NFL Odds, Picks: Week 9 Betting Preview for Every Game, Every Team

Here's everything you need to know about NFL odds and picks in our Week 9 betting preview for every game and every team.

Yes, all of them. Every single game. Every single team. To go to a specific game or team, click on the matchup or logo below!

Below, we'll go through the latest, updated NFL odds for every game in Week 9, plus how to bet on every team in each game, with a focus on bets for fans of those teams (or those who just want to rent a rooting interest for a game), with my NFL Week 9 picks at the end.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. So let's get to the picks!

NFL Odds, Picks: Week 9 Betting Preview

Game	Road Pick	Home Pick
Dolphins vs Chiefs
Seahawks vs Ravens
Rams vs Packers
Vikings vs Falcons
Buccaneers vs Texans
Commanders vs Patriots
Bears vs Saints
Cardinals vs Browns
Cowboys vs Eagles
Giants vs Raiders
Colts vs Panthers
Bills vs Bengals
Chargers vs Jets

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you.

You can find my full betting card and the picks I'm actually making and tracking in the Action App at the bottom of this article (or by clicking the link just below).

And if you're an everyday NFL fan who's more curious about the odds or looking to place a bet on your favorite team, against your favorite rival or on a primetime game you'll be watching along with everyone else, we're here to help.

NFL Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team in Week 9

Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

9:30am ET

NFL Network

Dolphins Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -110	50.5 -115o / -105u	+102

Chiefs Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -110	50.5 -115o / -105u	-120

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Wake up! The NFL returns to Germany on Sunday morning and this might be the most exciting international game ever. It's the start of the best NFL slate of the season with one huge marquee game in each window — and luckily, you get an extra hour of sleep thanks to Daylight Saving Time.
• Miami's list of injury concerns is long, but appears to be trending in the right direction, which has caused this line to move toward the Dolphins. Offensive linemen Connor Williams and Terron Armstead are both trending up, and it looks like cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey will play. Also, safety Jevon Holland is out of concussion protocol and cleared to play. This might be Miami's healthiest team all season.

One area in which the Dolphins could gain a clear advantage on the Chiefs is the run game. Miami's rushing attack has been even more efficient, relatively speaking, than its dynamic passing attack for most of the season, and getting Armstead and Williams back would be a massive help.

The Chiefs' run defense hasn't been great, especially against outside runs, and that's where Raheem Mostert and Miami are at their best. Mike McDaniel is still a run guy at heart, and the best way to beat Patrick Mahomes is often just keeping him off the field. If Miami wins in Germany, it'll very likely be because it ran the football well. Mostert saw only nine and seven carries in Miami's big losses.

Mostert has at least 65 yards rushing in half of Miami's games, and he finished between 37 and 46 in the other three, basically just one long run from another over. And when he goes over, he often goes way over, with the ability to break a huge run at any time. He already has games of 82, 115 and 121, so bet the over, but play it with an escalator too. At bet365, +290 for 75+ yards and +825 for 100+ yards are both priced too long.

All the focus on this game will be on the elite offenses — and Miami's offense has been better than Kansas City's. But the main difference in this matchup comes on defense.

The Chiefs' defense ranks top five both against the pass and overall for the season, and Miami's offense has sputtered against top defenses. The Dolphins' defense also hasn't been very good and ranks bottom 10 by DVOA and bottom five in the first half. Miami has allowed 34 points to Justin Herbert, 48 to Josh Allen and 31 to Jalen Hurts. The Dolphins haven't been able to get off the field against great quarterbacks, and their one real strength, the pass rush, is negated by a Kansas City offensive line that leads the league in Pass Block Win Rate

Mahomes is a great quarterback, and we don't often get to bet on him with such a low line. Mahomes is 14-4-1 ATS (78%) when he's a favorite of 3.5-points (or underdog) in his career. He's also 14-3 SU after a loss. When the line is this tight, there's no need to complicate things. Just bet Mahomes.

