Brian Robinson Jr. Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-105)
Bears vs. Commanders | 8:15 p.m. ET
In his second NFL season, Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. has taken full control as the early down workhorse. Through four games, Robinson’s 61 rush attempts represent 81% of the team's total RB carries.
With backup Antonio Gibson playing more of a receiving role, it’s become a bit more palatable to predict Robinson’s usage — and the Thursday Night Football matchup against the Bears presents an opportunity for the Commanders to pound the rock.
Robinson has exceeded this line in two of four games this season. The splits are obvious: in the Commanders' two wins, Robinson has totaled 18 and 19 carries. In the two losses (against the stout run defenses of the Bills and Eagles), Robinson only managed 10 and 14 rushes.
The game against the Bears figures to feature more of the neutral-to-positive game script needed for Robinson to be fed. The Bears rush defense ranks 21st in DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
Teams are looking to take advantage of Chicago’s struggles versus the run. Per RotoViz, teams are calling run plays against the Bears 48% of the time in neutral game scripts – the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.
While I’m not necessarily predicting the Commanders to run away with a victory, I feel comfortable in them controlling game flow and time of possession.
I have Robinson projected at 18 rush attempts on Thursday night, and I would play this line up to -135.
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