NFL Divisional Round Referees: How to Bet Based on Prior Trends
The Action Network has combed through mounds of referee data to give you the most pertinent trends that bettors should know heading into this weekend's NFL Divisional Round.
- Texans vs. Ravens: John Hussey
- Packers vs. 49ers: Alex Kemp
- Bucs vs. Lions: Bill Vinovich
- Chiefs vs. Bills: Shawn Hochuli
Here are the most relevant betting trends associated with these referees in these specific matchups.
  |   |   |   |
Texans vs. Ravens
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Texans vs. Ravens Referee: John Hussey
The most eye-popping trend here is that home teams are 81-58-3 against the spread (ATS) in games with Hussey as the head referee. That's over a 58% win rate. A $100 bettor blindly betting each of those games would be up $1,563.
That means home teams are fantastic straight up, too. Home teams are 35-12 the last three seasons with Hussey as head ref, including 13-2 this season.
In addition, unders go 82-62-2 with Hussey as the head referee for a win percentage of 57%. It's the second-best mark out of any official besides Bill Vinovich, who will be reffing the Bucs vs. Lions game.
Packers vs. 49ers
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Packers vs. 49ers referee: Alex Kemp
The Packers are 2-8 ATS (but 6-4 straight up) with Kemp as referee. They've lost four in a row ATS and are 1-7 ATS the last eight games. These marks include a 2-7 ATS mark with LaFleur.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have covered four games in a row with Kemp. He has also reffed two 49ers playoff games, with the 49ers winning and covering each of those matchups (2023 vs. the Seahawks and 2022 at the Cowboys).
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Bucs vs. Lions
| Bucs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -290 |
Bucs vs. Lions referee: Bill Vinovich
As aforementioned, Vinovich is the most profitable referee to the under in the NFL. He's 100-67-1 overall. A blind $100 per game bettor would be up $2,658 by betting the under on each of Vinovich's games.
Vinovich is 73-42 since 2017 to the under (over 63%) and 10-5 this season. He's also 7-1 the last eight playoff games to the under.
On the spread, the Lions are 5-2 ATS the last seven games and 1-4 ATS the last five games with the Bucs with Vinovich at the helm.
Yet, on the moneyline, underdogs are extremely profitable with Vinovich as ref. A $100 per game bettor would be up $2,665, which is the most out of the 53 NFL referees we've tracked.
This one has a mix of data: except the under.
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Chiefs vs. Bills
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Chiefs vs. Bills referee: Shawn Hochuli
All signs point toward the Chiefs here, where Hochuli-led staffs have witnessed far more wins than losses.
The Chiefs are 8-2 straight up in games with Hochuli (but also 3-6-1 ATS). If the Chiefs win outright, of course, they'd cover the spread in the massive game against the Bills.
Also, road teams are 51-40-3 ATS with Hochuli, including 3-1 ATS in the playoffs.
And underdogs are a combined 140-108-7 ATS with Ed — the father — or Shawn Hochuli reffing.
Hochuli has reffed only two Bills games, with both being on the road. The Bills went 1-1 SU and ATS in those games.
The only other notable trend is on the under, which is 52-39-3 (57%) with Hochuli as referee.
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