Week 18 is always tricky for any kind of football speculation. Much of what we've learned throughout the course of the season goes out the window, as a large chunk of teams adopt a different approach in the final week. More than just resting starters, the expectation is that playoff-bound teams with nothing to play for will attempt to shorten the game through their play calling to keep the starters still active healthy before the postseason.
To that end, we'll be attempting to target games for live bets where that isn't the case, and both teams have something to play for — even if for one team that's just a chance to play spoiler.
Fortunately, there are a few options in each window on Sunday, so we can proceed as usual in those games — but be careful if venturing into other contests.
NFL Live Betting for Week 18 Sunday Night Football
Bills at Dolphins: Unders With a Bills Lead, Overs in a Close Game — LIVE BET MADE, Over 45.5 (-110, ESPN BET) and Bills Moneyline (+135, DraftKings)
Buffalo has had two interceptions in the Miami end zone and got stuffed at the one-yard line on the final play of the half. That's led to them trailing 14-7 at halftime against Miami, getting the ball first after halftime. That's about as bad as a team can run, and they've moved the ball well enough that they could easily have 28 points on the board. We'll take over 45.5 with the best line -110 at ESPNBet AND a slight sprinkle on the Bills moneyline at +135 (DraftKings), banking on the Bills offense to get some better breaks after halftime.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
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| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -104 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -158 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -118 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +134 |
This game has some of the most absurd pace splits in recent memory. It projects to play more than five seconds slower per play on average if Buffalo can get out to a multi-score lead, as the Bills have leaned heavily on their run in leading game scripts while Miami doesn't really pick up the pace when trailing.
Of course, the Dolphins typically don't need to play fast to score fast, as they get it done on big plays to their track team of a skill position group. That's obviously a risk for taking unders against them, but it's the right play by almost any available metric.
Buffalo features a top-ten passing defense by DVOA, while ranking bottom-five in yards allowed per rush. In theory a game script where Miami is chasing points should hurt efficiency, especially with Jaylen Waddle out for the Dolphins. The Bills can shift their entire defense to stopping Tyreek Hill if they're able to get out to an early lead.
The only scenario where this one plays faster than average is if it stays close (within one score either way.) A close game also allows both teams to attack however they wish offensively, a huge boost with these hyper-efficient units.
Ideally we'll also catch some movement in the total that aligns with how this game plays out. We'll be less picky in terms of the under — so if the line drops a hair from the pregame 48 with Buffalo up 21-0, we'd still take that bet. If taking the over, we'll be looking for more movement to the line due to a slow start. Otherwise it would make more sense to just bet the over pregame.
Our NFL Live Bets From Week 18 So Far
Vikings at Lions: Overs, Unless Detroit Goes Up Big — LIVE BET MADE, Under 42.5 (-118, FanDuel)
It's not a big Lions lead at 13-6 heading into halftime, but both offenses have stalled out on recent drives and Detroit tight end Sam LaPorta limped off with a knee injury late in the second quarter. Detroit may not rest starters, but expect them to play slower and try to shorten this game down the stretch to avoid further injury. On top of that, the total only dipped by four points despite a first half that fell well short of expectation, so we're going to pivot and take under 42.5 at -118 on FanDuel.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -188 |
These teams squared off just two weeks ago in Minnesota and combined for 54 points in a back-and-forth shootout. However, the pregame total this time is just 46, which suggests a more tepid affair.
That line implies that Detroit — who effectively has nothing to play for — is going to be resting starters, or at least playing run-heavy in order to shorten the game. That's not how Dan Campbell typically operates though, and he's publicly stated that it's business as usual this week. The Vikings still have an outside shot at the playoffs with a win, so they'll be going all out as well.
While this is a spot where a pregame over bet works, it also stands out as a live opportunity as well. Both teams tend to play a bit more conservatively in the first half before opening up in the second. Every game scenario projects to play slightly faster than average, with the fastest (and the likeliest) coming in a Lions lead.
The one exception is if Detroit goes up big early. While they still are unlikely to rest their starters, they might take things slow and lean more heavily on the run game if that were to happen. The spread is right around a field goal, though, so it's unlikely to get too out of hand.
We'll be looking for a better number sometime around halftime, with the potential to hedge or middle with an under bet if the Lions builds a big lead after that.
Eagles at Giants: Under With a Philly and Dallas Lead — NO BET MADE
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -120 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -240 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -102 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | +198 |
The headline of this one is a bit confusing, so let's walk through the scenarios. The Eagles and Cowboys are both 11-5, theoretically tied for the NFC East lead. The winner of the division gets a pair of home games to start the playoffs, while the loser begins the postseason on the road as a wild card team.
However, Dallas currently hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles, and will continue to do so if they have matching results this week. What that boils down to is that Philadelphia needs both a win and a Dallas loss to take the division, while Dallas controls its' own destiny.
With all that out of the way, it would make sense for the Eagles to rest key offensive pieces in this one if and when it looks like Dallas has their game in hand, especially if they're winning comfortably as well. Since NFL game day rosters consist of only 44 players, the Eagles won't be able to carry enough backups to rest everyone without declaring starters inactive before the game, but they can pull Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, and a few offensive lineman based on their typical active roster.
With both NFC East leaders playing at the same time, we'll need to keep an eye on both games to play this angle. Dallas is favored by roughly two touchdowns so it's more of a "when" than "if" they go up big. It's also reasonably likely that they take stock of the situation at halftime and pull Hurts (and others) from there.
Hopefully these teams do enough in the first half to drive the total up considerably from the pregame 43, but that's not a strict requirement this time around.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
