Robert Woods Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (-125)
Colts vs. Texans | 1 p.m. ET
The new-look Texans offense was unleashed last weekend to underwhelming results. Amongst several newcomers was veteran receiver Robert Woods.
Despite Woods commanding 10 targets — which was second on the team behind Nico Collins — and pulling in a 19-yard catch, I’m fading Woods' longest reception line against the Texans.
The long catch last week only traveled eight air yards, with Woods picking up the remaining 11 thanks to some shoddy coverage. In fact, only one of Woods’ 10 targets traveled at least 15 air yards.
Woods isn’t much of a YAC threat, ranking 80th out of 102 qualified receivers last season at three yards after the catch per reception. Collins, Tank Dell and John Metchie are more likely to command the deeper looks, with Woods working the underneath routes.
Against the Colts, I expect the game to stay closer, which could allow the Texans to stay more balanced on offense. C.J. Stroud was forced to drop back a ridiculous 54 times in his NFL debut.
This is a line Woods stayed under in 13 of 17 games last season with Tennessee.
I expect the trend to start anew this week in Houston. I'd play this to Under 15.5.
Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Receptions (-113 | Play to -130)
Chargers vs. Titans | 1 p.m. ET
Coming off a game against the Dolphins in which he comfortably led the Chargers in targets (nine), receptions (six) and receiving yards (76), Keenan Allen finds himself in a great matchup against the Titans.
Tennessee is coming off a 2022 campaign in which it allowed the second-most receptions to wide receivers (14.5 per game). In Week 1 against the Saints, the Titans allowed 18 catches to New Orleans' three starting wideouts.
The Titans have a stout run defense, which was also on display against the Saints (New Orleans only averaged 2.6 yards per carry). With Austin Ekeler ruled out, not only will the Chargers be without their leading rusher, but Justin Herbert’s second-favorite passing target behind Allen.
New Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore designed his passing offense around Allen’s strengths, and I expect to see that in full force.
I have Allen projected at 11 targets and eight receptions.
