Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) on my betting card for every Sunday slate. This week, one is for Sunday night.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 16-22-1
- Overall: 53-39-1
If you're looking to bet on some ugly underdogs this week, you've come to the right place. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 15 picks against the spread.
NFL Picks: Week 15
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Cowboys vs. Panthers Prediction
Panthers -2.5 (-115)
On the surface, this is a horrible spot for the Cowboys. After suffering a gut-punch loss (due to a botched block punt), their postseason chances are essentially shot. Now, on a short week, they have to pick themselves back up for a road game in rainy and cold Charlotte.
Meanwhile, the Panthers, who have been out of playoff contention for weeks, have been playing extremely hard and remain undervalued in the market for a number of reasons; hence, why they have covered five straight. This is a team that could easily have three straight wins over division leaders in Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Kansas City — all games that came down to the final play of the game.
For starters, the defense, while still bad, is as healthy as it's been all season and should get Jadeveon Clowney back this week (I do have my eyes on Jaycee Horn, who was limited Thursday for what it's worth). Carolina was ravaged by injuries earlier in the year, leaving it with as little talent as you'll find on an NFL stop unit. The Panthers can now at least field a unit full of professionals and still have a coordinator, Ejiro Evero, who I rate highly.
The run defense is still abominable, but the Cowboys, while improving, have a bottom-five offense in terms of rush efficiency. Dallas won't completely dominate Carolina on the ground, especially with another interior offensive line (Zack Martin on IR) injury with Cooper Beebe suffering a concussion on Monday night.
By design, the Panthers' heavy cover-3 defense makes opponents beat them efficiently through the air. Well, that might be difficult for Cooper Rush, who has played as poorly as any quarterback in the NFL since taking over for the injured Dak Prescott.
Per PFF, he ranks 40th of 40 quarterbacks and likely has major turnover regression coming. Despite a 7-3 TD-INT ratio, he has only three Big Time Throws to eight turnover-worthy plays. I expect a key mistake or two from Rush on Sunday.
While Rush continues to struggle, Bryce Young continues his amazing ascent since re-entering the lineup as the starter. If we just focus on the time period since Rush took over, here's where each ranks in EPA+CPOE out of 32 qualified quarterbacks:
- 18. Bryce Young +0.088 (basically on par with Baker Mayfield)
- 31. Rush -0.030
- 32. Drew Lock -0.034
Rush and Lock are the only two in the red over that span. And while 18th might not get Young any Pro Bowl votes, it's a remarkable improvement from where he had been before being benched.
Not only has his footwork improved, but he just looks much more confident and also has a top-five Big Time Throw rate over the past month against some pretty good defenses. It's very narrative-based, but he also appears to be finally enjoying himself out there, which speaks to some of that growing confidence, something that was previously non-existent.
Most importantly, he's looked great under pressure, a major signal of real improvement. And if there's one strength on this Dallas team, it's the ability to get pressure. I have faith that Young can manage that potential pressure, but he also will be helped out by one of the better offensive lines in the league and a run game that should feast on a vulnerable Dallas run defense that ranks last in Rush EPA. Chuba Hubbard should have a big day on the ground, which should make everything easier for Young, who should also get another weapon back in Jalen Coker.
Another boost for Carolina: Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs has been ruled out due to a knee injury.
This is a great situational spot and a pretty ideal matchup for Carolina to finally get over the hump at home after three straight heartbreaking losses.
Trending: As a road underdog, Mike McCarthy is just 13-18 ATS (41.9%) during his time in Dallas. Also, road teams at .500 or below coming off a loss on a short week have gone just 10-19 ATS (34.5%) in December, failing to cover by 3.7 points per game on average (when their opponent is on normal rest). That includes an 0-8 record against the number since 2017 with the most recent example coming last week with Cleveland traveling to Pittsburgh after its Monday night meltdown.
I'd bet the Panthers as long as it's below -3. Play this to -2.5 at -125.
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Bills vs. Lions Prediction
Bills +2.5
I liked this a lot earlier in the week before the injury reports flipped in Detroit's favor with the Lions seemingly getting a bit healthier on defense (although still far from 100%) and Buffalo potentially down three starters in the secondary. Is it Micah Hyde time? We'll see what the veteran has left in the tank if he gets activated.
With that said, I still like the Bills catching 2.5 or better, but I'm going to wait all the way up until kick to see if I can get a 3, even if I have to buy it at a reasonable price (-120 or better ideally).
The Lions were going to have success on offense (especially on the ground in this matchup) no matter how many injuries the Bills have or how many snaps they had to play last week in Los Angeles (a lot!). Buffalo does at least play a lot of zone and doesn't blitz much, which you need to do against a Detroit offense that has had more success against man coverage than any other offense in the league by an astronomical margin. Sean McDermott's goal should be to bend, but not break and hope to get a mistake or two by Jared Goff, while getting a few stops in the red zone.
If Buffalo can do that, it can win this game. I don't see many paths for Detroit's defense to get stops against a Bills offense that has scored 30-plus in five straight games.
Plus, Josh Allen is just a different animal when playing indoors. Many reference Goff's success indoors, but Allen has sparkled in controlled environments. Including last week's loss in Los Angeles, Allen is 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) indoors, covering by 9.2 points per game.