I'm almost always happy to bet Mahomes on a short line, and I like the matchup for Kansas City's underrated defense. It's typically a good idea to bet the favorite in international games, too. Excluding Jaguars games, favorites are 22-9 ATS (71%) in international games — makes sense, right? Just take the better team on a neutral field.

Kansas City is the better team and I won't be thrown off by a Mahomes flu game in the Denver elevation, nor the line move toward Miami. Give me Mahomes and give me the team that plays defense, but I will sprinkle those Mostert escalators as a little high-upside hedge, just in case I'm wrong.

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Seahawks vs Ravens Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

1:00pm ET

CBS

Seahawks Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+5.5 -104	44.5 -105o / -115u	+215

Ravens Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-5.5 -118	44.5 -105o / -115u	-260

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Ravens quietly moved to No. 1 in overall DVOA with their win last week. Baltimore also ranks No. 1 in Defensive DVOA.
• Pete Carroll has been profitable as an underdog throughout his career at 48-32-3 ATS (60%). Geno Smith has also been good as an underdog at 20-14-2 ATS (59%).

Seattle's defense has quietly improved significantly. The run defense ranks top 10 and has been great against inside runs, so that could slow things against Baltimore. Seattle's defense has ranked top five on the road, and rookie Devon Witherspoon is upgrading a dynamic young secondary that forces turnovers and makes big plays.

Lamar Jackson has struggled as a home favorite of 3-to-10 points, where he is just 4-15 ATS (21%). So, this hasn't been a great spot for the Ravens. Seattle has held four straight opponents below this number, though against a much softer slate of quarterbacks. Can the Seahawks hold up against Jackson too?

Baltimore's offense has been far better early as the team uses those scripted Todd Monken plays to strike quickly. The Ravens offense ranks third in DVOA in the first half, and Seattle's defense ranks 27th in the first half, versus fifth after halftime.

The Ravens have been excellent in the first half for most of Jackson's career. He's 43-24-2 ATS lifetime in the first half, a 64% hit rate, and that's continued this season (6-2 ATS). Check out the scorelines of the past five Ravens games at halftime: 21-3, 10-3, 18-3, 28-0 and 14-7. That's an average of 18.2 PPG and just 3.2 PPG allowed.

Seattle is good, but Baltimore is better on both ends of the field and better at home. The Ravens will make a statement early.

I can't shake the funny feeling that this is a really bad matchup for the Seahawks, even though I quite like Seattle. I worry that the Ravens could get ahead quickly and that it could be an avalanche from there. But I also don't see much value on the number at the moment, so I haven't found a good way to bet Baltimore just yet. I may still add a Ravens bet later.

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Rams vs Packers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

1:00pm ET

FOX

Rams Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -105	38.5 -105o / -115u	+138

Packers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -115	38.5 -105o / -115u	-164

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Matt Stafford is listed as questionable with a thumb injury and looks like a true game-time decision. This line has moved from LA slight favorites to Packers -3 and now -3.5 at some books. That still feels like a bit of a hedge. If Stafford is out, expect it to move past that key number of Packers -3 everywhere and maybe even -4. If he plays, it likely passes the key number the other direction toward a pick'em.
• Both teams are trending in the wrong direction after good starts to the season. The Rams plummeted from 13th to 21st in DVOA last week alone, while the Packers rank second to last both defensively and in overall DVOA over the last month.

It's pretty tough to bet the Rams without knowing if Stafford going to play, especially since it's a big drop to Brett Rypien if he doesn't. That would be too bad since the Packers secondary is banged up and vulnerable deep, so a healthy Stafford could've eaten in this game.

Whoever plays at QB, expect them to target Kupp early and often, especially with Puka Nacua iffy himself with a knee sprain. Kupp is coming off the worst two-game stretch of his career since breaking out, but Green Bay ranks bottom three against WR1s by DVOA. He's still getting plenty of targets, just not converting them to catches the last two weeks. Take advantage of the reduced line with the volume there.

