AJ Brown Over 69.5 Receiving Yards -110
Eagles vs. Buccaneers | 7:15 p.m. ET
After putting up an underwhelming stat line in a soft matchup against the Vikings, cameras caught a feisty interaction between Eagles stars A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts.
While Brown publicly squashed the notion of any beef between him and his quarterback, Week 3’s Monday Night Football matchup against the Buccaneers is a great spot to get Brown the ball.
Brown was over this line in 11 of his 17 regular season games last season, averaging 88 receiving yards per game. With virtually the same target competition this season, I’m expecting a similar hit rate in 2023 (so far, he’s eclipsed this line in one of two games).
The Bucs have struggled against opposing wide-outs this season. Through two games, Tampa’s secondary has allowed 191 yards per game to wide receivers. Justin Jefferson (150 yards) and DJ Moore (104) both had huge games – this shows me that the Bucs are struggling to defend opponents’ number one receiving options, which I expect Brown to be tonight.
The Bucs’ best cornerback, Carlton Davis, did miss the game against the Bears, and is questionable tonight. Even if he does play, I still love this matchup for Brown. Davis, a bigger cornerback, should struggle to use his physicality against the 227-pound Brown.
Plus, Davis allowed the 12th most receiving yards per game amongst qualified cornerbacks last season (per Pro Football Focus).
Hurts and the Eagles running backs have a tough matchup on the ground against a Bucs run defense that’s held their opponents to a combined 108 rush yards through two games.
Between the plus matchup and maybe some added incentive to get Brown the ball, I see this as a break-out spot for the Pro Bowl receiver. I have Brown projected close to 80 receiving yards. I bet this at 69.5 (the line is moving, but you can still find some books with this number) and I would play this line to over 71.5.
