey out this year: Keenan Allen 14/106, Michael Pittman 9/77, Tee Higgins 8/89 and two TDs, and — hey! — Nico Collins 6/80 on 11 targets.

Since Dell got hurt early against Denver, Collins and Stroud have played five healthy games together. Here are the lines Collins has put up in those games:

• 9 catches, 191 yards, 1 TD
• 4 catches, 18 yards, 1 TD
• 7 catches, 80 yards
• 9 catches, 195 yards, 1 TD
• 6 catches, 96 yards, 1 TD last week

That's an average of seven catches for 116 yards with a touchdown in four of the five — basically the same production Tyreek Hill put up in his possible OPOY campaign. Collins is absolutely shredding opponents as Houston's only option. It won't be easy against Baltimore, but Stroud will find a way to get his guy the ball.

Take the over 77.5 yards. Collins has at least 80 receiving yards in over half his games, nine of 16, including four of those five without Dell. You can also play the Nico Anytime TD at +160 via DraftKings. Ready for a little escalator action? You can play six catches, 75 yards, and a score at +350 via bet365, or skip the TD and just go 8/100 at +475. And you know we have to sprinkle a long shot line considering the two monster games of late: 9/125/1 is +1200 via bet365, and he's hit that in two of the past four with Dell out.

Houston has no real shot to compete without a big Collins day. Giddy up.

From the moment I dug into this matchup, I knew I wanted Ravens tight end overs. The Texans allowed 107 receptions to opposing tight ends in the regular season – more than any other team – and they allowed the fifth-most yards. And what happened in the first playoff game? Cleveland's top two receivers were David Njoku with 7/93 and Harrison Bryant with 4/65, both tight ends combining for 158 yards on 11 catches.

The question was which Baltimore tight end it would be, with Mark Andrews practicing in an attempt to return. But with Andrews likely out, Isaiah Likely is the guy. He's playing around 75% of the snaps since Andrews went out and compiled 19 catches for 291 yards and four scores, not counting Week 18. That's 3.8 receptions for 58.2 yards a game, with at least 40 yards in all five games.

Likely has five TDs in his last five games, which probably makes his Anytime TD odds of +200 (FanDuel) viable, but I love the receiving yards since Likely has 40, 83, 70, 56 and 42 in those five games. He's a big athlete who can bust a long one on any catch, so think about an escalator too. He's +194 to hit 50 yards and +450 to hit 70 (FanDuel), and he's done that in three and two of the past five games so those odds are in our favor. Let's ride that escalator.

I really wanted to sell myself on a side angle here but find myself too conflicted, so I'll go with props. Houston has very little shot of competing without a big game from its only real WR target, and Collins can have a big game in garbage-time cleanup if necessary too. I'll play the traditional yards over and then sprinkle 8/100 at +475 and then 9/125 and a TD at +1200 as escalators.

I love this Likely line too and would probably make his line closer to 45, so I'll smash the over 34.5 and play a good portion of the bet on +194 for 50, with just a small sprinkle on +450 for 70+ yards.

A whole barrage of Divisional Round trends — basically all the same ones that love the Packers below — back a Texans cover here, and you know I've been on Texans Island all season. But I worry about the weather, about Ravens tight ends and about a fast Baltimore start early, especially if Slowik's offense starts conservatively as usual. Jackson is 6-17 ATS as a home favorite of 3-to-10 points (26%) and Houston was 7-3 ATS as an underdog this year.

I lean Texans +9.5 and even think there's a world where Houston wins this, but there are too many paths to a comfortable Baltimore start and an even heftier line so it's hard for me to see enough value betting Houston right now. I won't stop you, but I may wait for Texans +10 or look to bet an even longer line live, maybe even a late ML if Houston keeps hanging around.

Click here to return to the table of contents.

