We got ourselves an AFC powerhouse matchup where the Buffalo Bills (3-0) take on the Baltimore Ravens (1-2).
For more expert analysis on Sunday Night Football tonight, check out Stuckey's Bills vs. Ravens Prediction and his pick against the spread.
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Let's get into it!
Bills vs. Ravens Player Prop: Mack Hollins
The Bills saw some of the most turnover in the league at the wide receiver position in the offseason with the loss Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis finding new homes.
It was a bit of a mystery how exactly this rotation would play out, but after three games, Mack Hollins actually leads the group, running routes at a 76% rate.
He's always been an underrated player who makes smart plays, and I certainly expect him to continue to get a ton of playing time as a result.
However, in all of his route runs, he's only seen a target on 6.3% of his routes.
The Bills are 3-0 and have rarely played while trailing (fourth lowest TOP while trailing), so we haven't seen the Bills offense be as aggressive as it could be when they're in a trailing game script. They enter tonight as 2.5-point underdogs, which means we could see the Bills offense be way more aggressive tonight.
I think that helps Hollins' outlook tonight as I sort of view him replacing the "Gabe Davis role."
This is a number he can absolutely clear with a single catch considering his aDot of 13.2, but I have him close to a 50/50 chance to get more than two catches here, which gives him a slight boost to clear this (which he surely will with two-plus catches most of the time).
I'm projecting the median closer to 17.5, with around a 61% chance that he clears 12.5.
Pick: Mack Hollins Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
| Receiving Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 12.5 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 13.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 14.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 15.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 16.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 17.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
