Welcome to our NFL player prop picks for Week 5's Sunday slate.
We have 10 picks from eight games, including two experts on the same player. That player is Amari Cooper, who has a juicy matchup this weekend against a vulnerable Commanders defense.
We have a prop for each side of the big Bills vs. Texans matchup in Houston, and we have a Joe Burrow under for what might be the best game of the day: Ravens at Bengals, a crucial matchup in the AFC North.
Dig into our NFL predictions for the Sunday slate below.
NFL Player Prop Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Browns vs. Commanders
Amari Cooper
Anytime TD Scorer (+200)
Amari Cooper hasn't been great this season due to the awful play of Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, but he has gotten better in the last two weeks. He scored two touchdowns in Week 3 and had a 80-yard score called back in Week 4.
This week, Cooper draws a matchup against the Commanders, whose defense has been absolutely crushed by the passing game this season. Washington ranks 30th in DVOA while allowing the sixth-most yards to opposing wide receivers and 10 touchdowns. The next closest team has allowed seven.
Cooper still has to deal with poor QB play, but his odds should really be around +170.
Pick: Amari Cooper Anytime TD Scorer (+200)
Browns vs. Commanders
Amari Cooper
Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Buy low on Cooper. Despite just 35 receiving yards last week, Cooper had an 80-yard touchdown taken away, just one week after his breakout performance (86 yards, two touchdowns) against the Giants.
Usage wise, you should not be worried about Cooper. He has been targeted 37 times through the opening four weeks — the sixth-most among WRs — and ranks inside the top five in total air yards.
While Watson has not been good at all, this is a great matchup against a Washington secondary that has been walked all over through four weeks. The Commanders rank 31st in DVOA to the WR1 position. We’ve seen Malik Nabers (127 yards, TD), Ja’Marr Chase (118 yards, two touchdowns) and Mike Evans (61 yards, two touchdowns) to have big games, and Cooper should be no different.
Washington games have quickly turned into shootouts and Cooper’s high target rate (27%) should lead to plenty of production on the outside. This is a ladder-able opportunity as we’ve seen plenty of top receivers have field days against the Commanders. Cooper should be no different.
Pick: Amari Cooper Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Bills vs. Texans
Nico Collins
Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Nico Collins has been absolutely incredible this season, hitting the over on this number in each of the first four games of the season. He's averaging 120 receiving yards per game and leads the NFL in total receiving yards.
This week, Collins draws a matchup against the Bills in what should be a close, high-scoring game, with a one-point spread and 47.5 total.
Collins should be in for at least 10 targets, and I'm hitting the ladder on his receiving yards.
Pick: Nico Collins Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bills vs. Texans
Dalton Kincaid
Anytime TD Scorer (+210)
By Sam Farley
With Stefon Diggs leaving the Bills for Sunday's opponents, the Texans, it was expected that Dalton Kincaid would step up and become a key pass catcher for the team. Over the first few weeks, he hasn't been hugely involved, but we saw a huge increase in his usage last week. Kincaid ran routes on 22 of 37 snaps and had a season-high seven targets, which also led the team.
Kincaid a key part of this offense and worth backing to score at anything above +200.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD Scorer (+210)
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson
Anytime TD Scorer (+140)
There has been some talk about giving Antonio Gibson more carries, but I don't think that will be the case this week. Even if it is, it won't affect Rhamondre Stevenson's red zone usage.
The Patriots face the Dolphins, who have struggled to get anything going on offensively without Tua Tagovailoa. Miami should give New England decent field position all game if Tyler Huntley performs like he did in Week 4 on Monday night.
Stevenson has been the Patriots' go-to guy in the red zone this season with 11 rushing attempts inside the 20, and he also leads the team in red-zone targets with five.
I have Stevenson at over a 50% chance of scoring, making this a great bet.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD Scorer (+140)
Panthers vs. Bears
Xavier Legette
Anytime TD Scorer (+275)
By Sam Farley
The Panthers' offense has looked hugely improved with Andy Dalton at QB. The main benefactor has been Diontae Johnson, but he's been limited in practice ahead of Sunday's game.