Packers vs 49ers Odds, Picks

Saturday, Jan 20

8:15pm ET

FOX

Packers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+10.5 -115	50.5 -110o / -110u	+370

49ers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-10.5 -105	50.5 -110o / -110u	-480

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Pretty clean injury report! Jaire Alexander is questionable but played through that status last week. San Francisco hasn't played a meaningful game in a month and comes in with a mostly clean bill of health, including returns for guys like Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams and Arik Armstead, who all picked up late-season injuries. The one name to watch is LB Dre Greenlaw, questionable with an Achilles injury.
• The weather looks unpredictable but it does seem like it'll be a factor. It's San Francisco so no winter weather with temps in the 50s, but expect winds in the teens and likely scattered rain, with a high chance of rain on and off all weekend that could leave the field soggy. Games with 10+ MPH winds are 64% to the under over the past three regular seasons.
• You already know the 49ers' offense has been unstoppable. With McCaffrey, Williams, Deebo Samuel and Brock Purdy healthy this season, the 49ers rank first in both rushing and passing DVOA, the latter by a mile. San Francisco is the No. 1 offense by DVOA, but did you know the Packers are No. 2 since Week 9? Green Bay ranks top five both running and passing and has had three stellar weeks in a row against Vikings, Bears and Cowboys defenses that had great metrics for long stretches before the Packers demolished them.
• The biggest change during that time frame from Week 9 forward? Jordan Love, of course. Love floundered early and ranked second to last among starting QBs in Completion Percentage Over Expectation, but he ranks second-best since Week 9, and he's also top three in both EPA per play and PFF grade. That Cowboys game was no fluke. Love has played like an MVP since the start of November.

• For whatever reason, the 49ers defense has been significantly worse at home this season. San Francisco ranks just 19th by DVOA at home versus second on the road. The Niners also rank around league average in the first half by defensive DVOA versus fifth in the second half. Green Bay's defense is far better early too at 19th the first half — about as good as San Francisco! — before cratering to 31st in the second half. Could those trends help the Packers to hang around early and keep the pressure on the 49ers?
• Who will win the battle of the trenches? San Francisco could dominate with its rushing attack, but the 49ers' run defense is average so Aaron Jones and the Packers run game could find some success. The pass game could go Green Bay's way. San Francisco's pass blocking is pretty weak outside of Trent Williams, a path for Rashan Gary or Preston Smith to make an impact, while the Packers rank second in Pass Block Win Rate, which could stymie Nick Bosa and Chase Young and buy Love time to make plays.
• Kyle Shanahan gets more plaudits, but Matt LaFleur has been the better in-game coach with his analytics decisions and aggressiveness, both areas Shanahan leaves you wanting. Despite their youth, the Packers had the fewest sacks and turnovers allowed of any NFL team this season. The Packers will not give this game away. San Francisco is going to beat them.
• If this comes down to a special teams play, both teams better say their prayers. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league on special teams, and both start an unproven rookie place kicker that's struggled at times this season. Keisean Nixon is always a threat to be a difference-maker on kick returns for the Packers with his speed.

I didn't bet the Packers against the Cowboys but had this matchup circled if Green Bay survived. This red-hot Packers offense can score on the Niners. Green Bay should be able to run the ball against a beatable run defense, and Love has played like an MVP candidate and can be the best player on the field in this game. The Packers' offense can hang or cover through the back door.

But what if they do even more? San Francisco's defense is worse at home and worse in the first half, leaving the door open for the Packers to hang around. The Niners haven't been tested often, and they haven't really played a meaningful game since getting shellacked on Christmas night by the Ravens when Brock Purdy turned into a pumpkin.

What happens if Purdy sails another couple of early throws after a month of rust? Will his confidence fade? Will Kyle Shanahan's? This Niners offense should demolish this bad Packers D, but if San Francisco doesn't slam the door early, the pressure is all on the 49ers. Green Bay can win in the trenches, control the clock with Aaron Jones and long drives keeping all those Niners weapons on the sidelines and let Love cook against a vulnerable secondary.

