We have you covered with nine NFL player props for Week 11 on Sunday afternoon.
Our staff has props for Sunday's biggest games, starting with Ravens vs. Steelers at 1 p.m. ET and ending with the premier matchup of the week: Chiefs vs. Bills. We also have bets for Browns vs. Saints, Vikings vs. Titans, Jaguars vs. Lions and Falcons vs. Broncos this afternoon.
Let's dig into our NFL props for this week's Sunday slate.
NFL Player Prop Picks
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Ravens vs. Steelers
Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)
By Kyle Murray
I love this spot for Zay Flowers in what should be a competitive game against the Steelers.
Yes, Pittsburgh has a good defense, but Flowers matches up quite well against it. The Steelers have played Cover 3 at the third-highest rate in the NFL this season, and that's the scheme Flowers has been most effective against, ranking second in the NFL in targets per route run against Cover 3.
If there's a Ravens receiver to bet in this big game, it's Flowers.
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)
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Ravens vs. Steelers
George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
George Pickens has looked absolutely incredible with Russell Wilson at the helm, averaging 90 yards per game and two touchdowns in the three games that Wilson has started. He's been the go-to guy for Wilson and gets one of the best matchups possible here.
The Ravens aren't the same defense we've seen in the past, allowing by far the most passing yards per game while allowing the fewest rushing yards per game. The Steelers have run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league but are going to be forced to pass the ball early and often here.
The Ravens have been the worst defense in the league against opposing WR1s and have been absolutely crushed by receivers as a whole. Baltimore has allowed the most touchdowns in the NFL to opposing WRs (16) and close to 2,000 yards, which is 200 more than the next-closest team.
Everything lines up perfectly here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Pickens score more than once.
Pick: George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
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Browns vs. Saints
Cedric Tillman Anytime TD Scorer (+200)
By Sam Farley
The Browns are back from their bye, and we have another chance to see the Cedric Tillman/Jameis Winston connection.
In two games with Winston as the Browns' starting quarterback, we've seen Tillman average 10 targets, 87 receiving yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. We know Winston loves to air it out and given we're facing one of his former teams, we can be sure on him throwing enough to give Tillman the chance to find the end zone at big odds.
Pick: Cedric Tillman Anytime TD Scorer (+200)
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Vikings vs. Titans
Calvin Ridley Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, Calvin Ridley has 41 targets. Only two players (Malik Nabers and Travis Kelce) have more in that span. His 30.6% target share is behind just Nabers, CeeDee Lamb and Tee Higgins. Ridley has turned those targets into 23 catches for 342 receiving yards. No other Titans player has a target share above 13% since Hopkins left.
Wide receivers have excelled against Minnesota. The Vikings have allowed the second-most receptions and the third-most receiving yards on the second-most targets. Teams are chucking it against them as they're averaging the fourth-most pass attempts against per game.
Will Levis is bound to have some silly turnovers, but he actually played decently against the Chargers in his return. He seems to be a better option than Mason Rudolph right now. It's not a ringing endorsement, but it's something.
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Jaguars vs. Lions
Brian Thomas Jr. Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Mac Jones started for the Jaguars last week and the Jaguars offense unsurprisingly averaged an abysmal 3.3 yards per play and had just 17 minutes of time of possession. Jones averaged just 5.0 yards per attempt, and the offense in total generated 10 first downs. He was sacked on 12% of his dropbacks and threw two interceptions.
In case it wasn't obvious already, the Jaguars offense is broken.
The Vikings dominated time of possession against Jacksonville last week by running the ball 43 times. You can expect more of the same by the Lions this week. With that, Brian Thomas Jr. simply will not receive many chances to reach his yardage total needed to hit this over. Thomas has not had five targets in a game since Week 7, and he's still dealing with a chest injury.
Thomas has been held under this number in three of his last five games and should struggle again to sniff 50 yards against a Lions defense that's more vulnerable to slot receivers. Garbage time may the only savior for the rookie standout in this spot.
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Falcons vs. Broncos
Courtland Sutton Anytime TD Scorer (+210)
After a game in Week 7 where Courtland Sutton was just out there doing cardio, he has been fantastic in this offense, averaging 10 targets per game over the Broncos' last three games.
Sutton gets a great matchup here against the Falcons, who have been one of the worst teams in the league at defending WR1s this season and one of the worst pass defenses overall. Sutton has been the Broncos' go-to guy in the red zone this season with 13 targets, and five have come in the last 2 games.
I have Sutton at over a 40% chance of scoring, so this is one of my favorite bets of the week.
Pick: Courtland Sutton Anytime TD Scorer (+210)
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Chiefs vs. Bills
Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)
By Sam Farley
We're going back to the well on Khalil Shakir receptions again this week.
The Chiefs have a good defense, but sportsbooks don't seem to have quite noticed how integral Shakir has become to Buffalo's offense. The Bills' five-game winning streak has coincided with heavy usage for Shakir, who has caught 28 of his 33 targets in that span.
Pick: Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)
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Chiefs vs. Bills
Josh Allen Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)
By Kyle Murray
Yes, this is a difficult matchup against the Chiefs, who have a great defense, but these two teams matching up against one another always leads to fireworks.
Josh Allen has played the Chiefs five times in his career, and he has cleared this number in four of those games with 315 or more yards three times. The Chiefs have been good against the pass, but they're even better against the run, so this should lead to the Bills looking to pass often.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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