Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) on my betting card for every Sunday slate. This week, one is for Sunday night.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 14-21-1
- Overall: 51-38-1
If you're looking to bet on some ugly underdogs this week, you've come to the right place. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 14 picks against the spread.
NFL Picks: Week 14
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Saints vs. Giants Prediction
Giants +5 (to +4.5)
Who wants to bet the Giants?
Anybody? No? Just me?
I might be on an island, but I can't get to this number — I think it should be closer to a field goal.
On the surface, New York does benefit from extra rest and preparation after playing on Thanksgiving, while the Saints will be on normal rest as a dome team outdoors in December following a loss that effectively ended their season.
Are the Giants a bad football team? Absolutely. They also have injuries up front on defense with the biggest name being Dexter Lawrence, who will be sorely missed along the defensive line.
However, I believe we've hit the bottom of the market after seven straight non-covers. I'm not sure this version of the Saints should be favored by five over any team at the moment on the road.
Some have suggested the Giants have quit, but I don't buy into that theory. This team is still trying hard under head coach Brian Daboll from what I've seen, and guys will continue to play for their future jobs.
They've also been extremely unlucky all season, so maybe there's some potential positive regression looming on the horizon.
Not only has New York suffered six one-possession losses (seven if you count the Bengals, who broke a run in the final minute to win by 10), but it owns the lowest red-zone TD rate (42%) and has gone an NFL-record 11 straight games without an interception
An interception is eventually coming and this might be the perfect week against Derek Carr, especially since the Giants are still more than capable of generating pass rush off the edge.
While the Giants secondary is not any good, they can hold their own against an injury-ravaged Saints wide receiver room. Additionally, no Taysom Hill will provide a huge relief to the Giants defense. Hill did so much for New Orleans and opened up so many things for others.
So, how will the Giants move the ball? On the ground by leaning on Tyrone Tracy Jr. against a horrendous Saints run defense that ranks 31st in Rush Success Rate.
Drew Lock didn't look great in Dallas, but he also found out very late that he would actually start. He now has a game under his belt and over a week to work with the offense.
And it's not like he'll face a vaunted pass rush (the Saints are bottom 10 in pressure rate) or elite secondary on Sunday. Plus, he's better than Tommy DeVito, who I would not back at this price.
Give me the points in a game where those should come at a premium.
Trending: Derek Carr is 6-19-2 ATS (24%) as a road favorite, failing to cover by over eight points per game on average. No quarterback has been less profitable in this spot over the past 25 seasons.
Play to +4.5
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Bills vs. Rams Prediction
Rams +4.5 (to +3.5)
Similar to earlier this year before a two-game road losing streak, this looks like the peak of the market on the Bills.
All of the signals are there with Josh Allen MVP and Bills Super Bowl talk. This is essentially the same price they laid on the road against the Joe Flacco-led Colts, who I have rated a few points worse than the Rams.
This is also a poor situational spot with Buffalo traveling across the country after clinching the division (earliest in 15 seasons) with a highly anticipated game with the Lions on deck. Meanwhile, the Rams are fighting for their playoff life, so I'd expect a max effort here.
There are also things I like from a matchup perspective on both sides of the ball.
The Bills have a zone-heavy defense that has struggled a bit in coverage if you remove turnovers, which they've lived off of. More on that later.
With a fully healthy supporting cast, Matthew Stafford thrives against zone coverage. Plus, I expect the offensive line to continue trending up with more continuity after adding a few starters back over the past few weeks. They've also seemingly solved their early season red-zone issues over the past month.
Speaking of zone coverage, the Rams also play an abundance of it on the defensive side of the ball. That's exactly what you want to do against Allen, who chews up man coverage (18 of his 20 touchdowns have come against man) due to his mobility.
Allen may also have a turnover or two coming, especially if the Rams can generate pressure, which they can do at one of the league's highest rates.
Last year, there was too much talk surrounding Allen's interceptions. He finished the season with 33 TDs to 18 INTs. That ratio has improved drastically this year (20:5) but his BTT-TWP rate is basically the same:
- 6.2% BTT to 3.0% TWP rate last year
- 6.8% BTT to -3.0% TWP this year
Buffalo has been a bit fortunate overall this season.