Matt LaFleur is 20-9 ATS (69%) as an underdog, and his aggression will give Green Bay an advantage in this game against Shanahan. The Packers are 17-12 straight up as dogs under LaFleur, giving bettors an awesome 50% ROI on the moneyline, the best for any active coach. Road teams that missed last year's playoffs are 27-13 ATS (68%) in the Divisional Round. These are young, rising teams that just proved themselves with a big win, like the Packers.

Every bettor's instinct is to smash the rested, juggernaut 1-seeds in the Divisional Round, but history says to do the exact opposite. Home teams are just 42% ATS this round over the last two decades, and 1-seeds are even worse at 35%, including an awful 10-25-1 ATS (29%) when favored by 10 or fewer points. Only twice in the last two decades have both 1-seeds covered and won; they've gone 0-2 ATS a whopping eight times.

Home teams this round on a one-game losing streak — maybe because they rested and lost Week 18 like the 49ers and are rusty three weeks later? — are an ugly 3-15 ATS, with just one of the 18 winning by double digits.

I'm riding with the trends, and I'm riding with Love and LaFleur. Give me Packers +9.5 — and keep reading below because I'm not stopping there.

All those trends are great, and it's real cute what Green Bay did against the Cowboys, but did you see what the 49ers did to them in a 42-10 drubbing back in October? Or when the Niners dropped 42 in Philadelphia, or 30+ in Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Los Angeles and Seattle on the road against playoff contenders?

The 49ers have been a juggernaut hiding all season. That midseason injuries dip is long since in the rearview mirror now that the team is rested and healthy, and no one has stopped the healthy version of this offense in two seasons since Christian McCaffrey and Purdy moved into the lineup — other than that Ravens game we won't talk about right now.

The Niners just have far too many weapons for any opponent, let alone this bad Packers defense that ranks 27th by DVOA, bottom 10 against both the run and the pass. The Packers are going to cover George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk? They're going to shut down CMC and this rushing attack? Please. We've seen this movie before, in the playoffs against Green Bay, multiple times. We know how this ends.

All but one 49ers win this season has been by double digits, covering this spread, but show Love and the Packers' offense a little respect. If the Niners cover that spread, they probably did it by topping 30 points anyway. Heck, let Green Bay score — that just means getting the ball back even faster to Purdy and this offense to score on the hapless Packers defense once again.

This is the one — I'm all-in on the Packers this weekend. Maybe the Niners just come out and blow the doors off this Green Bay defense and that's that, but I smell one of those games where Green Bay plays well, hangs around and just keeps gaining confidence as the home fans watch in terror after a dominant season sits on the precipice. Trends love the Packers, and I see all sorts of potential matchup advantages.

Maybe the Packers cover through the back door, but I think they might just come through the front and win this thing. Underdogs of 7-to-11 points are 12-23 straight up in the Divisional Round the last two decades, giving bettors an awesome 52% ROI on the moneyline. Saturday is National Cheese Lover's Day! The Packers can win this.

But why stop there?

What happens if Green Bay wins? Now the Packers are in the NFC Championship Game having knocked out both of the top two seeds. That means either a game in Detroit, where the Packers already rolled the Lions on Thanksgiving or a trip to Tampa, where Green Bay might honestly be favored.

I'll love the Packers in either matchup, so I have to play Green Bay at +1000 to win the NFC. How often do we get by far the best of the four QBs left in the conference at 10-to-1? And if Green Bay can make the Super Bowl, then we have to at least nibble a +3000 ticket to win the whole thing. That's basically a Packers ML ticket once they get there, and we'd have easy options to hedge out and profit.

Remember the old story about giving a mouse a cookie, and then he wants a glass of milk and so on and so on? I think the Packers cover, and I think they can win this thing. And if they do that, they might not be done winning.

I don't just want a cookie. I want the whole freaking cheese wheel.

Click here to return to the table of contents.