Betting NFL parlays via Anytime Touchdown Scorers is incredibly fun, even if they’re mostly a losing proposition that will drain your bankroll if you’re not careful. Most sportsbooks tend to clean up on this type of bet, so how do we scratch the “parlay itch” without overextending ourselves financially?
Allow me to introduce “The 180 Challenge.” Here’s how it works:
Each week, I'll be betting a 3-leg NFL Anytime TD parlay that equates to +1800 or more. $10 per parlay ticket, $180 total for the season.
The goal is to win as much as possible. But the safety net is, you only need to hit one parlay all season to make your money back. If you go 0-18 (which is unfortunate), the positive spin is it's only $180.
This way, we can still participate with fun touchdown parlays while managing our bankroll and not going overboard on bad spending habits. We finally hit our 22-1 parlay a few weeks ago. That means we’re playing with house money the rest of the season, for those following along.
Disclaimer: 18-1 parlays have less than 5% chance of hitting, and that percentage only shrinks as you increase the parlay odds. Keep your expectations in check and bet on these for recreation.
Continue below for my NFL parlay picks for Week 10.
NFL Parlay Picks Week 10
- George Kittle Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
- Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (+160)
- Kyler Murray Anytime TD Scorer (+230)
Parlay Odds: +2045 (FanDuel)
49ers vs. Buccaneers Parlay Leg: George Kittle
Niners' tight end George Kittle leads all TEs in touchdowns this season.
This week, the 49ers will face a Tampa Bay defense that plays zone coverage at a top-5 rate in the NFL, and Kittle leads San Francisco in target share against zone.
The Buccaneers' defense has already allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, currently ranked 29th in defensive DVOA against the position.
With the Niners getting healthy, look for Kittle to keep shining.
Bills vs. Colts Parlay Leg: Josh Allen
Bills' QB Josh Allen only has three rushing touchdowns this season. However, he nearly had his fourth last week against Miami, but it was called back on a penalty.
Despite only scoring three TDs on the ground so far this season, Allen ranks 3rd among all quarterbacks in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line.
This week, he'll face a Colts' defense that is below-average at stopping the run.
With some of his receiving options limited this week, I expect Allen to run even more, which very may well lead to a rushing touchdown.
Jets vs. Cardinals Parlay Leg: Kyler Murray
Cardinals' QB Kyler Murray has also underperformed in the anytime touchdown market so far this season, with only two entering Week 10, and both of them came on huge runs.
However, the Cardinals will face a Jets' defense this week that has a very strong secondary, but the same cannot be said about their ground defense.
The Jets rank 24th in defensive DVOA against the run, and they've especially struggled to contain opposing QBs in the red zone, having already allowed three rushing TDs to the quarterback position this season.
Look for Murray to use his legs and get the Cardinals on the board this week.
