PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL player prop picks of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app. Read below for his NFL player prop bet for Ravens vs Chiefs tonight.
We’ve made it. After 207 days, we finally get NFL football back in our lives.
Tonight, the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest of a three-peat in a rematch against the Baltimore Ravens.
For my favorite bet of this game, I’m keying in on a Ravens running back – but probably not the one you’re assuming. Fifth-year running back Justice Hill should once again serve in a receiving/third-down role for the Ravens.
The newly signed Derrick Henry will assume the bulk of the running-back carries, and the electric Keaton Mitchell is still on IR recovering from a torn ACL. With the latter off the field last season, Hill cleared this receiving yards line in eight of 10 games, including the playoffs.
In the first season of Todd Monken’s offensive scheme, Hill set career highs in receptions (28) and receiving yards (206) – eclipsing his total from the three previous seasons combined. Monken’s offense had quarterback Lamar Jackson throwing more to his running backs, with the position accruing both a 15% yardage and target share.
Given Henry’s age (30) and limited skill-set as a pass-catcher, Hill should assume the majority of those targets early on this season.
The Chiefs are coming off a season in which they ranked 21st in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA against running backs in the receiving game. They allowed 27.9 receiving yards per game to the position.
Tonight, I have Hill projected around 15 receiving yards, and would play this line up to over 10.5.
