PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season, and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Let's dive right into his top two NFL player prop picks for tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between the Saints and Chiefs, featuring picks for Xavier Worthy, Juwan Johnson.
NFL Player Prop Picks
- Xavier Worthy Over 48.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120, DraftKings)
- Juwan Johnson o2.5 receptions (+125, Caesars)
The big news stemming from the Chiefs Week 4 win against the Chargers is that Rashee Rice will miss significant time with a knee injury.
In his absence, I expect explosive rookie Xavier Worthy to see more opportunities for a Chiefs offense suddenly devoid of playmakers.
Worthy has cleared this line in two of his four games thus far. He’s averaging 9.7 yards per opportunity (which I’m defining as rush attempts plus targets), and has an 82% route participation rate on Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks (surprisingly strong for a rookie in Andy Reid’s system).
The role is elite, and today should be a sneaky matchup for him to produce. The Saints run man coverage at a top 6 rate (per Pro Football Focus). Worthy’s otherworldly speed should play tonight, as we’ve seen from other burners against the Saints.
I have Worthy projected to touch the ball six times tonight, which should translate closer to 60 total yards. This is playable to over 52.5 yards.
Don’t check the box scores on this one, because if you do, you’ll notice Johnson is under this line in each game this season. However, I see this as a stealthy breakout game for the fifth year pro.
The Chiefs have really struggled defending tight-ends. Mike Gesicki (seven catches), Isaiah Likely (nine), and Kyle Pitts (only two catches, but 59 yards), all have had big games against Kansas City.
And what they all have in common with Johnson is a high rate of lining up in the slot. Last week, Johnson aligned in the slot on 14 of his 27 routes run.
Taysom Hill will miss this game, and Foster Moreau has not run more than 10 routes since Week 1. With the Chiefs employing a two-high safety look to protect against the speedy Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, I expect Johnson to see some underneath targets.
I have Johnson projected at three catches, making this a value spot at plus odds. This is playable to +110 odds.
