We have you covered with nine NFL player props for Week 10 on Sunday afternoon.
Our staff of betting experts' picks start in Germany, where we're backing a breakout running back in Giants vs. Panthers in Munich. From there, we have eight player props for the 1 p.m. ET slate on Sunday.
Let's dig into our NFL props for this week's Sunday slate.
NFL Player Prop Picks
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Giants vs. Panthers
Tyrone Tracy
Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I hit this last week, though my alt-line bets came up a bit short. Tyrone Tracy rumbled for 50 yards on 10 carries in the 1st half, but the Giants fell behind and abandoned the run against the Commanders.
Tracy finished with 16 carries compared to seven for Devin Singletary. The rookie is the clear lead back for New York right now, having handled 35 of 42 running back carries with Singletary sidelined in Weeks 5-6. He's out-carried Singletary 42 to 14 in the three games since the veteran returned.
Carolina has allowed the most rushing yards per game and have ceded the most running back carries per game, probably because most teams that play them are beating them and looking to eat the clock. They've allowed the eighth-highest yards per carry to RBs.
This is technically a home game for Carolina, but it's actually being played in Germany. The Giants are solid 6.5-point favorites, so it should be a positive game script for Tracy.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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Steelers vs. Commanders
George Pickens
Anytime TD Scorer (+200)
George Pickens has looked great with Russell Wilson under center, and he's been targeted heavily by Wilson in the red zone the last two games (four targets on just 11 pass attempts). He had a touchdown vs. the Jets and barely missed another one last week.
Pickens can score from anywhere on the field and while Wilson may be past his prime, he's still a good deep-ball threat at this point in his career. That should enable Pickens to continue thriving.
Pickens gets a great matchup here against a Commanders secondary that ranks near the bottom of the league vs. opposing WR1s this season and has allowed 10 TDs to opposing receivers. I have his true odds to score around +150, making this a great bet.
Pick: George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+200)
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Bills vs. Colts
Khalil Shakir
Over 5.5 Receptions (-130)
By Sam Farley
We're going to take the Bills' Khalil Shakir to continue to see volume in this offense. He's had six or more receptions in four of eight games this season and crucially in each of the past three as his role has continued to grow.
In the past three weeks, Shakir has seen 24 targets and with his fellow receivers banged up, we're likely to see continued volume.
I bet this earlier in the week at +110, so the great value is gone. I'd still recommend it, though.
Pick: Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions (-130)
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49ers vs. Buccaneers
Cade Otton
Anytime TD Scorer (+175)
Cade Otton has been used heavily in the red zone this season, with 12 red-zone targets and five in the last two games. It's very clear that without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton is going to be the go-to guy for Baker Mayfield.
Ottonhas a massive 10 targets in each of the last three games and has four touchdowns in the Bucs' last four games, despite having Godwin and Evans on the field for most of that time.
This week, he gets a matchup against a 49ers defense that struggles to defend tight ends more than receivers. With the total sitting at 50 and a 6.5-point spread, Tampa Bay will likely be forced to throw the ball a lot more than usual.
I have the true odds on Otton scoring at around +135, making this a great bet.
Pick: Cade Otton Anytime TD Scorer (+175)
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49ers vs. Buccaneers
George Kittle
Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
George Kittle has eclipsed 60 yards receiving in four of seven games this season, and it's clear his role has became even more vital since the loss of Brandon Aiyuk to injury.
Brock Purdy is featuring Kittle in the passing game, and I do not expect that to change, even if/when Christian McCaffrey returns. Kittle has been targeted eight times per game over his last four games, and he has at least 64 receiving yards in every game this season in which he's gotten seven or more targets.
The Tampa Bay defense has surrendered more than 275 pass yards per game, the third most in the NFL. The Buccaneers have also allowed opposing passers to complete 68.5% of their attempts, and, more importantly, have struggled to defend opposing tight ends.
Last week, Tampa was torched by Travis Kelce to the tune of 14 receptions and 100 yards. The week prior, Kyle Pitts had the best game of his career against this defense. Pitts posted 88 and 91 receiving yards in the Falcons' two matchups this season against Tampa Bay.
In Week 7, Ravens tight ends were targeted nine times, totaling 72 yards and two touchdowns. Even going back to Week 6, the combo of Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau of the Saints combined for 102 yards receiving on just five targets against Tampa Bay.
Another big game for Kittle should be on the docket this week, and I'd play this prop up to 63.5 receiving yards.
Pick: George Kittle Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Falcons vs. Saints
Foster Moreau
Anytime TD Scorer (+850)
By Sam Farley
There's been so much going on in New Orleans this season that the chemistry between Foster Moreau and Derek Carr has gone under the radar. They know each other from their Raiders' days and while Moreau isn't a volume guy, he's somebody that Carr does target when it really matters in the red zone.
Moreausecond on the team behind Chris Olave in red-zone targets and in six games with Carr this season, he has scored three times, including last week against the Panthers. He's not a lock by any means but higher than 8-1 is far too high.
Pick: Foster Moreau Anytime TD Scorer (+850)
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Falcons vs. Saints
Bijan Robinson
Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Kyle Murray
Bijan Robinson is on a nice run of consistency with at least 86 rushing yards in three of his last four games.
Here, he's set up for success once again with the Falcons being favored against the Saints. I'd expect Atlanta to take an early lead and feed its RB1. The Saints are also very weak against the run, having allowed the third-most yards per carry to opposing running backs this season.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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Broncos vs. Chiefs
Javonte Williams
Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
There's a lot working against Javonte Williams this week. There was a lot working against him last week, and he stumbled to 42 yards on 12 carries. This is an even tougher matchup, and his workload might continue to slip.
Kansas City has the best run defense in the league, having held running backs to the fewest yards per carry and the fewest yards per game in the NFL. The Chiefs are second in both yards before contact and yards after contact per attempt and are also second in stuff rate. It's a brutal matchup.
Denver's backfield is as crowded as it's been since the short-lived Tyler Badie run. He led the team in carries out of nowhere in Week 3 and looked to be securing a larger role but got hurt in Week 4 and has been on the injured reserve since then. Williams maintained his lead-back status from there, but new challengers have emerged.
Jaleel McLaughlin has played more than 30% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, something he hadn't done since Week 5. Audric Estime also played a season-high 10% of the snaps last week, and Williams' 54% snap rate in Week 9 was his lowest since Week 3. He earned just half of the running back carries.
Estime largely played in garbage time, which could be a factor once again in this spot since Denver is on the road as a touchdown underdog against the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL.
Williams will need the Broncos to keep it close, have success against the best run defense in the league, and choose to prioritize him over the other backs. It just seems like there's a lot that needs to go right for him.
Pick: Javonte Williams Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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Patriots vs. Bears
Rome Odunze
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Kyle Murray
Rome Odunze has continued to see his role increase in this offense, especially since the Bears' bye week as he has accounted for 23% of the team's targets over the last two games.
Odunze has at least 40 receiving yards in four straight games with two of those games coming in at exactly 40, but he blew up last week with 104 yards against Arizona.
Now, the rookie gets a matchup against a Patriots defense that has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per reception to WRs. I'm happy to back the player with an expanding role in a good matchup.
Pick: Rome Odunze Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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