NFL Picks | Week 12
Every week for my NFL picks, I will identify my favorite spread and total of the week to bet. For my NFL Week 12 picks, I've targeted Steelers vs. Bengals and Bills vs. Eagles. For those who follow our Luck Rankings, my pick against the spread will not be a surprise. Pick on a bet in the table below to navigate this post.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Steelers vs. Bengals
We barely won by fading the Steelers last week. They lost 13-10 to the Browns, but the Expected Score that fuels our NFL Luck Rankings had the final result closer to a 12-point Steelers loss. Pittsburgh is still the luckiest team in the NFL, according to the Luck Rankings, and a team I’m interested in fading.
Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada is gone. Pittsburgh will likely see a long-term benefit from that, but it’s unlikely to be some quick fix.
Bet Steelers vs. Bengals with the latest BetMGM bonus code.
The main reason that Pittsburgh is a road favorite is because of Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. It’s a huge drop-off from him to Jake Browning, about six points against the spread according to my numbers. The lookahead line was Bengals -6, so that means this should be closer to a pick’em.
That line movement is a slight overreaction to Burrow’s injury. We have to remember that he hasn’t been 100% all season. It wasn’t until after the Bengals’ Week 7 bye that burrow started really thriving and looking over his training-camp calf injury.
The Bengals have also faced the second-toughest schedule in the NFL so far this season, so I think this is a potentially underrated team given how poorly Burrow started the season.
This is Browning’s first start. He’s looked like an average backup QB in the preseason over the past couple seasons. He didn’t have Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon, among others, to lean on in those games, though. Browning also has some rushing upside to help overcome some of his inefficiencies as a passer.
I think this should be closer to a pick’em and that the Bengals get the upset at home here.
Pick: Bengals +2.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Eagles
This game has a high total because two potent offenses are facing off, but the defenses are underrated at the moment.
Buffalo’s defense has been up and down all season and ranks 15th in DVOA. It’s been much better lately, though.
Deadline acquisition CB Rasul Douglas has been one of the best at his position this season, and the Bills run defense has improved a ton since Week 7 because of the emergence of LB Tyrel Dodson. He’s been one of the best linebackers in the NFL since then.
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
The Bills were allowing the second-highest yards-per-carry average from Weeks 1-7. Since Dodson became a full-time player in Week 8, they’re allowing the third-best rate in the NFL.
The main weakness for the Bills defense has been covering opposing tight ends, but Dallas Goedert is out and Jack Stoll is one of the least-efficient TEs in the league.
The Eagles have been more of a pass-funnel defense this year, ranking fifth in DVOA against the run but 19th against the pass. The numbers against their pass D are a bit inflated since they’ve faced an average of more than 40 pass attempts per game due to their opponents playing from behind most games.
Philadelphia does have the fourth-lowest yards per attempts allowed against the pass when the game is within one score, so it should be much better in what should be a close, back-and-forth game.
Also helping this pick is the fact that Shawn Hochuli will be the referee. He's been the 4th most profitable ref towards the under since 2020, going 34-21-2 (62%).
