PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Let's dive right into his top two NFL player prop picks for tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Jets, featuring picks for Dorian Williams and Garrett Wilson.
NFL Player Prop Picks
- Dorian Williams Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (+100, bet365)
- Garrett Wilson Longest Reception — Under 21.5 Yards (-123, Caesars)
Dorian Williams Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (+100)
There was a lot of concern in Buffalo when star linebacker Matt Milano tore his biceps back in August. However, the play of his replacement, Dorian Williams, has kept the Bills atop the defensive leaderboards early this season.
The second-year product from Tulane has cleared this line in each of his five games so far and is six for six to the over in his young career when starting. He’s been dominant against the run, which has led to his team-leading 54 tackles through five games.
The Jets are middle-of-the-road when it comes to linebacker tackles allowed: per Pro Football Focus, at 16.8 allowed, the Jets rank 16th.
However, I do see this as a strong matchup for Williams to produce. The Bills employ a two-high safety look at the fourth highest rate. Aaron Rodgers is anything but averse to checking down with throws to his running backs and tight-ends – Williams should be involved in coverages against both.
And with the Jets flipping to Todd Downing as the play-caller this week, they have indicated they’re inclined to get the run game going.
No matter the game script, I do see edges for Williams to clear this line with ease. I have the former third-round pick reaching double-digit tackles tonight. Play this to -125.
Garrett Wilson Longest Reception: Under 21.5 Yards (-123)
The Jets' offense has yet to fire on all cylinders, and part of the issue has been the inconsistent connection between their star wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Wilson has remained under this line in three of five games thus far. On passes traveling at least 20 air yards, Wilson has only reeled on one of six targets. And even the intermediate throws (passes between 10 and 19 air yards) have yielded only three catches on eleven targets.
Overall, Wilson’s average depth of target is a career-low 8.3 yards. And despite seeing a ridiculous 23 targets last game, there is reason for optimism on the under.
Firstly, new Jets play-caller Todd Downing has insisted on establishing the Jets dormant running game. And with the game-time weather forecast calling for gusty winds, we might see a reduced amount of down-field throws.
And secondly. The Bills are well-equipped to defend Wilson. Buffalo ranks 6th in DVOA against opposing WR1 and second against deep passes (both per FTN Fantasy). In fact, the Bills have only allowed four passes to wide receivers of at least 20 yards all season.
With all of the uncertainty around this Jets team, and coupling that with the tough defensive matchup, I love the under on Wilson’s longest reception tonight, and you can play it down to 20.5.
