NFL Player Prop Picks | Week 14
In the table below, you'll find each of the NFL player props that we're betting from Sunday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Colts vs. Bengals
Zach Moss
Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-115)
The Bengals are allowing 4.5 yards per carry to running backs this season, which ranks 28th in the NFL. More importantly for this prop, 6.3% of all rushes against them have gained 15 or more yards, which is fourth-highest.
In a neutral game script, you can expect a heavy dose of Colts RB Zack Moss, who handled 93% of the workload in Indianapolis' backfield last week. That's right in line with what Moss' role has been without Jonathan Taylor this season. His current rushing attempts prop sits at 18.5 with the over rather heavily juice for a player prop.
In the seven games Moss has received 11 or more carries this season, he has had a carry gain at least 15 yards in five of those games. While Moss does not necessarily have the reputation of an explosive running back, 28% of his rushing total this season has come off explosive runs, which is the 12th highest out of all backs with 500 rushing yards on the season. He's breaking off long runs at a rate in line with the likes of Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall.
Pick: Zach Moss Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-115)
Colts vs. Bengals
Zach Moss
Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Moss played 94% of offensive snaps last week and got 27 touches. Now, he gets an awesome matchup.
Since Week 8, the Bengals are allowing the seventh highest yards per rush to zone rushes, which 79.4% of Moss’ runs come on. Moss should turn the volume he’s going to get into more than the 57 rushing yards he had last week, especially in a game where rain is expected.
Pick: Zach Moss Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Colts vs. Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase
Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
If there was any worry about how the Bengals offense would look and what Chase's roll would be with Jake Browning under center, that worry is almost entirely gone. The Bengals continue to pass at one of the highest rates in the league sitting at 62.21% over the last three games, which would rank fifth in the league.
Chase may have only had six targets in Browning's first start, but that was a game where the Bengals only threw the ball 26 times because they only ran 41 offensive plays. In Chase last outing, he went off for 149 receiving yards on 12 targets and was targeted in every area of the field.
The matchup here is mediocre but even if this was a tough one, this number would be too low. I'd hit this line all the way up to 75.5.
Pick: Ja'Marr Chase Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Texans vs. Jets
Brevin Jordan
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+370)
By Sam Farley
The injury to Texans rookie sensation Tank Dell was a huge blow to C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense, but somebody needs to fill that void and catch passes. Last week against the Broncos, we saw tight end Brevin Jordan catch three of his five targets for 64 yards. Jordan only had seven targets all season up to this point, but I think we're going to see an uptick in his usage in the coming weeks.
That bodes very well for Jordan, who now matches up against the Jets. New York has allowed a league-high seven touchdowns to TEs. At these odds, I think there's value to be had on Jordan getting his second score of the season, especially with Dalton Schultz, the Texans' starting tight end, not practicing on Friday.
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Texans vs. Jets
Tyler Conklin
Over 2.5 Receptions (-145) | 5+ Receptions (+450)
The Texans defense tends to funnel the ball toward the middle of the field by design in something of an umbrella zone, and Houston has allowed more receptions to opposing tight ends than any team (81 total, 6.75 per game). The Texans have allowed 12 opposing tight ends to record at least three catches, one per game, and eight tight ends to hit at least five catches.
Conklin isn't much, but he's been a security blanket for Wilson and might get a bunch of looks since Wilson will likely be under pressure all game. Conklin has at least three catches in nine of 12 games (75%), but that goes up to 7-of-8 (88%) when Wilson starts and finishes a game.
Pick: Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 Receptions (-145) | 5+ Receptions (+450)
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Broncos vs. Chargers
Courtland Sutton
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
By Sam Farley
Only the Commanders have given up more passing yards than the Chargers, so we need to focus our eyes on the Broncos' pass catchers for this divisional clash.
With Courtland Sutton having clearly established himself as Russell Wilson's favorite target this season with nine touchdowns scored in 12 games, he's best poised to have a big game against this awful Chargers defense. These odds don't seem to align with just how dangerous he's been in the red zone this season.
Pick: Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Broncos vs. Chargers
Courtland Sutton
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Sutton has a touchdown in five of his last six games and nine out of 10. He's clearly the receiver Russell Wilson prefers to target in the red zone. He’s a big-body receiver who can highpoint the ball well, which sets up nicely for this matchup.
When a player has scored in nine out of 12 games, it’s rare that you get close to 2-1 odds, especially against a defensive that has been getting beat by the pass all year. Among all wide receivers, Sutton ranks sixth in red zone targets and third in touchdowns.
Pick: Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
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Bills vs. Chiefs
Josh Allen
Over 30.5 Rush Yards (-110) | 50+ (+230) | 75+ (+925)
We usually get points in this matchup, so that sets up well for prop overs.
Josh Allen rushing overs are the first thing I look for in every big Buffalo game. The pattern for years now has been the Bills saving Allen's legs in less important games, then dialing up designed runs and extra scrambles in the games that matter most. Allen has the most EPA on QB scrambles this season, and the numbers from recent years speak for themselves.
In 22 games against non-playoff teams over the past two years, Allen has run 6.4 times for 39.5 yards. In 16 games against playoff teams, those numbers spike to 8.7 rushes for 53.0 yards. This year, in four games against presumed playoff games, Allen's at 7.8 runs for 44.5 yards and over this line in three of the four, compared to just 4.4 carries for 20.5 yards in the other eight games.
This prop has been money against the Chiefs in particular. Allen has at least seven rushes and at least 32 yards in all five games against Kansas City, averaging 9.2 carries for 57.8 yards and going over this line in all five at 32, 59, 42, 68, and 88 yards. All the better if Chiefs linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill are still out. I'll play multiple units on Over 30.5 and also sprinkle 50+ yards at +320 with just a dash of hope on 75+ yards at +1425 (bet365).
Pick: Josh Allen Over 30.5 Rush Yards (-110) | 50+ (+230) | 75+ (+925)
Bills vs. Chiefs
James Cook
Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Cook is having a solid season, and this week's matchup is a good one for him.
The Chiefs have been one of the best pass defenses in the league this season, ranking third in pass DVOA and allowing just 183 passing yards per game. Their rush defense, though, has been a different story, ranking in the bottom five in DVOA and yards allowed per carry.
The spread of this game is close, and we've seen the Bills hammer the ball on the ground in good matchups this season. I have Cook projected for 15 yards over this number and would hit it all the way to 55.5.
Pick: James Cook Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Bills vs. Chiefs
Jerick McKinnon
Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | 50+ (+725)
The Bills rank top three in most receptions and yards allowed to opposing backs, and they've already allowed four RBs this season to catch at least five passes for 50 yards. Jerick McKinnon had 5/54 in that playoff shootout, and he's a dangerous weapon and a terrific pass blocker so he could be on the field a lot with Isaiah Pacheco out and Clyde Edwards-Helaire untrustworthy. I'll play McKinnon over 16.5 receiving yards (BetRivers), a ridiculously low line he's gone over in 6-of-10 games even in this quiet season.
McKinnon hasn't hit 50 receiving yards this year but did it four times the back half of last season and led the league's RBs in receiving DVOA and EPA, and he can get most of that on one long play with his speed, so I'm compelled to play the 50+ receiving yards at +1075 too (bet365) as a mis-priced escalator.
I got this prop earlier in the week at 16.5 yards. I'd still play the over at 19.5, but be sure to shop for the best number.
