Just like last season, every week during the 2024 season, I'll be sharing my favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) and my betting card for every Sunday slate. For reference, here are my season-long records in this file.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 3-6
- Overall: 40-23 (63.5%)
For my NFL Week 4 predictions, I'm targeting two teams in divisional matchups in the early afternoon slot followed by a pick in the highly-anticipated primetime showdown in Charm City.
Here are my expert NFL picks for Sunday, as well as the latest NFL Week 4 odds.
Stuckey's NFL Picks Week 4
- Falcons (-2.5) vs. Saints
- Jaguars (+7) vs. Texans
- Ravens (-2.5) vs. Bills
Simply put, I think the Falcons should be a field-goal favorite here. I did have my concerns about backing Atlanta this week after losing two starting offensive linemen that probably cost them the win (plus no help from the officials) against Kansas City. However, I'm not as worried about those two losses in this particular matchup. New Orleans has a top-10 defense, but it doesn't feature an overwhelming front. The Saints will also be without stud middle linebacker Demario Davis.
Additionally, the Saints probably have a worse injury situation heading into this divisional matchup. Not only will they be without their star center Eric McCoy, but guard Cesar Ruiz will also be out. That leaves the interior in complete disarray with Lucas Patrick likely sliding over to center again (where he has historically struggled) with two very poor guards in Nick Saldiveri and Oli Udoh, who had a 0.7 pass block grade last week, per PFF.
The two tackle spots were also a major question coming into the season with rookie Taliese Fuaga sliding over to left tackle (played right tackle in college) and Trevor Penning trying to save his career by moving over to right tackle. Those two had a great start to the season but came crashing back down to earth last week against the Eagles, who provided a blueprint of sorts to slow down this new Klint Kubiak offense, which I'm sure Atlanta is fully aware of. With zero OL starters from last year projected to start on Sunday, the situation is flammable in front of Derek Carr, who has historically crumbled under pressure.
I also think the two Week 1 data points are suppressing Atlanta's value and inflating the Saints. While New Orleans dominated the Carolina JV team with Bryce Young still at the helm, Atlanta had to face the ferocious Pittsburgh defense with Kirk Cousins seeing his first live game action since suffering a season-ending injury in 2023. The play-calling was also extremely predictable (which has since changed) and it wasn't too surprising that Cousins performed below expectations in his first start.
Let's just say Atlanta gets that obvious PI call against the Chiefs and wins that game. Well, then, this line would certainly be at least 3. The Falcons have also played a much tougher schedule and performed better against the one common opponent: Philadelphia.
Atlanta won at Philadelphia, while the Saints lost at home to a much more injured Eagles squad and were absolutely dominated statistically (outgained 460-219). This Falcons offense should do enough at home to get back to .500.
I'd need Falcons -2.5 to play this.
Trending: Carr is 23-35-2 ATS (38.7%) on the road since 2017, including 0-2 in Atlanta. That makes him the least profitable road QB ATS over that span among 135 quarterbacks. For reference, he's gone 26-26-1 ATS at home during that period.
I didn't want to do this, but had to at 7. The 0-3 Jaguars looked putrid last week in Buffalo, but it was a bad matchup on paper, especially since new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen refused to completely abandon man coverage (which is always a bad idea against Josh Allen) despite being down three corners. Trevor Lawrence also looked lost throughout the blowout loss.
That performance certainly warranted a Jacksonville downgrade, especially considering all of the current defensive injuries. However, did the Texans also not look horrendous in a blowout loss on the road — and as a favorite? Both teams played complete duds, so I'm not sure why the market aggressively adjusted in one direction. Even if you go back to the first two games of the season, the Jags should've beat the Dolphins and lost to the Browns in a coin flip game statistically. Meanwhile, the Texans pulled out a pair of close wins (and non-covers) against a pair of struggling teams in Indianapolis and Chicago.
Generally speaking, teams are never as bad or as good as they look during outlier performances. It's why teams that have lost by 35-plus the prior week have fared so well historically against the spread. I mean who wants to back a team that just lost 47-10 in primetime? Maybe I'm the only asshole, but I just couldn't get to this number. And it's not like we haven't seen the Jaguars rebound from slow starts with Trevor Lawrence in the past. In 2022, after starting 2-6, they made it to the divisional round of the playoffs where they lost by 7 to Kansas City.
This team is much more deeply flawed than that version, but it's not like the Texans are playing pristine football right now. They've yet to cover a spread and lead the league in percentage of drives with a negative play that end in a punt. That's pretty staggering for an offense led by CJ Stroud with all of that surrounding talent. I think Stroud will be perfectly fine this season, but he's seemingly going through a bit of a sophomore slump. Additionally, this Texans team has historically struggled in the favorite role under this staff, which tends to get too conservative at all of the wrong times.
On the surface, the spot isn't ideal with Jacksonville fueling up for a second straight road game on a short week, but at least it's a divisional game (reduced home-field advantage) against an opponent they have plenty of familiarity with. Historically, road divisional dogs have fared well in this price range, but I did need at least a 7 to get involved.
Trending: Coming off a loss by 35 or more points, underdogs of four-plus points have gone 50-19-2 ATS (73%) since 2003.
This is my favorite bet of Week 4.
It's a classic John Harbaugh spot at home in primetime in need of a win against an undefeated team. I've seen this movie before. It also doesn't hurt that the Bills are hitting the road on a short week.
I personally played the Ravensmoneyline at -130 and will be adding some at -2.5. Let's just hope Josh Allen isn't on one, as he's certainly capable of carrying his team to a victory against anybody on any given night (as is Lamar). It should be a great one.
I'll have more on this game on my write-up for the game. Stay tuned to the Action App for that.
Trending: As a favorite of less than 3 or an underdog, Lamar Jackson has gone 17-2 ATS (89.5%) in the regular season.