Step forward, Xavier Legette. The first-round rookie shined without Adam Thielen last week with six receptions on 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown.
Legette could be in line for even more work, with or without Johnson, and offers value at big odds to score.
Pick: Xavier Legette Anytime TD Scorer (+275)
Ravens vs. Bengals
Joe Burrow
Under 24.5 Completions (-117)
Caesars is asleep at the wheel and has this line one completion or 20 cents higher than other books, as of Friday. Joe Burrow has hit the over at this number in just one of the first four games this season, and that was against the Commanders in a game that Cincinnati didn't punt.
The Bengals will now face the Ravens, who have one of the best defenses in the league this season and run the ball at a massive clip with the sixth-most time of possession this season. That more more time with Burrow on the sidelines this week.
I have Burrow projected for around 22 completions, making this a great bet.
Pick: Joe Burrow Under 24.5 Completions (-117)
Raiders vs. Broncos
Tre Tucker
Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Tre Tucker continues to be under-appreciated in the NFL. While Davante Adams is making business decisions of his own, Tucker has solidified himself as the Raiders' WR2.
In the two weeks Adams has been out, Tucker has combined for 137 yards on 12 receptions (15 targets). He has big-play ability to hit this prop in one go but has also operated as a gadget receiver in the run game. He had 10 carries in 2023 and took home a 3-yard rushing touchdown against the Browns last week.
As long as Gardner Minshew is under center, Vegas should continue to be pass-heavy on offense. The Raiders have thrown the ball 64% of the time this season and enter as slight underdogs in Denver with sharp money pouring in on the Broncos.
While Denver ranks as a top-10 pass defense DVOA, most of that is because of Pat Surtain. Tucker should be able to avoid him mostly as the second receiver behind Jakobi Meyers, and he also lines up in the slot about one-quarter of the time. Denver is 18th in DVOA to the WR2 position and 13th out of the slot.
My colleague Sean Koerner has Tucker projected closer to 47.1 yards with a mean of 52, an +8.3% edge to the over. I'll continue to buy low on Tucker, who has slowly emerged over the last two weeks.
Pick: Tre Tucker Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Giants vs. Seahawks
Geno Smith
Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-110)
The Seahawks are averaging three offensive touchdowns per game this season, the seventh-most in the NFL. We heard all offseason that new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb would open up the offense, and that has certainly come to fruition. The Seahawks are second in the NFL in pass rate and first in the NFL in pass rate over expectation.
Seattle isn't afraid to air it out, even when playing with a lead. Over the last three games, Geno Smith has attempted 56, 34 and 44 passes. He has arguably the best trio of wide receivers in the NFL (DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett) and an exploitable matchup at home against the Giants, who are 20th in EPA against the pass this season.
The Seahawks should have no problem putting up points this week. With their high pass rate, I like Smith's chances of throwing for multiple touchdowns.
Pick: Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-110)
Packers vs. Rams
Jordan Whittington
Over 3.5 Receptions (-220)
This is a heavily juiced prop, but it's still one of my favorites of the week. Jordan Whittington is a sixth-round pick who wasn't expected to have a big role in his rookie season. Due to injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, though, he has been thrust into a much high-profile position in the Rams offense.
In Week 4, he ran a route on 88% of dropbacks and hauled in six of eight targets for 62 yards. We know that Matthew Stafford loves to lock in on a receiver once he establishes a connection with them, and he hasn't been able to do that with Tutu Atwell or Demarcus Robinson the last couple of seasons. Don't be surprised if Whittington is the top-producing wide receiver in this offense in the next few weeks.
This week, Whittington has a nice matchup against the Packers, who are below the league average in PFF's grades against the pass and EPA against the pass.
Pick: Jordan Whittington Over 3.5 Receptions (-220)