It beat up on a hampered 49ers team last week in ideal conditions, but the Bills also lead the league with a +17 turnover margin. They've also converted 86% of their fourth-down conversion attempts, while their opponents have gone just 10-for-24 (41%). There's some potential looming regression coming around the corner.
Ultimately, this is a good spot and matchup for the Rams, who I think can get Kyren Williams going on the ground to set up Stafford so he can carve up this Bills' zone off playaction to ultimately keep up with Allen and company.
A lot of what drives short-term variance in the NFL is success and lack thereof on third downs. Over the past three weeks, the Bills are at a league-leading 53%, which would rank as the best in the league this season.
Meanwhile, the Rams have converted a paltry 24%, which is the worst in the NFL, and would rank as such for the full season by a wide margin. Don’t be surprised if the late-down variance swings in the way of L.A. on Sunday.
Trending: Sean McVay usually has his teams peaking at the end of the season. He has gone 22-10-1 ATS (68.8%) in the month of December, covering by an average margin of 3.5 points per game.
Play to +3.5
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Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs -3.5 (to -4)
I can't believe I'm about to say this out loud, but I believe we've hit the bottom of the market on the Chiefs after six straight non-covers.
There's no doubt Kansas City has been extremely lucky this season with countless one-possession wins (some in truly bizarre fashion), but I can say the same thing for the Chargers, who aren't too far behind the Chiefs in our Luck rankings.
Look no further than last week against Atlanta, which finished with a 97% postgame win expectancy against L.A.
In that game, the Chargers couldn't do anything on offense. The loss of J.K. Dobbins has demolished the rushing attack and the potential loss (or limitations) of an injured Ladd McConkey would do the same to the passing attack, especially in this particular matchup against a man-heavy Steve Spagnuolo defense.
If McConkey can't go, that would serve as a devastating blow to the offense, as he's their only man beater. If you look at yards per route and yards per target, only Justin Jefferson has excelled more against man coverage in 2024.
The Chiefs secondary has major issues right now without Jaylen Watson, but the Chargers are not a team that can take full advantage, especially with a less than 100% McConkey.
Kansas City should also have success generating pressure up the middle with Chris Jones and company against Justin Herbert, whose numbers vs. man coverage are exponentially worse than vs. zone this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers defense is well-schemed under coordinator Jesse Minter, but I do believe they come into this divisional showdown overrated.
Keep in mind, the Chargers have benefited from one of the league's easiest schedules to date. In fact, their lone victory over a team with a wining record came against the Broncos. Running backs have had success against this stop unit, which a healthy Isiah Pacheco can exploit.
The Chargers also run an abundance of zone coverage on the back end, which generally isn't a great idea against Patrick Mahomes, who I believe is starting to trend upward. Since the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, he has completed 69% of his passes with 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
The biggest problem with the offense has been at left tackle, as the pressure off the edge has cratered way too many drives. Things got so bad last week that Kansas City had to kick left guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle mid-game.
Well, that could change this week with DJ Humphries likely to make his season debut on Mahomes' blindside. It's hard to overstate how much just competent play at left tackle would do for this offense. Plus, it's not like the Chargers generate pressure at a high rate.
Additionally, this is not a great situational spot for the Chargers, who will play their second straight road game after playing in Atlanta on a short week. Meanwhile, the Chiefs get to stay home with extended rest/prep time following a victory over the Raiders on Black Friday.
I get that Herbert wasn't 100% healthy, but the Chiefs were favored by a touchdown in Los Angeles. Now, we get to lay 3.5/4 at home in primetime against a Chargers team that still isn't 100% healthy on defense and is dealing with a pair of massive injuries on offense. It's also a favorable matchup for Kansas City on both sides of the ball.
I hate laying points with this Chiefs team, but it's not like this is a massive hurdle to clear.
Trending: Patrick Mahomes is a stunning 34-5 SU against the AFC West in his career.
Play to -4
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