Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
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It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback who was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 62-55 for +20.1U thus far.
This comes off last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5U. We can thank Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings — he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) and he threw an interception in five of six games when listed at plus-money.
For Week 14, I'm on Jake Browning and Patrick Mahomes to throw interceptions — check out my analysis below.
Colts vs. Bengals
Jake Browning
To Throw Interception (+105)
This is an all-time buy-low spot on Browning after his surprising Monday Night Football showing against the Jags. He went 32-for-37 through the air for 354 yards and a touchdown in Cincy's upset victory.
Fun story, but now there’s more tape available on Browning and he should not be catching plus-money odds to throw an interception. Prior to the season, Sean Koerner had Browning projected as the worst backup quarterback in terms of impact to the game spread. Koerner’s conclusion checked out when it came to interception odds as Browning was -165 vs. the Steelers and -175 vs. the Jaguars. If Browning threw an interception on Monday, this would be closer to -140 — listing this prop at plus-money is too much of an overcorrection by the books.
The Colts have shown defensive flashes over the last month. During their four-game winning streak, they’ve held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game with five INTs forced. For the season, Indy is ninth in INT rate per dropback (2.9%) and top 10 in passes defended per game. The Colts also cause a lot of havoc in the pocket and are second in sacks.
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Bills vs. Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
To Throw Interception (+105)
I’m big on the Bills winning this game and one of the ways they can stop the Chiefs is by forcing turnovers against K.C.’s stumbling offense. With how underwhelming the passing game has looked, I have to take Mahomes' interception prop.
Mahomes' INT issues have been an ongoing thing for about three seasons now. He has 10 interceptions in 2023 and 35 total in 47 regular-season games since the start of 2021. That’s 26-of-47 games overall (55.1%).
I'm not saying Mahomes is regressing, but the lack of offensive weapons has reared its head this season. Mahomes is trying to force passes a bit more when the Chiefs are trailing and sometimes the INTs come via a tipped ball from an inexperienced receiver who can't make the catch.
The Bills are essentially in do-or-die mode the rest of the way. They’re going to play aggressive and they have the defensive personnel to cause problems. They’re top five in sacks and pressure rate per dropback and top 10 in INT rate and passes defended per dropback.
For what it’s worth, in each of the last two seasons, the Chiefs have hosted the Bills and Mahomes has thrown two INTs in each of those games (both losses).