Look, it's not like the Packers are scoring these days. Green Bay's offense is practically invisible in the first half and has scored 20 points or less in five games straight. The Packers are averaging just 17.0 PPG since an easy win over the Bears in their season opener.

Maybe Joe Barry's defense can finally do its a job against a Rams offense potentially missing its top QB, RB, and offensive lineman, and maybe Nacua too. Sean McVay totals below 44 are 16-10 to the under (62%), and if this drops even a half-point further it fits a trend for totals at 38 or below that dropped at least 4.5 points are 29-11-2 to the under (73%).

It's just too hard to feel confident with the status of the best player in the game up in the air, and I lean toward Stafford sitting with the Rams on bye next week. It's not like either team has been predictable anyway, so I'll stay away, but I'll be watching. Winner stays very much in the NFC playoff mix.

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Vikings vs Falcons Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

1:00pm ET

FOX

Vikings Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3.5 -105	37.5 -105o / -115u	+166

Falcons Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3.5 -115	37.5 -105o / -115u	-198

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Both teams will start a new quarterback. Fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall starts for the Vikings after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, and Joshua Dobbs is the new backup after being acquired via trade. The Falcons will start Taylor Heinicke in place of Desmond Ridder, at least for this week.
• That Minnesota QB downgrade is massive until Hall proves otherwise. The Vikings drop from 13th to 21st in my offensive rankings. Heinicke may actually be an upgrade, moving the Falcons from 16th to 13th on offense. Those QB changes have moved the line from Falcons -1 to -4.5.
• Atlanta also lost stalwart DT Grady Jarrett for the season on Sunday, a key run stopper and maybe the best defender on the roster.

The Vikings grade out significantly better than the Falcons on both sides of the ball. This line moved too far. Hall might be good, and Heinicke could struggle against Minnesota's pressure.

Brian Flores' defense ranks top 10 by DVOA and top five over the past month, and Minnesota's QB doesn't change that. The defense also ranks top five for the season in the first half. Atlanta's offense has been poor all year, but especially in the first half, and the Falcons are just 1-7 ATS in first halves on the season.

At +3, we get the key number and also avoid worrying about a second-half collapse.

Both teams have been going under for the season as Atlanta is 6-2 to the under and Minnesota is 7-1. The Falcons have struggled to score all year and Heinicke may not be a magic elixir, especially against a good defense. If Atlanta wins, it will be because the defense did the job against a rookie QB.

Totals at 38 or below that dropped at least 4.5 from open are 29-11-2 to the under (73%) over the past two decades. This total is also dropping as low as 37 at some books, and totals at 37 or below are 21-6-1 to the under (78%) over the past four calendar years. When the total drops this low, it's usually for a reason.

Too many unknowns to invest, particularly at QB. I'll just dream about Gary Anderson making that field goal in the 1998 NFC Championship Game instead of ruining my life forever.

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Buccaneers vs Texans Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

1:00pm ET

CBS

Buccaneers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -115	40 -110o / -110u	+124

Texans Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -105	40 -110o / -110u	-144

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Typically, home field advantage is worth about 2.5 points to the line. Since this line has sat right at Texans -2.5 all week, books are effectively telling us they rate these teams as even on a neutral field.
• Both offenses have been inefficient on early downs, but elite on third downs. That's typically a sign that offensive regression could be coming. That could make for a random result that comes down to a few late-down conversions for either side.

White hasn't had a great season as a runner. Tampa Bay ranks last in Run Block Win Rate, and he's a better pass catcher anyway and has caught all but one of his targets this season. That could set up for a nice game against the league's worst defense against receiving RBs by DVOA.

White has at least three receptions in six straight games and had six and seven receptions in the past two games. Play White's receptions over, or sprinkle on 6+ catches at +310 and 7+ at +626 (bet365). Those numbers are clearly in range, and the game script could help if the Bucs are trailing on the road and Baker Mayfield goes into check-down mode in the hurry-up offense.

