PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season, and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
So, let's get right into his top two NFL player prop picks for Sunday's slate of Week 4 matchups.
NFL Player Prop Picks
- Garrett Wilson Longest Reception Under 21.5 Yards (-110, bet365)
- Brian Thomas Jr. Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-121, Caesars)
This bet comes down to the individual matchup that Garrett Wilson will face today. Patrick Surtain II has established himself as one of the best cover corners, and will shadow Wilson on the perimeter today.
Surtain has already locked down some of the NFL’s premier deep threats: Mike Evans (long reception of 9 yards), George Pickens (16), and DK Metcalf (9).
Twenty-four of Wilson’s 26 targets have traveled less than 20 air yards. The Ohio State product only has converted one of his 15 catches to a long reception of more than 22-yards.
I don’t see Aaron Rodgers force-feeding his number one receiver targets today; he’ll likely lean on the likes of Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, and his running backs.
I have Wilson’s longest reception projected closer to 17 yards today.
Brian Thomas Jr. comes into the Jaguars Week 4 matchup as the team's leading receiver at 189 yards, and tied with Christian Kirk for the team lead in targets at 17 apiece.
The first-round pick has cleared this line in each game thus far, and against the Texans, he should find himself in a spot for some sneaky volume.
The Texans defense is stingy against the pass (8th in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA), but even tougher against the run (2nd). The Jaguars have struggled to establish their ground game this season, and come into this game as 5.5-point underdogs.
And with the Jaguars defense struggling, I do foresee Jacksonville needing to move the ball more through the air. Tight-end Evan Engram remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, and receiver Gabe Davis could be limited with his shoulder ailment.
I have Thomas projected to see seven targets today. The Texans have allowed 9.1 yards per target to receivers this season (in line with last season’s 9.4) – Thomas should be able to clear 50 receiving yards with no issue.