Allen should also see an extremely high frequency of man coverage, which he can absolutely rip apart due to his mobility — something the Lions have struggled with under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. This Lions' defense has played very well this season, but they haven't really faced an elite quarterback with a fully healthy offensive unit this season. They can get away with aggressive blitzing and man coverage on the outside with plenty of single-high looks against bad-to-mediocre quarterbacks, but that won't be the case against the top-tier signal callers in the league, especially those with supreme mobility.
The Lions have been the most dominant team in the league to date, but they have also blown out some horrendous quarterbacks. It's easy to forget they've also gone 6-1 in one-possession games.
Getting points with Allen will always pique my interest and I think this a great spot and matchup for the Bills to boot. For what it's worth, Allen has gone 27-14-2 ATS (65.9%) as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal, covering by five points per game. That includes an 18-8-2 (69.2%) mark when away from home in that situation.
Trending: Teams with a win percentage north of 90% in December have gone 21-48-2 ATS (30.4%) since 2003, failing to cover by 3.5 ppg. When those teams also average north of 28 ppg, the results are even poorer at 8-31-2 (20.5%) ATS.
I'd bet the Bills at +2.5 or higher, but wait to see if a 3 comes.
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Buccaneers vs. Chargers Prediction
Chargers -2.5 (+100)
To me, the Bucs are the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, they've won three straight to take over first place in the NFC South, but take a look at who Tampa Bay has played over that stretch:
- Panthers (in OT; should've lost)
- Giants (with Tommy DeVito)
- Raiders (with Aidan O'Connell and Desmond Ridder)
Not exactly a murderer's row. In fact, go back to their past five victories and you can add in the Saints with Spencer Rattler and an Eagles team playing without AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson. Color me not impressed.
Their two most impressive wins came in the first two weeks of the season against Washington (in Jayden Daniels' first career start, which came on the road) and in Detroit in a game where the Lions held a 463-216 yardage edge.
Reality is coming soon for Tampa Bay and so are the mistakes.
On the season, Baker Mayfield has 28 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions, but he actually has more Turnover Worthy Plays (20) than Big Time Throws (16), per PFF. Tampa Bay has also only lost five of its 21 fumbles while benefiting from opponents only connecting on 24-of-34 field goal attempts. There's a very good chance the Chargers win the turnover battle, which more often than not will decide these competitive matchups, especially when you consider that Justin Herbert never turns the ball over.
On the season, Herbert has thrown 14 touchdowns with just one interception to go along with a superb 26-11 BTT-TWP rate. He's also had to deal with offensive line and wide receiver injuries throughout the season, which won't be the case on Sunday with a fully intact offensive line and the likely return of stud rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey, the engine of the offense. And it's not a small sample size for Herbert, who owns the second-lowest career interception rate (1.5%) among all qualified quarterbacks in NFL history, trailing only Aaron Rodgers and Jacoby Brissett, who are each tied at 1.4%.
From a matchup perspective, the Bucs play zone at the second-highest rate in the league (84%) — just below the Colts (86%). That spells doom against Herbert and this Chargers offense, which have both paced the league in terms of EPA against the zone. While Herbert has picked apart opposing zones all season, he's been rather pedestrian against man coverage in part due to his receivers' ability to gain separation outside of McConkey.
Things should be even easier for Herbert considering how beat up Tampa is in the back end of its secondary at safety with the most notable injury being that of Antoine Winfield — the All-Pro who will miss Sunday's contest. I'm sure Todd Bowles will continue to ramp up the blitz, but Herbert can manage that as well as any quarterback, especially since he has arguably the best tackle tandem in the league at the moment.
Also, the Tampa offense likely has some regression coming in the red zone, where it has thrived all season. Converting trips inside the 20 into touchdowns will be much more difficult against the league's best defense in that department. The Chargers do a tremendous job of shrinking the field even more in the red zone under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who also uses one of the league's highest rates of zone coverage, which should ultimately should force Mayfield into one or two of those overdue mistakes.
Lastly, the Bucs might be without Bucky Irving, which would be a massive loss not only for their running game but also out of the backfield as a pass catcher. On the season, only Irving and Tank Bigsby are averaging over four yards after contact among the 33 backs with at least 100 carries. And he's arguably been even better catching the ball out of the backfield as PFF's highest-graded running back in terms of receiving. To date, he's caught 36-of-37 targets with a superb 1.76 yards per route run (only David Montgomery averages more). It's also worth noting that Mike Evans didn't practice for a second straight day with his lingering hamstring issue. While I expect him to suit up, it's certainly worth mentioning.
Speaking of injuries, my one primary concern with the Chargers is the health of Herbert, who is dealing with a few bumps and bruises. While I expect him to play, will those injuries limit him in any fashion? That's difficult to answer, but I'm willing to take the risk in a game I believe should be over a field goal.
Trending: As a favorite, Jim Harbaugh has gone 38-21 ATS (64.4%) as an NFL head coach, covering by over a field goal per game. That includes an 8-1 ATS mark this season with the Chargers. He's also a sparkling 26-9 ATS (74.3%) overall as a favorite of less than a touchdown, covering by 6.6 points per game.
The pick here is Chargers -2.5 (-125 or better).
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