It doesn't make sense that books are treating these teams as equals on a neutral field. Houston is inconsistent, but better. The Texans' offense has been far better than Tampa's. Neither team can run the ball, but C.J. Stroud and Houston's passing game have been outstanding and have the clear edge here.

Houston can win this game in the trenches. The Bucs haven't rushed the passer well, so Houston's healthier offensive line can give Stroud time to succeed, and a terrific Texans defensive line can win against the Bucs makeshift line and put Baker Mayfield under pressure.

This was my lookahead pick a week ago. I'll admit I expected the Texans to beat Carolina last week, and that was a disappointing loss, but the Texans are still the better side and are playing at home. I think this line closes at -3 or above, so grab Houston below the key number while you can.

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Commanders vs Patriots Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

1:00pm ET

FOX

Commanders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -110	40.5 -114o / -106u	+138

Patriots Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -110	40.5 -114o / -106u	-164

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Washington made the biggest waves at the trade deadline as it traded away both starting defensive ends — Chase Young and Montez Sweat. As a result, the Commanders negated their biggest strength, the pass rush.
• New England's offensive line has struggled all season and ranks last in Pass Block Win Rate, so this was a particular stroke of fortune for the Patriots. Washington's defense already ranked last by DVOA over the past four weeks and it just got worse.

Is Dotson finally starting to get going? It sure looks like it over the past two weeks as Dotson had 18 targets and went over this line in each game with five catches for 43 yards, then eight for 108 yards and a score last week in his best game of the season.

The Patriots are the best in the league against opposing WR1s by DVOA, so Sam Howell will need more than just Terry McLaurin this week. It looks like a perfect time for Dotson to step up with another good outing, especially with Curtis Samuel sidelined.

The Patriots have the one good unit on the field, their defense. New England's pass defense has been uneven but should get pressure on Howell, and the stout run defense should limit Washington's better attack.

Washington ranks bottom four on both offense and defense in the first half of games, so this is a great chance for the Patriots to get in front and get an easy win against a poorly coached team that looks like it might be packing it in for the season.

I do like the Patriots here, but not enough to go to crazy. I'll play a half unit on Patriots -3, but go no further.

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Bears vs Saints Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

1:00pm ET

CBS

Bears Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+8.5 -110	41 -110o / -110u	+315

Saints Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-8.5 -110	41 -110o / -110u	-400

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Justin Fields remains out, which means a third consecutive start for Division II Shepherd University's Tyson Bagent at QB for the Bears.
• The Saints have reverse home-road splits on the season. They rank 11th on offense and eighth on defense on the road, but have struggled at home (31st on offense and 17th on defense).

Think of it less as betting on Bagent and more as betting against Derek Carr and Dennis Allen as huge favorites. Allen has never been favored by more than six, and he's an awful 5-13-1 ATS (28%) as a favorite. Carr is 18-34-1 ATS as a favorite (35)% and has lost 13 of his past 21 outright when favored.

The Saints are the better team, but not by as much as this line reflects. Chicago has actually been closer to league average by DVOA and EPA over the past month.

From Week 4 forward, the Bears rate similarly to the Bengals, Dolphins and Saints by EPA. Chicago's offense is 12th in EPA and first in the run game. The defense is also first against the run and 19th overall, not great but no longer terrible. For two teams that lean so heavily on the run, that improvement means Chicago can hang — or even win.

Chicago's defense ranks bottom five for the season by DVOA, both overall and against the pass. Carr's debut season in New Orleans hasn't been great, but this is a good spot for him to put up big numbers. Chicago has allowed 17 passing TDs, the second most of any team.

It's always tricky with Carr since he loses red zone touches to Taysom Hill, but Carr has thrown at least two touchdowns in two of the past four games. If the Saints are the real deal, Carr should be able to find the end zone twice.

