PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Let's dive right into his top NFL player prop pick for Broncos vs. Saints on Thursday Night Football.
NFL Player Prop Pick
- Bub Means Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (-110 at FanDuel, Playable to -125)
Bub Means Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (-110)
For the Week 7 installment of Thursday Night Football, we have the Saints and Broncos squaring off. New Orleans comes into this matchup ravaged by injuries on the offensive side of the ball and while that means backups will be seeing an uptick in field time, I still have my eye on a line that's over-inflated.
Bub Means came out of nowhere to pace the Saints in both targets and catches (8 and 5 respectively, both tied with Alvin Kamara) last week. Well, the rookie wideout will be thrust into the fire again this week, with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both ruled out.
Despite the elevated target rate, Means’ long catch went for 14 yards, and none of his targets traveled more than 14 air yards. Overall, his average depth of target was 8.9 yards.
I don’t want to extrapolate too much from a one game sample size, but one assumption I will make is that Means’ target volume (20% of rookie Spencer Rattler’s 40 throws), was the high-end of his range of outcomes. The Broncos are allowing both the seventh-lowest target share to receivers (53%) and targets per game (17).
Star cornerback Patrick Surtain II will miss this game for Denver, but this will still be a tough spot for Rattler. The Broncos blitz at the league’s highest rate, and the first-year quarterback struggled mightily last week against the blitz (6-for-18 for 39 yards, per Pro Football Focus).
Last week, the Bucs dialed up the pressure in the second half against Rattler, and Means didn't catch a pass after halftime.
In general, there is always hype around rookies coming off strong first impressions. However, I don’t anticipate Means sustaining the target volume from last week and have his longest reception projected at 14 yards.
