PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season, and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
So, let's get right into his top two NFL player prop picks for Sunday's slate of Week 6 matchups, featuring picks for Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels.
NFL Player Prop Picks
- Drake Maye Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (+120, bet365)
- Jayden Daniels Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (+100, DraftKings)
The big news in Foxborough today is that Drake Maye will be making his first start at quarterback for the Patriots. The third-overall pick of the 2024 draft will have a tall task in his debut against the stingy defense of the Houston Texans.
While I’m not bullish on Maye’s overall production today, the one area I do see some opportunity is on the ground. In very limited preseason and regular season snaps, Maye has showcased his scrambling ability.
The former North Carolina Tar Heel averaged 8.7 rush attempts per game (sacks excluded) over his two seasons as a starter. While that was a completely different offense than what he’ll be running for the Patriots, part of the allure with Maye as a prospect was his athletic prowess and ability to extend plays.
Today, he’ll be on the run plenty. The Texans are generating pressure on the quarterback at the 8th-highest rate. And the Patriots offensive line has allowed pressure on their signal caller (primarily Jacoby Brissett) at the league’s highest rate.
It’s speculative, of course, but at plus-odds, I see plenty of value here. I have Maye projected for six rush attempts today.
Another rookie quarterback on his rush attempts line – however, with Daniels, we have some data.
Daniels has cleared this line in four of his five games so far, with the one miss coming in a blowout win against the Cardinals.
Today might be the toughest test of Daniels’ young career, as the Commanders make the short trip to Baltimore to square off against the Ravens. With Washington coming in as a 6.5-point underdog, there’s an emerging trend I’m liking for this prop today.
When the Commanders have been tied or trailing, Daniels has run the ball on 36 of 181 plays (20%). When Washington has the lead, that rate drops to 15% (21 of 142).
With running back Brian Robinson Jr. ruled out, we could also see some more scripted plays for Daniels on the ground as well.
I have the impressive rookie projected at 11 attempts today.