The Bears aren't good! But they're also no longer as terrible as they looked the first few weeks. It's almost always a good idea to consider fading Allen and Carr as favorites.

When Carr is more than a 3-point favorite, he's just 11-11 SU and has lost five of his past six. If you simply bet the moneyline against Carr every time he was favored by more than three in his career, you'd be rocking a 44% ROI. This line is too high for two teams that simply aren't this far apart.

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Cardinals vs Browns Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

1:00pm ET

CBS

Cardinals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+8.5 -115	37.5 -110o / -110u	+300

Browns Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-8.5 -105	37.5 -110o / -110u	-375

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The QB situation for both teams is messy, but it looks like Deshaun Watson will make his return for Cleveland to face Arizona rookie Clayton Tune in his NFL debut. It remains to be seen whether either QB will finish the game, with Watson's issues and with Kyler Murray looking nearly ready to go.
• The QB unknowns both ways make this a very difficult game to bet on, but one thing seems certain: a fifth-round QB (Tune) debuting on the road against this nasty Jim Schwartz defense feels like a recipe for disaster.

I'd love to find you some Cards prop but let's be real: Clayton Tune is in big trouble. Arizona's offense ranks 26th in DVOA on the road and bottom three overall the last three weeks after a hot start, and we're down to unknowns at QB, RB, WR, and TE with a bad, young line against a filthy defensive front seven.

At this point, can we just root for this to go as badly as possible to get Kyler out there ASAP? A rookie QB under pressure all game is sure to make some mistakes. Could that lead to a defensive score? How about two? We've had 21 games over the last decade with multiple defensive TDs. That's 0.8% likely versus the 1.6% implied we're getting at +6000. Is this game twice as likely as a random one to see two defensive touchdowns? Sure feels like it.

There is some good news for Cardinals fans. The last NFL game with two defensive TDs came last October and the Cards were involved then two, racking up two pick-6s a minute apart against Andy Dalton.

Who the heck knows what the offense will look like with Watson playing? That makes it too hard to feel confident in this side to cover or even win a teaser, but the defense is worth trusting. Cleveland has already held two opponents to three points, so how about a home shutout?

We've seen 53 shutouts over the past decade, about 2.0% of all games. That's about one every three weeks. It's Week 9 and we've had two shutouts, so we're due. At +1300, that's implied 7.1%. Is this game 3.5 times as likely as a random game to end in a shutout? It's easily the most likely shutout on the slate.

I loved Browns -7.5 as a teaser, but this line ballooned to -11.5 now and I just don't need that with the QB unknowns. Will Watson suck? Will he finish the game? Will Kyler Murray get in? I'd guess no, yes, no, but the one thing I'm confident in here is that Clayton Tune starting on the road against this Browns defense will go very poorly. I'll sprinkle two goofy outcomes for it going really poorly.

Looking for a new sportsbook in Arizona, Cardinals fans? Check out Hard Rock Sportsbook promo code to get up to $1,000 in deposit match when you sign up!

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Cowboys vs Eagles Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

4:25pm ET

FOX

Cowboys Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -105	46.5 -115o / -105u	+148

Eagles Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -115	46.5 -115o / -105u	-176

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• We waited for clarity on Jalen Hurts and Tyron Smith health and a potential line move and got none of it. Smith remains a real question mark. Hurts is off the injury report but re-aggravated a bone bruise last week, so he could be a bit limited. The line remains stuck at that key number of -3.
• It's hard to know much with certainty about this division rivalry since we didn't get either Hurts vs. Dak Prescott matchup a year ago and then didn't get the playoff rematch. We've waited two seasons for these teams to go head-to-head at their peak, but we don't necessarily know what to expect.

The Curse of the Power Rankings suggests a bet on Dallas ML, and that's the direction I'd lean if I had to pick a side. Dak Prescott is 25-10 ATS (71%) in the division, including 4-2 ATS as a division underdog and 3-1 SU as a road dog in division games. But it's hard to bet a side in such a big game knowing so little.

If Dallas does play well, it'll have to be on Prescott's shoulders. The Cowboys rushing attack has not been great and could struggle against a top defensive front that ranks 1st in Run DVOA. But the Eagles pass defense looks very leaky, dropping from 17th to 23rd by DVOA just last week alone, and veteran corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry both look beatable while Philadelphia is dead last against tight ends.

Prescott is over this line in five of seven games, and the two unders were huge blowouts where he sat late. He's over 248.5 passing yards in 13 of his last 17, hitting this 76% of the time.

As great as Dallas's defense has been at times, the run defense remains a bit vulnerable. The Cowboys rank only 20th in Run Stop Win Rate and have been one of the league's worst defenses against rushing QBs.

That would be great new for Hurts if he were healthy, but he doesn't look right with that injury. He had only four rushes last week, his fewest the past two seasons. He's gone under this line only six times during that stretch, though he was just barely over at nine in five other games. This line is 6.5 at most books, so it's a stray spot at PointsBet to find some value when books are admitting they too don't think Hurts looks right.

I don't feel confident about either side, but I like this bet regardless of outcome — either Prescott passes Dallas to a win or is throwing from behind. If he does put up a big line in a win, Dallas effectively ties Philly for the NFC 1-seed and will be the talk of the NFC all week. If you like the Cowboys to win, you should invest in Prescott to win MVP at +4000 (DraftKings) too.

Pennsylvania bettors don't need a Unibet promo code to sign up and receive $500 in second chance bets if their wager on the Eagles doesn't win on Sunday night!

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Giants vs Raiders Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

4:25pm ET

FOX

Giants Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -110	37.5 -105o / -115u	+108

Raiders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -110	37.5 -105o / -115u	-126

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• You don't have to do this, I promise. There are other ways to spend your Sunday.
• Josh McDaniels won't have to do this either as he was fired on Halloween, along with the Raiders GM. Former LB Antonio Pierce takes over as interim coach and Las Vegas also benched Jimmy Garoppolo for rookie Aidan O'Connell, who will make his second start at QB.

These are the two worst offenses in the league by DVOA, but both defenses are quietly improving. The Raiders pass defense is near league average, and the Giants defense is near top 10 by DVOA over the past month. Both defenses have the advantage in this matchup, and these teams are a combined 13-3 to the under.

It's usually a good idea to back the underdog in a low under. Brian Daboll is 8-3 ATS (73%) after a loss and Daniel Jones is 17-7 ATS (71%) as a road underdog. It looks like he'll be back and this is where you want to back Danny Dimes.

Adams showed his frustration in the loss on Monday night. He had at least 66 yards in each of his first four games, but has failed to top 57 in the four games since. However, his last quality game came with O'Connell at QB.

Young QBs tend to lock onto their top receiving option, for better and for worse. O'Connell targeted Adams 13 times, his second highest mark of the season, for eight catches and 75 yards. That's the exact number we need here, so bet on volume, especially against a bad secondary that ranks bottom 10 against WR1s.

I liked the under until the Raiders blew up their team. A change at GM, coach and QB reeks of ownership stepping in, and it's impossible to know how the team will respond. This game sucks anyway, so I'll stay away.

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Colts vs Panthers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

4:05pm ET

CBS

Colts Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-2.5 -112	43.5 -112o / -108u	-144

Panthers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+2.5 -108	43.5 -112o / -108u	+122

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Panthers finally got off the schneid last week. Carolina won its first game of the year and also got its first cover of the season.
• Carolina coach Frank Reich's last win came with the Colts a year ago before being fired midseason. That could leave some ill feelings and a possible revenge spot for Reich against his old team.

The script sets up well for Indianapolis to run all over the Panthers. Carolina ranks last against the run by DVOA, and the Colts' rushing attack is fourth best. Shane Steichen has really put his stamp on this team by revitalizing the offensive line and winning in the trenches with the run game, just like he did in Philadelphia.

Jonathan Taylor's return has helped, of course. It's been a slow, but steady ramp-up for Taylor. He had only six and eight carries in his first two games back, but has put up 18/75 and 12/95 over the past two games. Additionally, his snap percentage has steadily increased from 15% to 42%, 50%, then 61%.

Taylor is the clear starter ahead of Zack Moss and has gone over 64.5 rushing yards in 21 of his past 24 Colts starts (88%). I like the alternate line of 75+ even better.

Colts overs have been profitable this season (6-2), despite all the unders around the league. Indianapolis plays fast, and its defense has been trending down in recent weeks.

Bryce Young and Carolina's offense looked much better coming out of the bye last week and should get even better in Thomas Brown's second game calling plays. The Colts are going to score on this defense, but Carolina can also put up some points. The over is ticking up, so grab it now.

This is my favorite prop of the week, and I like the alternate line even better than the original since it's just 10 yards more at a far better payout. Taylor has rushed for at least 75 yards in 19 of his past 24 starts. That's a 79% hit rate, but we're getting implied 38% odds — over double the value on the alternate line. I'll stop the escalator there as Taylor is still sharing some touches and has only hit 100 yards in one of his past 11 games.

Panthers fans: North Carolina sports betting is coming soon! Are you ready? Be sure to check out Action Network's sportsbook reviews to select your preferred books come 2024.

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Bills vs Bengals Odds, Picks

Sunday, Nov 5

8:20pm ET

NBC

Bills Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -105	49.5 -110o / -110u	+108

Bengals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -115	49.5 -110o / -110u	-126

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Josh Allen is off the injury report and good to go. It remains to be seen whether the injury to that throwing shoulder limits Allen's ability to throw downfield or run with his usual abandon.
• The Bills traded for CB Rasul Douglas at the deadline. He's a huge addition for a defense that's dropped to league average without CB Tre'Davious White, LB Matt Milano, and DT DaQuan Jones, but it's hard to say how much of an immediate impact Douglas will make this game.
• This game comes with a huge amount of baggage. This was the Monday night matchup when Damar Hamlin got injured in January, and the teams met again three weeks later when Cincinnati went to Buffalo and punked the Bills in the playoffs, 27-10.
• Needless to say, this is a huge result for both teams. Whoever loses gets their fourth loss by the season's midpoint and is in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs entirely.

Buffalo's defense ranks bottom five in DVOA over the last month and that's getting all the attention, but the offense ranks first over the same stretch. Cincinnati's defense is middling or below average by many metrics and looks vulnerable to Josh Allen when he's playing like this.

Allen is 16-7-2 ATS (70%) as an underdog for his career. That includes 8-1-1 ATS (89%) as an underdog of three or less, and the Bills are 7-3 SU in those games. McDermott is also 16-23 SU as an underdog for his career, with bettors making 30% ROI betting the moneyline in those games.

This is really a bet on McDermott as much as Allen. Buffalo's defense was embarrassed in that playoff loss. Cincinnati opened the game with two long TD drives and had the ball at least six plays every drive, and that defensive collapse led directly to McDermott firing defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier to take over the defense and mix up coverages. This is the game he and the team have been waiting for. Buffalo has a huge advantage in the trenches both ways. This is a game Buffalo simply has to have.

The Bills have the better season-long metrics but Buffalo is trending down and Cincinnati is finally looking itself and starting to peak at the right time. Joe Burrow is coming off his best game of the season by far, and Ja'Marr Chase has been unstoppable over the past month after those two quiet opening games.

Chase is averaging 10 catches for 117 yards over the past five games. He's been targeted 13.6 times a game with at least 12 targets in all but one of those games, finally getting used as a true WR1 for a team in desperate need of offensive consistency with Tee Higgins hurt and struggling.

This is where the Bills will miss Tre'Davious White, and Buffalo ranks 29th against WR1s by DVOA on the season, so this looks like a great spot for another big game.

How healthy is Allen? How much can Rasul Douglas contribute? Is Burrow as healthy as he looked last week? Is Cincinnati as good as it looked, and is Buffalo as bad? How will the Bills respond to last year's embarrassing playoff loss? How will Buffalo's defense play the Bengals differently this time around?

There's too much baggage both ways in this game, and it's impossible to cap emotion or make a confident read here with so many big unknowns. If anything, I'd look at betting Miss Playoffs for whichever team I expected to lose this game. I find both teams a bit flawed, so I'll watch and learn.

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Chargers vs Jets Odds, Picks

Monday, Nov 6

8:15pm ET

ABC/ESPN

Chargers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3.5 -104	40.5 -105o / -115u	-176

Jets Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3.5 -118	40.5 -105o / -115u	+148

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Chargers are running thin at receiver. Mike Williams is out for the season and Joshua Palmer remains a question mark on the injury report. Rookie Quentin Johnston hasn't done much yet either, and TE Gerald Everett is also playing through injury.
• This talented Jets defense has been at its best against the best competition this season. At home on a Monday night with another great QB in town, expect another big effort.

Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback and looked the part against a terrible Bears defense on Sunday night but he's been struggling a bit overall. He's thrown four interceptions the last four games and still seems to be struggling with that finger injury, and the lack of weapons outside of Keenan Allen isn't helping.

This Jets defense has made life absolutely miserable for opposing elite QBs this season. Josh Allen threw three interceptions in the opener, Patrick Mahomes had two, and Jalen Hurts had three. This defense plays with an extra level of pride and fury against these top QBs. Our Gilles Gallant has written extensively about the value of interception props at plus-money this season. Herbert has eight games with multiple picks, so that's worth a sprinkle too.

This line is just all wrong. It's downright disrespectful to this defense, and the Jets will take that personally. The Chargers have been just as poor starters as the Jets for the season, and New York is 5-2 ATS in the second half while LA has struggled in second halves so the pressure only increases in a game both teams desperately need for their playoff hopes.

New York's offense might be able to hang against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last in the first half and just 27th overall by DVOA on the season. Breece Hall should find some running room and Garrett Wilson could eat against a beatable secondary. The Chargers also have a poor pass rush, so that could let New York's shoddy line off the hook.

The Jets just keep finding ways to stay in games, and the Chargers always leave the door open. Even a New York loss could easily see a cover in a close loss with us getting the key number and the hook.

This line just doesn't make any sense to me. I make this a pick'em with the Jets so tough against great QBs and the Chargers missing so many receivers and struggling so badly in defense and on special teams. There are too many ways this can go wrong for LA and a ton of ways this can go right for the Jets, especially late.

This is my favorite teaser of the week too. The Jets have either won or lost by one possession, covering the +9.5 teaser, in 18 of their last 21 (86%). The Chargers are notorious for playing one-score games. They've either played a one-score game or lost outright in 21 of 25 of their games since the start of last season, failing to cover -9.5 in 84% of those. I like teasing the next two Chargers opponents, adding Detroit +1.5 next week teased to +7.5 if your book will allow it.

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Week 9 Full Betting Card, Expert Picks

• Chiefs -1.5
• Jonathan Taylor over 64.5 rushing yards | 75+ yards (+160)
• Bears +8.5 & sprinkle ML +330
• Texans -2.5
• Dak Prescott over 248.5 passing yards
• Jets +3.5
• Patriots -2.5
• Tease Jets +3.5 with Lions +1.5 next week to Jets +10.5 & Lions +7.5
• Sprinkle Raheem Mostert rushing yards escalator: 75+ yards (+290) | 100+ yards (+825)
• Sprinkle Browns shutout win (+1300) | Browns 2 D/ST TDs (+6000)
• Week 10 Lookahead: Lions +1.5 at Chargers

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